The Foxes gets the better of White Birch in the Dante

Big-race preview & tip: Betfred Derby at Epsom

By David Ord

Horse Racing

Sat June 03, 2023 · 3y ago

We have a tip, view from connections and key video replays for the Betfred Derby at Epsom on Saturday.

Timeform tip - Military Order

A wide-open renewal with plenty of progressive and unexposed colts but MILITARY ORDER's win at Lingfield was the most convincing of all the trials, so this brother to 2021 Derby winner Adayar has plenty going for him with his stamina guaranteed.

Passenger arguably would have won the Dante at York (on only his second career start) had he not been forced to wait for a gap so he is high on the shortlist along with Chester Vase winner Arrest, who should continue to improve.

"I couldn't go near Auguste Rodin" | Tips and best bets for the Derby at Epsom 2023

Timeform top rated: Military Order 131p

Timeform pace info

Pace Forecast : Very Strong

Draw Bias : N/A

Specific Pace Hint: Horses ridden patiently are usually favoured at this trip here and a strongly-run race will assist AUGUSTE RODIN (IRE) even more than usual while MILITARY ORDER (IRE) could suffer.

Individual Price Hint: WHITE BIRCH is likely to be dropped out early on so considering the probable pace scenario has a good chance of trading much higher than Betfair SP as he has done before in a similar situation.

What the trainers say

Aidan O'Brien - Auguste Rodin, Adelaide River & San Antonio: “Auguste Rodin was never going to run again over a mile anyway. He was always going to step up, he very much has a middle-distance pedigree. He’s a beautiful moving horse and good ground will be what he’d always prefer.

“He’s a very athletic horse, he’s close coupled, a very good mover – he wouldn’t break glass, the way he moves. We’re very happy with him physically, he’s in good form. He’s nice and fresh and we think he’s fit, that’s all you could hope for really.”

“Adelaide River, he’s a straightforward horse. He ran in Chester, the ground got soft and we don’t think he’s a soft ground horse.

“He’s an Australia out of a War Front mare and that would all suggest better ground. We think he does stay, he’d be happy to go forward and be ridden handy. He’s experienced and we’ve been happy with him.

“The other horse, San Antonio, he won his first race this year in Dundalk and then he went to Chester on soft ground. He’s never run this far but it will be interesting as well, his dam was second in the Irish Oaks and he’s by Dubawi so he’s a straightforward, honest horse too.”

Alan Cooper, racing manager to Niarchos Family - Passenger: “The Derby is a race I think every owner and breeder would like to win as it is the biggest test of a three-year-old colt. I think Passenger has a nice draw in the middle of the field in seven and I guess we will know more at (around) 1.35pm on Saturday. Sir Michael is happy with his horse.”

“It was a good education for him at York, it was only his second run and he will have learnt a little more about racing. Hopefully that will stand him in good stead on Saturday.

“The trip is the unknown as he has never been that far before, but he’s given us every indication he can do. We will not know for certain until he tries.”

Charlie Appleby - Military Order: “We’ve done nothing extra with him since his win at Lingfield and he has just been going through his usual routine. We have been pleased with his preparation and he has ticked every box. He is going into the race looking great.

“We know he will stay the trip and hopefully he should handle the track, but we all know in any of these races we need a bit of Lady Luck with us then we have half a chance.”

Thady Gosden - Arrest: “He’s got the stamina, to do what he did at Chester in ground like that shows he’s got the stamina, no problem. Stamina is a requirement in this race, the same for the Kentucky Derby going a mile and a quarter for the Americans, they see it as a marathon.

“Stamina-wise you never really know until you go the mile and a half, you really don’t. Everybody thinks this is a downhill track, but it’s uphill, it rises 150 feet before you start going downhill, then you have a last section which climbs before the finish and it can catch a lot out on stamina.”

Andrew Balding - The Foxes: “I thought he was really good in the Dante,” said Balding. “I thought he travelled like the best horse in the race and he finished off strong. He is not a horse that is going to win by large margins, but he is tough in the finish.

“The way he settled at York and the way he travelled and the way he finished his race gives us hope that he will stay a mile and a half.

“Epsom this year could be different to other years if we are led to believe what we read that there might be disruptions going on, but I think he is going to be less bothered about what is going on than other horses we have run in the race in the past.”

Ralph Beckett - Artistic Star: “He is a grand, straightforward horse. He was quite a late foal and he’s going to carry on developing through the year, but I sincerely hope and suspect that he’ll cope with the whole jamboree, as he’s a very hardy horse.

“Whether he’s good enough I don’t know, but Jeff likes his trainers to be on the front foot and he ran to a good figure at Sandown last time. He’s not a big horse and he’s well balanced, so he should go round Epsom all right. It looks quite open so I’m looking forward to it.”

Shane Foley - Sprewell: “He was very impressive in Leopardstown and has been pleasing us at home. The dream is definitely alive. Anything he did as a two-year-old was going to be a bonus and we were lucky to get a couple of runs into him. He has really developed into a proper staying three-year-old and is a good horse.

“If there is anyone that can have them primed and ready for the day, it’s Jessie. The trip should be fine for him – I think he’ll get a mile and a half no problem. To get a horse like him is what all the early mornings are about. It looks one of the most open Derbys in a long time and it’s great to have one in the mix.”

Danny Muscutt - Dubai Mile: “We were happy with him going into the Guineas and he ran a stormer. I was pleased with how he stuck on up the rising ground and he galloped out really good.

“The dip at Newmarket can catch some horses out, but he has handled it great both times so he ticks the boxes regarding being able to handle the undulations and downhill run to Tattenham Corner.”