Big-race analysis: Nun too positive | Can Battaash be beaten in the Nunthorpe?
Ben Linfoot looks at whether the three-year-olds can take down Battaash in the Nunthorpe and is tempted in by a William Haggas-trained juvenile in the Gimcrack.
Tough for three-year-olds in the Nunthorpe
Battaash keeps on rising to new challenges, so much so that the bookies are now betting on whether he can break his own course records.
Paddy Power go 7/2 that he can go under the blistering 55.90 seconds that he clocked in the Nunthorpe last year, but Wednesday’s rain looks to have scuppered his chances of doing so even if Thursday was a drying day.
If he is at his best, and there remains the hint of an 'if' for this hot-wired but awesome sprinter, then Friday’s opponents have a huge figure to reach for to overhaul him.
That looks unlikely, but if he’s slightly below par they have a chance and none more so than Art Power and A'Ali, two improving three-year-olds that have the king of sprints in their sights.
Art Power, like Battaash, is a son of Dark Angel and looks ready for this assignment now after being fast-tracked through the grades in mightily impressive fashion this season.
Three starts ago, on his seasonal reappearance in June, he was romping to victory in a Newcastle novice, but since then he’s won a red-hot Royal Ascot handicap that worked out well, easily, before a Group Three victory over a Group One winner in Millisle at Naas.
A’Ali started his season at Newcastle, too, where he was well beaten in the Pavilion Stakes, but dropping back to five has reinvigorated him.
Firstly he cantered to the Group Three Coral Charge at Sandown, and then he too went over to Ireland where he landed the Group Two Sapphire Stakes at the Curragh from Make A Challenge.
Both colts are fresh blood in the division, but it is tough for three-year-olds against the more-experienced sprinters in Group Ones.
Since 1997 there have been 32 three-year-old winners of Group One sprints in the UK, when racing against their elders (we’re discounting the Commonwealth Cup here), from 345 runners at a win strike-rate of just 9.28%.
In the Nunthorpe alone, in the same timeframe, there have been just five three-year-old winners from 74 representatives at 6.76% - the winners being Sole Power at 100/1, Margot Did at 20/1, Mozart at 4/9, Oasis Dream at 4/9 and Stravinsky at Evens.
Wins for the Classic generation in this race have either had the surprise element or have been achieved by an exceptional sprinter.
And, if a top-form Battaash is beaten by one of the three-year-olds on Friday, you sense the winner will be a bit of both.
The only way is up for Yaz
It’s usually tough to find a bad William Haggas stat anywhere but particularly at York and his record with talented juveniles at the track is unsurprisingly excellent.
Singling out his two-year-olds in Group races on the Knavesmire since 2003 reveals a record of seven winners from 20 runners at 35% with a not-too-shoddy 65.26% of rivals beaten.
Three of those seven winners came in the Gimcrack thanks to Conquest in 2006, Approve in 2010 and Ajaya in 2015, so it’s natural to lean towards his representative in Friday’s renewal, especially when said horse is top-rated and freely available at 9/2.
Yazaman is the colt in question and though he has three seconds to his name from his last three runs he’s been at least a little unlucky in all those races.
In the Windsor Castle he found trouble in-running a few times when runner-up behind Tactical and then he had to switch to the centre in the July Stakes when second to the same rival.
Then in the Richmond Stakes at Goodwood last time he was put in his place by Clive Cox’s Supremacy, but he finished quite well having been one of the first off the bridle and the track hardly looked to suit the son of Kodiac.
York should be right up his street and the fact he’s racked up plenty of experience relative to his Gimcrack rivals should hold him in good stead, too.
With plenty of pace drawn to his outside this could play out nicely for him and, while there are some promising horses in opposition, he sets a pretty tough standard and it would be no surprise if those Haggas numbers look even healthier come Friday afternoon.
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