Betfred Derby Festival preview: Tips for the three Group Ones

Are you for or against Benvenuto Cellini in the Betfred Derby?

Andrew Asquith: I’m against him. Benvenuto Cellini looks a little short in the betting to me, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he drifts as the week goes on after the torrential downpour Epsom received in the early hours of Tuesday morning and with more rain forecast given he looks a much better horse on a sound surface.

He was good at Chester last time on ground Timeform described as good to firm, but his previous run in heavy ground in the Futurity wasn’t as good, so that has to be a slight concern if you’re going in at short prices.

John Ingles: He won well at Chester, but the opposition seemingly didn’t amount to much, so he looks worth opposing. He’s hardly head and shoulders above the rest in terms of ratings with nine of them covered by just 7 lb on the Timeform figures, and there are plenty of others in the field open to improvement. On that point, Benvenuto Cellini is already proven at a mile-and-a-half, whereas there are others with scope to take a bigger step forward tackling the trip for the first time.

David Ord: It's hard to be too strongly against him isn't it? He's bred to be a champion, is on the right trajectory to become one and after his win in the Chester Vase we know the trip won't be an issue and the track shouldn't be.

But on Timeform weight-adjusted ratings there's hardly clear blue water between Aidan O'Brien's charge and the rest. There's plenty of money around for stablemate Pierre Bonnard at the minute too and I won't be backing the favourite at 7/4 on Saturday.

Who do you rate as the best bet?

JI: Benvenuto Cellini’s stablemate ACTION is certainly one who’ll be suited by going up in distance as he’s in the very rare position of being a Derby candidate whose sire and dam have each produced winners of the race. Frankel sired the 2021 winner Adayar, while Action’s dam produced last year’s winner Lambourn.

He was in front of Benvenuto Cellini in the Futurity Trophy last year and he took quite a big step forward from his Sandown reappearance to finish second in the Dante. Looking at him in the paddock at York, he could well be the type who’ll keep improving through the year and at 25/1 in places he’s an each-way bet.

DO: I think both the Lingfield Trial one-two, Maltese Cross and Bay Of Brilliance firmly enter calculations but felt Dante winner Item was still a little rough around the edges at York and wouldn't be rushing in to back him at 10/3.

In contrast ANCIENT EGYPT looks overpriced at 16/1. Like most in the field we haven't seen the best of him yet and his only defeat to date came when patently not at his best in the Royal Lodge last autumn. There was plenty to like about his reappearance win in the Newmarket Stakes and while you take everything you see and hear at the Gallops Morning with a pinch of salt, he did seem to glide around Tattenham Corner.

A well-balanced son of Frankel he promises to relish stepping up to a mile-and-a-half and is just the sort to hit the frame in a modern Betfred Derby.

AA: The softening of the ground at Epsom won’t be a worry to BAY OF BRILLIANCE, being a son of New Bay, whose progeny often go well in softer conditions, and he has made giant strides in his short career so far.

The form of his maiden win worked out well, he bolted up in ground Timeform described at good to soft at Redcar, and to run Maltese Bay so close on his seasonal return and first start in pattern company in the Lingfield Derby Trial suggests he has plenty more to offer. He looks overpriced to me and any further rain should bring his stamina into play.

How do you see the Betfred Oaks?

AA: I was a big fan of LEGACY LINK last season and she did nothing to discourage my views when winning the Musidora on her return at York.

She looked fit beforehand but also impressed with her attitude in seeing off another promising filly, with K Sarra also catching the eye finishing well in third. That form isn’t far off the standard achieved by Amelia Earhart at Chester, and Legacy Link left the strong impression she’d take another step forward for moving up to a mile and a half.

Legacy Link is a superbly-bred Juddmonte filly, out of a sister to the outstanding Frankel, and there should be plenty more improvement to come from her.

DO: Precise is the best filly in the race but is weak in the market as we await news on her participation and isn't guaranteed to stay if she does turn up. I don't feel Amelia Earhart is bombproof and while Legacy Link did what she needed to do in the Musidora, she looks about the right price.

The one I like at around 7/1 is THUNDERING ON, a late-maturing daughter of Frankel. It took her four goes to break her maiden but when she did - she did it in style - storming clear in the Salsabil Stakes at Navan. That was her first run at ten furlongs, she'll devour a mile-and-a-half and the best is very much still to come from her.

JI: I wasn’t alone in putting AMELIA EARHART forward as my ante-post classic fancy at the start of the turf season, and having relished the step up in trip as expected in the Cheshire Oaks since then, she’s not one I’m going to abandon now, especially as another furlong or so at Epsom is bound to suit her well.

Aidan O’Brien complicates things – for Ryan Moore as much as anyone – by putting Precise in here too who boasts Group 1 winning form but isn’t such a cast-iron stayer. There’s stamina in Precise’s family, but if it comes down to a duel in the last couple of furlongs, I can see Amelia Earhart seeing it out the stronger.

And the winner of the Betfred Coronation Cup is?....

DO: I'm boring here I'm afraid and it's CALANDAGAN for me. He couldn't get past Jan Brueghel in the race last year, a performance at the time which saw plenty of people question his resolution.

Since then he's won five Group or Grade Ones on the bounce including the King George and QIPCO Champion Stakes at Ascot. Rivals will look to draw his sting again on Saturday but this time around he arrives at Epsom as a world champion and full of confidence. He has push-button acceleration that last year's conqueror and the really exciting Convergent won't be able to match if he brings his A Game to the table this time. I think he will.

AA: It is very hard to see past the claims of CALANDAGAN for me, who will be chasing his sixth straight victory in a Group 1.

Indeed, he was beaten by Jan Brueghel in this race 12 months ago, but their careers have rather gone on different paths since following a setback for 2024 St Leger last season.

There has been no crabbing of Calandagan’s attitude since that defeat and, given he’s won on soft ground a couple of times earlier in his career, and was only beaten half a length in the Champion Stakes in similar conditions a couple of years ago, there should be no complaints in that department, either.

JI: It’s a fascinating rematch from last year when Jan Brueghel got the better of CALANDAGAN by half-a-length, but I think they’ll finish the other way round this time. Mickael Barzalona was probably still getting to know Calandagan at Epsom last year but it’s a partnership that hasn’t been beaten since and European middle-distance form doesn’t come much better than beating Ombudsman and Almaqam which he did in the Champion Stakes last October.

Jan Brueghel hasn’t had such a straightforward twelve months since last year’s Coronation Cup, but his comeback win at Chester suggests he can make a race of it again.

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