Our form expert Ben Linfoot delivers his verdict on Sunday's feature action and he has three bets at Cheltenham, featuring the Unibet Greatwood Hurdle.
The Verdict: Sunday, November 19
1pt Es Perfecto in 1.45 Cheltenham at 9/1 (bet365, 8/1 General)
1pt win Afadil in 3.30 Cheltenham at 20/1 (General)
1pt win Gin Coco in 3.30 Cheltenham at 12/1 (NON RUNNER)
Great-wood chance for Nicholls
Onlymatteratime, first time out for Willie Mullins, owned by Paul ‘The Shunter’ Byrne, dominates the market for the Unibet Greatwood Hurdle at Cheltenham on Sunday.
He ran out at Cork for his last trainer when having a winning a chance, so he’s of obvious interest here for his new team, but the market simply hasn’t missed him and he has to be left alone at 7/2, as he could be a major drifter on the day.
Naturally punters will look elsewhere and they have already moved for Dan Skelton’s L’Eau Du Sud, into 11/2 from 9/1, the lightly-raced five-year-old a danger to all after wind surgery.
These market moves have resulted in the rest of the field holding their prices and there are other angles to pursue, including siding with Paul Nicholls’ AFADIL given his odds of 20/1 have held up well.
Nicholls’ last two winners of this race have been four-year-olds and Afadil has a nice profile coming into this, as he shaped well in the Fred Winter in March when coming home best of the Brits in eighth place behind a posse of Irish-trained juveniles.
After that he ran well in second in a hot Ascot race won by stablemate Blueking D’Oroux and he was impressive up at Ayr in April, winning a handicap hurdle easily off just a 5lb lower mark despite a mistake at the second last.
He should come on for his reappearance at the Showcase Meeting where he was reported to be a little on the tubby side and with the soft ground of no inconvenience to him he can run a big race at 20s.
Harry Fry’s GIN COCO was also fancied, but he's a non runner due to the soft ground.
The Verdict: Back AFADIL in the 3.30 Cheltenham
Perfecto punt for canny King
Earlier on the card ES PERFECTO looks a bet on his chasing debut in the cavani.co.uk Novices’ Limited Handicap Chase over 2m4f.
This isn’t a great race by any means but Alan King’s representative looks underestimated as one of the outsiders of the field at 9/1.
A good novice hurdler who started life in handicaps off 133 after finishing second to Bravemansgame at Newbury, he acquitted himself when fourth of 16 off that mark at the same track on his handicap hurdle debut and he’s dropped significantly in the weights thanks in part to a near two-year absence from the track.
He ran well enough in two starts at Uttoxeter earlier this year to suggest the ability still remains, though, especially given he was too keen to do himself justice on both occasions.
Tackling a fence can help, as he’s bred for chasing and is a point-to-point winner, while King’s overall strike-rate of 19% in this type of race is matched when you drill down to his record of chasing debutants in the sphere.
His overall profile suggests he's a bit fragile, but first time up might well be the time to catch him and confidence is boosted on that score by his Warwick maiden hurdle win off the back of 237 days off.
Off a mark of 124 he might’ve been let in lightly and at 9/1 he’s worth a bet.
The Verdict: Back ES PERFECTO in the 1.45 Cheltenham
Preview posted at 1500 GMT on 18/11/23
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