Ben Linfoot on the Investec Derby dilemmas

Is inexperience a killer for Cracksman?

With just two runs under his belt, Cracksman has an unusual profile for a Derby favourite. In most other years, there’s no way he’d be a 4/1 shot.

Any unbeaten horse trained by John Gosden has to be respected heading into the Derby, and he most certainly is, but with just a Newmarket maiden win and a short-head triumph in the Investec Derby Trial at Epsom to his name this son of Frankel has plenty of questions to answer.

The lack of racecourse experience, though, isn’t really a concern. The average number of pre-Derby runs for the winners of the last ten renewals is 3.5 and that figure is helped along by New Approach who ran seven times before Epsom.

Both Ruler Of The World and Workforce ran just twice before they won the Derby and Cracksman is more like the latter, who also had one run as a juvenile before an underwhelming trial. Workforce had excuses for his second in the Dante, while at least Cracksman won his prep race.

The one thing nagging away at me with Cracksman is the presumption by many that he will stay. I’m not so sure and nowhere near sure enough to be backing him at 4/1.

In the Derby Trial he just got there on the line which you could interpret as evidence that he’ll thrive over further, but that was a slowly-run race and he was keen early on. 

I’m far from convinced it’s concrete proof he wants a mile-and-a-half and you could argue he’s hardly bred for it being out of a miler that was out of a seven-furlong horse that was out of a 1000 Guineas winner.  

None of this means he can’t win the Derby, of course. I just can’t see myself backing him at his current odds.

Does Cliffs Of Moher have the stamina for a Derby?

Of course he does. My days of trying to pick holes in the stamina reserves of sons and daughters of Galileo is a thing of the past. In time, perhaps I’ll learn with the progeny of Frankel (but obviously not yet, see above).

I only bring it up because of what Aidan O’Brien said at Breakfast With The Stars. If you missed it, he revealed: “Before Chester we weren’t even sure he’d get a mile and a quarter. He’s out of a fast mare, but we were extra happy with him at Chester as he was relaxed and then went to the line very strong.”

Cliffs Of Moher’s dam is Wave who was a five-furlong winner, but she is also a three-parts sister to the strong-staying Francis Of Assisi. He eventually won good races over a mile-and-a-half and further for Godolphin in Australia after taking the unusual route from Ballydoyle to Charlie Appleby’s via a spell hurdling for John Ferguson.

The bigger question is how much improvement is likely forthcoming in the time between Cliffs Of Moher’s Dee Stakes victory on May 12 and the Derby on June 3? If you listen to O’Brien, he’s expecting a big leap forward as the horse ‘had niggles’ and was a ‘bit behind the others’ in the spring.

So while his Dee Stakes win was rather workmanlike and unspectacular, a bit of ring rustiness was understandable. 

And bearing in mind his win in this Leopardstown maiden last October, where he tore apart stablemate Orderofthegarter (subsequent winner of the Irish 2,000 Guineas Trial and French Guineas fifth) his class is unlikely to be a problem either.

He’s disputing favouritism and rightly so. He probably deserves to be the outright market leader.

Is Eminent the form choice in the Derby?

Settling on the form choice in this Derby is a tough call. 

Eminent (112) is 1lb shy of Best Solution and Permian on official ratings and Cracksman was bumped up a couple of pounds to 109 on collateral form thanks to the subsequent exploits of the Mark Johnston-trained horse. And that’s before we mention the Aidan O’Brien challenge.

Plenty of these have shown very similar levels of ability in their various trials, but Eminent is the only horse who brings Classic form to the table and the Guineas has proven a handy pointer to the Derby in recent years.

Five winners of the Derby had run in the Guineas in the last 11 years with Sea The Stars and Camelot winning both races, while Sir Percy, New Approach and Australia showed that defeat at Newmarket was no bad thing with Epsom aspirations in mind.

Sir Percy and New Approach were both second in the Guineas, however, while Australia was a very close third, and Eminent has to bounce back from a sixth-placed showing on the Rowley Mile.

He had excuses for that, namely the slow gallop, and he wasn’t beaten far which will give hope to connections that he can improve now he tackles a mile and a half (he is bred for the job, being a grandson of an Oaks and Irish Oaks runner-up).

But, the form choice? You couldn’t say so with confidence. He’s run in the best race, but others, at bigger prices, arguably have just as sound a case on the bare form.

Is £85,000 supplementing Permian money well spent?

Let’s just imagine for a second that Sheikh Hamdan bin Mohammed Al Maktoum, son of Sheikh Mohammed, Ruler of Dubai and founder of Godolphin, had to really scrimp and save and beg, steal and borrow to find the £85,000 to supplement Permian for the Derby. Was it all worth it?

To get the money back with interest we’re talking about a top-four finish, and while that was unthinkable last season or even as recently as April 14, he’s just improved and improved with racing this spring to the extent that the supplementary manoeuvre was a no brainer.

As touched upon, he’s joint top-rated with Best Solution on 113, and he’s such an honest, reliable horse that it’s not hard to envisage him running his race and at least recouping some of the supplementary cash.

The problem with Permian is his potential for even further improvement relative to the many unexposed horses he’s up against on Saturday. While Cracksman will be having just his third run and Cliffs Of Moher and Eminent their fourth, Permian will be turning out for the 11th time.

That experience can hold him in good stead in many respects, but he’ll have to improve again from his Dante victory to win the Derby. On his 11th racecourse appearance, that is a massive ask. 

Is the Derrinstown Derby trial form underestimated?

When I watched the Derrinstown Derby Trial at Leopardstown my first instinct was that there was not an Epsom winner among the three Aidan O’Brien-trained colts that fought out the finish.

It just looked like a race lacking star quality and the fact there was a head and a short head between the three horses seemed to underline this opinion. They couldn’t all be stars, could they?

But as the rest of the Derby trials have been run and won it’s hard to argue that they have been vastly more impressive than the Derrinstown race. So, while Yucatan is an absentee, perhaps Douglas Macarthur and Capri deserve a little more attention.

Capri is a stoutly-bred Galileo with loads of stamina on his dam’s side. He could improve on his first go at a mile and a half and he was well-backed on Monday, once the five-day declarations were out, with the bookies cutting him to 12/1 generally from 20/1.

Douglas Macarthur is out of a mare that is a half-sister to New Approach and has always been highly thought of, going by his 2/5 starting price on his debut, anyway. Last of six that day, he was generally disappointing as a juvenile, but his close-up fourth in the Group One Criterium de Saint-Cloud on his final start at two hinted at a brighter future.

This season, he’s finally started to deliver on his early reputation. A second in the Ballysax was followed by that Derrinstown win, a battling success that showed a resolution not in evidence when he was swept aside on several occasions as a juvenile.

Perhaps those memories from last year are why he’s readily available at 20/1. But, taking this season’s form in isolation, he might’ve been underestimated a little, and I would’ve said the same about Capri but for the market move on Monday.

Same question with the Chester Vase in mind?

Maybe it’s because of my doubts about Cracksman, Eminent and Permian, but I’m looking at Venice Beach at 14/1 and I’m beginning to think that might not be a bad price either.

Aidan O’Brien has won seven Chester Vases and only one of those horses has gone on to win the Derby. That was Ruler Of The World, but Chester winners US Army Ranger and Treasure Beach both went close at Epsom, too, and it wouldn’t be a surprise if Venice Beach improved from his run on the Roodee and had a big say on Saturday.

Again, at the time of the Chester Vase my gut feeling was that he’d run well in a Derby without winning it, but the more I look at him the more I like him.

A half-brother to King George and Arc winner Danedream, he’ll have learnt plenty at Chester and his stamina is a strong suit having won over the Derby distance twice already. 

He did it pretty easily at Chester, too. With just four starts on his CV he’s unexposed enough as well. I’m struggling to put a line through him and I’ll suspect he’ll be on the shortlist right up until decision time.

Can Best Solution give the Lingfield Derby Trial a shot in the arm?

It’s now 19 years since High-Rise won the Lingfield trial on the way to Derby glory at Epsom. Of all the recognised trials, this is the one that could do with a winner more than most.

At least this year it looks to have thrown up a viable contender, as Godolphin’s Best Solution is fourth favourite at 10/1 generally and he certainly improved for the step up in trip on the Lingfield turf.

He faces a similar problem to Permian, though, in that the Derby will be his tenth start, but at least he’s thoroughly unexposed at the trip even if his overall profile (beaten on six occasions) hardly screams Classic winner.

It’s difficult to know quite what his Lingfield form is worth, despite the fact he beat them with ease, especially with Ballydoyle’s Sir John Lavery being such a disappointment. 

If you’re looking on the bright side in that regard, you’ll take heart from the form boost provided by Mark Johnston’s Sofia’s Rock at the weekend. Seventh in the Lingfield Derby Trial, he won a Haydock handicap by three lengths on Saturday off a mark of 94.

Can any of the outsiders get involved?

The interesting one is Khalidi at 25/1.

It wouldn’t be a Derby these days without a late John Gosden supplementary entry but this one was a bit of a surprise on Monday, to me anyway, just three days after his win in the Cocked Hat Stakes at Goodwood.

Not only is he a stablemate of favourite Cracksman, but he was well held by Permian at Newmarket in early May and he was expected to go for the King Edward VII Stakes at Royal Ascot for his next assignment.

But his Goodwood win was impressive under a 3lb penalty, as he stayed on really strongly to win by five lengths to record a career-best victory over the furthest he’s ever been (1m3f).

Stamina is unlikely to be an issue on that evidence and, while the Cocked Hat hasn’t produced a Derby winner since Troy in 1979, both Rewilding and Storm The Stars finished third at Epsom after winning the Goodwood trial in recent years.

Talking of outsiders… should Diore Lia be running in the Derby?

A thorny issue and not an easy one to answer.

I’m not comfortable with any horse running in a Group One that could potentially inconvenience the other runners by getting in the way, but we’ve seen that before with pacemakers from the biggest of yards and knowing where to draw the line isn’t easy.

Plucking a number from thin air for an official ratings qualification is a dangerous game as one day you could rule out a rapidly-improving potential winner and I feel the BHA are right to stay out of this one.

But this Diore Lia is not a rapidly-improving potential winner. She’s beaten just four horses home in two outings and previous trainer Jane Chapple-Hyam didn’t want any part of it when the Epsom plan was revealed.

Owner-breeder Richard Aylward says any prize-money will go to Great Ormond Street Children’s Hospital, but there are better ways to raise money for charity and perhaps connections have a responsibility to avoid this sort of rumble by not making crazy entries in the first place.

When the best scenario is that she sits last as soon as the stalls open and stays there, you know it’s not an ideal situation.

What’s the Value Bet in the Derby, then?

I can fence sit for a few more days yet with the ground a key variable in this most intriguing of Derby puzzles.

Which is a good job, as you can probably tell going through each Derby dilemma hasn’t helped me narrow anything down to a punt just yet.

I’m leaning away from Cracksman, Eminent and Permian at the current prices, but we’ll see how the market changes between now and the big day.