Big-race preview & tips: Al Shaqab Lockinge Stakes at Newbury
By Sporting Life
16:37 · FRI May 17, 2024
We have tips, views from connections and key video replays for the Group 1 Al Shaqab Lockinge Stakes at Newbury.
3.35 Newbury - Lockinge tips
Matt Brocklebank - Dear My Friend (E.W)
We’ve seen horses hit the frame in the Lockinge at 80/1, 33/1 (x2), 25/1, 22/1 (x2), 20/1 and 16/1 (x2) in the past decade alone and DEAR MY FRIEND could be the latest to outrun his price in the Newbury Group 1. He’s improved again following wind surgery and being gelded in the autumn, winning three in the row before a forgettable effort under a big weight at Newcastle last time. He’s had a short break and could surprise a few people back on the turf this weekend, though Big Rock and Inspiral are formidable opponents if able to bring their best form first time out for the year.
David Ord - Big Rock
A fascinating clash in the Lockinge with BIG ROCK and Inspiral squaring off. Preference is for the French raider who has a stable switch and potentially livelier ground to overcome, but he came a long way in a short space of time last year and could come forward again with another winter under his belt. Inspiral is clearly a huge threat – and the faster the ground the better her chance of keeping the prize in Britain – while Charyn can confirm Sandown form with Poker Face and chase the big two home.
Timeform Top Rated
Big Rock (1lb clear)
Timeform Pace Map
Pace Forecast : Strong
Draw Bias : Against Low
Specific Pace Hint : The expectation that the pace will be strong at a trip and track where prominent racers are usually favoured anyway still shouldn’t really tip the scales away from BIG ROCK (FR) in favour of INSPIRAL.
Individual Price Hint : INSPIRAL is likely to be held up off the lead so given our pace calculations isn't one to give up on early given her record of winning after trading much higher than Betfair SP.
What the connections say
It is very much the first day at school for Maurizio Guarnieri as he prepares to saddle Big Rock in the Al Shaqab Lockinge Stakes at Newbury.
Big Rock was rated the best miler in the world last year when trained by Christopher Head, but Guarnieri only welcomed the four-year-old to his Chantilly stables three weeks ago after owners Yeguada Centurion SL. decided on a switch for the new season.
The French-based Italian admits he is still getting to grips with his new charge, relying on the assistance of the colt’s regular pilot Aurelien Lemaitre to guide him in the right direction.
“I received the horse three weeks ago, so I am just starting to get to know him and he is just starting to get know me,” said Guarnieri.
“He is a nice horse, like a nice man, he is quiet all the time and causes no problems, he is very easy.
“I did a canter with him on the racetrack at Chantilly with a lead horse and his rider Aurelien Lemaitre and he did the minimum, so I’m not sure if he is ready to run and what percent of his potential he is at or not. But his jockey said he is always this way and the horse is always quiet in the morning. A lot of good horses are this way.
“I appreciate having this horse and each day I learn a little bit more about him, but at the moment I do not understand 100 per cent of him.”
Big Rock is a brilliant winner of the QEII
Big Rock has finished in the top two in 10 of his 11 career starts and having filled the spot of bridesmaid in races such as the Prix du Jockey Club and Prix du Moulin, finished 2023 with a deserved victory in the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes on British Champions Day.
The Rock Of Gibraltar colt relished the rain-softened ground at Ascot that day and Guarnieri is hoping for even more rain at Newbury as he assesses his charge’s big-race credentials.
“He’s in good condition and he’s really good mentally and this race was always the first on his programme so we will run and try,” continued the Italian.
“I think this race is very, very hard and there is not only Inspiral who can win the race. Big Rock has not run since 2023 so there is a lot we don’t know.
“But the jockey knows the horse and has ridden him every time, so there is a big feeling put on them and I hope they can do the best job for me.
“I hope it will start to rain, when it rains it is normally better for us. I’m hoping Big Rock can show his class in this race and I will be doing everything in my power to make him better.
“It’s a new start for both me and the owner and I thank them for the opportunity, we are looking forward to not just this race but also the whole season.”
In contrast, connections of Inspiral are hoping to see minimal rainfall ahead of her return to action.
The John and Thady Gosden-trained five-year-old claimed the scalp of Big Rock when defending her Prix Jacques le Marois crown last summer before going on to win both the Sun Chariot Stakes and land a blow over further at the Breeders’ Cup.
However, she has never been at her best when there is cut in the ground and connections will be keeping a close eye on the weather forecasts.
“We hope to run, we’ve declared, we’ll just have to watch the forecast and see what happens,” said Chris Richardson, managing director of owners Cheveley Park Stud, who are also represented by the Gosden-trained Audience in the race.
“She didn’t enjoy soft ground when she ran in the Sussex and it’s still early in the year. We think she’s in good form, but we don’t want to risk her on ground which doesn’t suit as she is unlikely to put her best foot forward.
“She seems to come good in June and maybe that is the way it will work out again. We’d like to get her out earlier if we can, but we’ll see what happens between now and Saturday and see what John decides.
“The two of them (Inspiral and Audience) have been working together for the last few weeks and he is in there to make sure there’s pace in the race.”
Inspiral wins the Coronation Stakes
John Gosden also has concerns about her draw in stall one: “We’re on wing of the field in one and all the pace is high, so that is a concern. At the moment she runs, but I will obviously be walking the course.”
While Big Rock and Inspiral are making their returns, Roger Varian’s consistent performer Charyn has made hay in the early part of the season, with the versatile son of Dark Angel now back to Group One company in search of a hat-trick.
Varian said: “The rain won’t harm Charyn, but he’s a versatile horse in terms of ground and we won’t mind conditions on Saturday. It’s a nice position to be in when you are not sweating on the weather and he is in good form.
“Although he didn’t win last year, on three or four of his performances, he only had to repeat that level to win the two races he has done so far. He wasn’t facing Paddington in his last two starts.
“His fourth in the Irish 2,000 Guineas, his third in both the St James’s Palace and the Sussex Stakes, all of those performances I think were good enough to do what he has done so far at Doncaster and Sandown.
“With that said, I was very impressed with him at Sandown and he was very powerful through the line. He will have to do more to win the Lockinge, but he goes there as one of the frontrunners in the market and deservedly so, and it is exciting.”
Charyn impressed when coming through the pack strongly to win the bet365 Mile at Sandown, with Ed and Simon Crisford’s Poker Face back in second and now looking to turn the tables.
The race also sees the return of last year’s 2000 Guineas third Royal Scotsman for Paul and Oliver Cole, while Karl Burke’s Flight Plan finished last season in the winner’s enclosure and is another dipping his toe into deeper waters.
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