David Ord shares his early thoughts on Saturday's bet365 Cambridgeshire at Newmarket, a race with a warm favourite this year.
WE NEED TO TALK ABOUT...
GAVRIEL
There’s nowhere else to start is there? Here’s a lightly-raced son of Frankel, out of a Group One-winning mare, who is on a steep upward curve and five pounds clear on Timeform ratings. Only second in on those figures, Beagle Bay, also has the 'p' symbol next to his rating indicating he’s capable of better. In Gavriel’s case it’s probably enough to make him a pattern performer down the line.
He looks to have been campaigned with this race in mind after a belated reappearance second at Kempton, swerving an entry at the Sky Bet Ebor Festival, before stepping up in trip on handicap debut at Ascot last time. He had plenty in hand there in beating subsequent Newbury winner Balzac by a length-and-three-quarters, travelling strongly and quickening up well when asked. He has a four-pound penalty and is a very worthy favourite.
John Gosden has a fine record in this race and this is the one horse in the contest with the potential to blow it apart. He’s 4/1 at the start of the week and could be even shorter on the day. If you’re looking to take him on you can point to inexperience, the fact he’s about to be tested in a big field for the first time, the very different examination the Rowley Mile presents compared to Kempton and Ascot, plus the possibility of being drawn on the wrong side.
I can’t put him up at 4/1 but whatever you back on Saturday, you’ll be keeping a close eye on the George Strawbridge silks, as well as your own selection’s, throughout the contest.
THE OTHER TWO FROM ASCOT
The day before Gavriel staked his own claim, Ascot also staged a Class 2 0-105 handicap on the straight mile. It was won by Hickory who saw off the improving three-year-old Moonfall, the front two likely to head back to Berkshire for their next starts in either the BetMGM Challenge Cup or the Balmoral Handicap. But the horses in third and fifth are both of interest for Saturday.
ZENNOR STORM was the one who was closest to the principals and is a rare example of a William Haggas horse who looks overpriced for a major handicap. He can be backed at 33/1 right now and has the profile to suggest he can out-run those odds. Following a tame start to the season, his only below-par run from his last four starts came on rain-softened ground at York.
The time before he’d rattled home to take second behind Exclusive Code in a competitive handicap at the Qatar Goodwood Festival. He again shaped well in the Hickory race too, making good headway over a furlong out. He is very well served by the strong pace of a big-field handicap and there are no worries over him handling the hurly-burly. He looks likely to be suited by nine furlongs at the weekend and is on a very fair mark.
HARD ENDEAVOR wasn’t as good back in fifth when they last met but that was his first run for two months and you get the distinct impression Jane Chapple-Hyam has had Saturday’s date ringed on the calendar with him for a little while. Previously the son of New Bay had finished second to last year’s Cambridgeshire runner-up Indalo in the Coral Challenge at Sandown in July.
He was run down late that day having been produced to lead a furlong out and again the nine-furlong trip on Saturday looks sure to suit him. Unless the weather forecast is badly wrong he’s going to get his ground and, granted a clear shot at things, he should be there or thereabouts - 16/1 looks very fair.
RIGHT UP HIS STREET
ERZINDJAN has twice run over this course-and-distance. The first time was in last year’s renewal of the race where he travelled sweetly and burst clear of his nearest pursuers to 'win' by a widening six lengths. Sadly for connections that was the group on the stands’ side, his effort sufficient to finish fourth overall. Clearly the fates weren’t kind that day – but if they are on Saturday then he’ll give another bold show.
Erzindjan won the Suffolk Stakes here on this very set-up on his reappearance this year, picking up nicely to beat Fifth Column and Tycoon. Things didn’t fall his way when a very good sixth in the Hunt Cup next time and he could never get into the race at York last time after being slowly away. He’s only two pounds higher than in last year’s race, a pound above the mark from which he won here in May. Billy Loughnane has been booked and you can understand why.
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