Betfred Derby outsiders: Who can outrun their odds at Epsom?

And just look at the roll of honour. Sea Bird, Nijinsky, Mill Reef, Shergar, Galileo, Sea The Stars, we’re talking the crème de la crème.

But a modern phenomenon has developed over the last six seasons and just for the ease of categorisation we’ll call it the 'Epsom Hail Mary'. For every renewal since 2017 has seen a horse priced at least 20/1 hit the frame.

They’ve even had the audacity to win it twice, Wings Of Eagles at 40/1 in 2017 and the remarkable front-running triumph of Serpentine (25/1), both trained by Aidan O’Brien. Third behind the latter was Amhran Na Bhnfiann, another runner for the winning trainer and one who was sent off at 66/1.

But this isn’t merely a result of Ballydoyle throwing numerous darts at the board - indeed Japan, third at 20/1, is their only other colt on the list. He was behind four better-fancied stablemates in the betting when hitting the frame behind his near-neighbour Anthony Van Dyck in 2019.

No others have got in on the act.

Owner Ahmad Al Shaikh has a big player this time around in Group One winner and 2000 Guineas fifth Dubai Mile. But he has plenty to live up to with the owner’s last two runners, Hoo Ya Mal (150/1) and Khalifa Sat (50/1) finishing second to Desert Crown and Serpentine respectively.

Subsequent Irish Derby hero Westover was third last year at 25/1, Mojo Star twice that price when runner-up to Adayar in 2021.

Dee Ex Bee (20/1) chased home 16/1 winner Masar in 2018.

Who are the lively Derby outsiders this time?

So... as we head into what most people consider to be a wide-open renewal of the Classic on Saturday, who are the contenders who could follow the above onto the Epsom honours board at huge prices?

It’s not an exact science but a stayer who is going to sit handy looks a solid place to start. And there's one. And he's trained by O’Brien.

Covent Garden is available at 100/1. He’s a son of Galileo and a full-brother to Johannes Vermeer who stayed two miles and finished second in a Melbourne Cup.

His younger sibling doesn’t have the form to win a Derby but produced a career-best performance stepped up to a mile-and-five at Navan last time. He went forward in first-time blinkers there – and let’s be fair there’s zero chance of him sitting behind Auguste Rodin, for example, on Saturday.

It isn't hard to envisage him still being in the first three as they head past the three-furlong marker and from there you’re relying on traffic problems behind and/or the petrol tank emptying on hold-up horses who might not possess copper-bottomed stamina for this test.

And there are a few of those.

Stablemate San Antonio is untested at the trip but won his trial (the Dee Stakes at Chester) and is bred to be very good being a son of Dubawi out of Irish Oaks runner-up Rain Goddess.

He hasn’t been on the Derby radar for a little while. His trainer hasn’t name-checked him in the recent dispatches and while he was thought to be heading for the French Derby, he’s been left in at Epsom and at the moment Adelaide River, Cairo and Continuous are the three Ballydoyle entries at Chantilly. But Aidan is still inclined to stump up the euros and head to Paris with his Roodee winner. He's clearly only in as cover for Auguste Rodin and if he turns up he won't be priced up in the Hail Mary bracket.

Best of the rest

Of the others at bigger prices King Of Steel was withdrawn at the start of the Dante at York having become unsettled in the stalls. Derby day and all that goes with it – which obviously could be amplified on Saturday – has to be a huge concern.

Dear My Friend was eighth in the Dante and could go forward in the Derby but he hasn’t truly convinced he gets ten furlongs in two starts at the trip – let alone a searching mile-and-a-half.

Artistic Star is promising but impossible to assess after two wins from two but we have to try and on Timeform ratings has about two stone to find with the pick of these on the bare bones of his Sandown reappearance victory.

And they, ladies and gentleman, are your Betfred Derby outsiders. There are fewer than there have been in recent years, but we are 7/2 the field - that's why.

It's open - wide open - but can you see a 'who'd a thunk it' hitting the frame again?

Well if you can the freewheeling Ballydoyle stayer might just be the way to go...again.

More from Sporting Life

• Racecards
• Fast results
• Full results and free video replays
• Horse racing news
• Horse racing tips
• Horse racing features
• Download our free iOS and Android app
• Football and other sports tips
• Podcasts and video content

Safer gambling

We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.

If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.

Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org