Auguste Rodin winning at Doncaster

Betfred Derby preview: David Ord on the challenge facing Auguste Rodin

By David Ord

Horse Racing

Mon May 15, 2023 · 3y ago

Can Auguste Rodin really win a Derby on the back of that Newmarket run? David Ord looks at the case for and against.

I don’t know if Aidan O’Brien is a Shania Twain fan, I’m guessing he might be, but the Canadian warbler’s seminal 1997 album 'Come On Over' seems to have been on his playlist for the last two weeks.

It's not That Don't Impress Me Much that's his Betfred Derby soundtrack either - but You're Still The One.

For Auguste Rodin remains the Ballydoyle top seed for Epsom despite his QIPCO 2000 Guineas blowout. He flew over to Newmarket - on the Friday rather than Saturday morning due to security restrictions relating to the King's coronation - amid talk of the Triple Crown, but boarded the plane back to Ireland with those dreams in tatters and his place at the head of the Derby market threatened from all angles.

But not back home. Despite a host of other suitors looking over the stable doors at Ballydoyle, Aidan only has eyes for the son of Deep Impact.

San Antonio powers home at Chester

San Antonio landed Thursday’s Boodles Dee Stakes at Chester but caused barely a ripple in the ante-post market – or indeed the trainer’s battleplan for Epsom.

Asked if there was any change in the pecking order for the Derby, O’Brien replied: “Not really. We’ve always thought the world of Auguste Rodin as everything came so easily to him. He’s come out of the Guineas well and will go to straight for the Derby.”

He’s still the one he runs to, and there are examples of the genius of O’Brien bringing horses back from similar Newmarket no-shows to peak Classic performances in a matter of weeks.

Graham Cunningham outlined plenty on this week’s Sporting Life Racing Podcast.

Power, sent off at 7/1, finished 17th of 18 behind stablemate Camelot in the 2012 2000 Guineas but three weeks later was a completely different proposition when winning the Irish equivalent.

Roderic O’Connor was fully 38 lengths behind Frankel on that unforgettable May afternoon in 2012 finishing 11th of 13. Sent to the Curragh, he beat Dubawi Gold to taste Classic glory, having been 32 lengths adrift of the runner-up earlier in the month.

It’s happened with the fillies too. Misty For Me dropped away tamely on the first Sunday of May to finish 11th of 18th behind Blue Bunting. She then won the Irish 1000 before June rolled around.

So did Yesterday who in fairness performed to market expectations when only eighth behind Russian Rhythm at HQ but found nearly eight lengths of improvement in just 21 days to beat Newmarket runner-up Six Perfections on home soil.

Guineas to Derby record

O’Brien has taken the direct route to Epsom from the 2000 Guineas on nine previous occasions.

Two have won, Camelot in 2012 and Australia 2014. But both ran well in the Guineas. The former beating French Fifteen a neck to win the first colts’ Classic and setting off on a road that almost carried him to his own elusive Triple Crown.

Australia looked every inch a Derby colt in finishing third behind Night Of Thunder and Kingman, winning the race on his side of the track. And that’s exactly what he proved to be.

Two colts finished second at Epsom on their second visits of the year to England – but again both had run well on their first.

Hawk Wing developed the frustrating habit of bumping into a crackerjack stablemate that spring. Second to Rock Of Gibraltar at Newmarket, he was outstayed by High Chaparral at Epsom.

High Chaparral masters Hawk Wing at Epsom

In 2007 Eagle Mountain went into the stalls for the Derby off the back of finishing fifth behind Cockney Rebel in the Guineas. More experienced than most at Epsom, he led home the chasing pack as Authorized surged clear to give Frankie Dettori a long-awaited first win in the blue riband.

Rip Van Winkle and Saxon Warrior fared next best when finishing fourth in the June sunshine.

The former had filled the same place behind Sea The Stars at Newmarket. Saxon Warrior won the Guineas and was sent off at 4/5 to follow up at Epsom but failed to become the first horse to be drawn one to win the Derby.

He didn’t run badly but got a rear view of Masar and Roaring Lion, behind him at Newmarket, this time around.

There was tragedy in 2006 with Horatio Nelson, eighth in the Guineas, breaking a leg two furlongs out while the wonderfully named King Of Kings won the Guineas but finished last of 15 at Epsom, sustaining an injury that prematurely ended his career.

The other horse to have taken the direct route was Mars in 2013 who finished sixth in both Classics.

So there are positives and negatives to take with Auguste Rodin. O’Brien has turned Classic horses around with even less time to work his magic before. But never in the Derby - because he hasn't had to. Those who ran at Newmarket before winning at Epsom performed well in the Guineas. The ones that bombed out were found alternative targets.

Auguste Rodin hasn't, the trainer’s faith in the colt is unwavering. He’s still the one – whatever happens at York next week.

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