Ben Linfoot offers his verdict and recommended bets on the key Saturday races in his new tipping column with the best bet coming on the all-weather at Lingfield.
- Ben devised the Value Bet column and was +290pts in profit when handing over the reins to Matt Brocklebank in 2020
- Since then he has provided a guide to the ITV races and was +60pts in profit 2021-22
- This is the new home for Ben's tipping insight for every Saturday and at the major festivals
The Verdict tips: Saturday January 7
1pt win Magic Saint in 1.30 Wincanton at 6/1 (General)
2pts win Obsidian Knight in 2.20 Lingfield at 7/2 (William Hill)
1pt win In The Air in 3.35 Sandown at 7/1 (NON-RUNNER - self cert, blood analysis not normal)
Trainer To Follow – Gary Moore
Everyone knows Gary Moore has plenty of winners at Sandown Park, a racecourse 40 minutes north of his Lower Beeding base in West Sussex.
But I think his horses are at their best at the track when the ground is really testing and, with up to 10mm of rain forecast at Sandown on Saturday morning, conditions could well go that way.
In the last five years he’s 7/36 at 19.44% at Sandown when the track is riding heavy, compared to a 12% strike-rate at the same course overall, and his yard has been well amongst the winners the last few weeks.
With six entries at Sandown on Saturday his team needs close inspection and it's no surprise the market hasn’t missed Bo Zenith in the opening juvenile hurdle, a contest he has won the last two years.
His Authorised Speed is battling for favouritism in the Grade 1 Unibet Tolworth Novices’ Hurdle, too, and he looks highly likely to run really well, while Sopran Thor and High Up In The Air are both on winning marks in the 2m4f handicap chase at 1.15.
The one of Moore’s I want to back, though, is IN THE AIR in the Unibet New And Improved Bet Builder Handicap Hurdle over two miles at 3.35. Moore also has two in this race, the other being Imphal, but In The Air looks the one to be on as he’s of major interest now the ground has turned in his favour.
A winner at Auteuil as a three-year-old on heavy ground, he defied a penalty on his British debut to win easily at Newbury in soft ground, a performance that earnt him a rating of 127 and a place in the Grade 1 Jewson Anniversary 4-y-o Juvenile Hurdle at Aintree.
He was outclassed that day on ground too lively for him and conditions have been against him in two starts this campaign, as well.
The handicapper has dropped him 7lb to 120, however, and he needs backing around 7/1 now the mud is flying again.
The Verdict: Back IN THE AIR at 7/1 (NON-RUNNER)
CORRIGEEN ROCK - Solid or Shaky?
CORRIGEEN ROCK is disputing favouritism at around 11/4 for the two-mile handicap chase at Sandown (1.50) and Lucinda Russell’s horse would be dangerous to oppose.
Watch the replay of his last win at Sandown and the camera angle gives you a great view of his slick jumping down the back straight before he gets to the water jump and Railway Fences.
He won easily despite getting in close to the last and a 9lb rise may not be enough to stop him, with the one question mark being what is likely to be the softest ground he has ever faced.
However, being by Westerner I’d expect him to handle conditions well and Rose Sea Has, third behind him at Sandown after trying to keep up with him in the early stages, has subsequently won at Fontwell.
The Verdict: Rock Solid
The Shortlist – Unibet Veterans’ Handicap Chase
- Prime Venture
- Crosspark
- Indy Five
- Sir Ivan
The final of this popular series looks set to live up to expectations again and in a really competitive affair it’s worth exploring a few avenues.
For a starting point it has to be last year’s winner, Prime Venture, who won in 2022 in heavy ground off a mark of 130 with the cheekpieces reapplied.
Fast forward 12 months and the rain is coming for him, he races off 130 again and the cheekpieces are reapplied. Two spins around Ffos Las over hurdles should have put him spot on for this and it’s no shock to see him heading the market.
Crosspark is an interesting one having been dropped a couple of pounds for his Haydock return on the back of nearly 600 days off. He qualifies having been due to run in the abandoned qualifier at Sandown in November and is clearly well-treated on his best form, so this former Eider Chase winner has to be on the radar given the likelihood this will turn into a severe test of stamina.
They probably won’t go a silly pace in the conditions but there are a number of likely front runners including Wishing And Hoping, Ramses De Teillee, Chrico Vallis, Run To Milan and Indy Five.
The latter is a danger to all when he gets in a rhythm and he ran a cracker at Cheltenham against younger rivals at the Paddy Power meeting, leading on the turn for home and only tiring up the hill from before the last. The form looks good as Eva’s Oskar came out of that race and won at Cheltenham in December.
Dropped to a mark in the 120s, he’s on the shortlist but he wouldn’t want too much pace pressure on the front end and he certainly wouldn’t want the ground turning heavy – he was pulled up last year in bottomless ground that he didn’t like.
Third last year (and the year before) was Sir Ivan who handles testing ground well, as you would expect for a Midnight Legend.
He likes jumping around Sandown and while his finishing effort has cost him the last few years, he has been given a chance by the handicapper this time around off 129.
His previous thirds in the race have come off marks of 135 and 140, while his runs at Aintree and Fontwell before the turn of the year were promising enough to get involved each-way, although the very big prices have been chipped away at throughout Friday.
The Verdict: Consider the above quartet for exotics and placepots
Other Bets: Wincanton & Lingfield
MAGIC SAINT usually needs a run but he’s so well-handicapped he’s worth chancing in the Virgin Bet Handicap Chase over 2m4f at Wincanton.
He hasn’t won over the trip either, but he has run some good races in defeat over this distance and this represents his best opportunity to strike over two and a half miles.
On his one previous visit to Wincanton he bolted up off a similar mark and Saint Des Saints progeny have a terrific record at this track when the ground is riding soft or worse (8 from 31 at 25.81%).
This represents a drop in grade for him and he could easily outclass them off top weight with Freddie Gingell (5 from 14 at 36% for Nicholls) taking off a further 7lb.
Over at Lingfield I’m keen to side with Terry Kent’s OBSIDIAN KNIGHT in the BetUK Over 40,000 Live Streamed Races Handicap over 1m4f at 2.20.
This horse has really clicked into gear the last few months and he’s at his best on Lingfield’s polytrack where he won over 10 furlongs at the end of October.
Remarkably, he’s only 2lb higher in the weights now, and that’s despite running really well in defeat twice at Wolverhampton where two steadily-run races have undone him.
Indeed, last time out he was badly positioned as they quickened off the turn for home, but on sectionals he was the quickest horse in the race in each of the last three furlongs and can be rated unlucky.
Of course, there is the danger that a moderate gallop will compromise his chance again, but Aced It and Sword Beach like to make the running and the return to Lingfield is very much in his favour.
He’s won twice around here and Awtaad progeny were 7/22 at 31.82% on Lingfield’s polytrack in 2022, while the pace was hardly frantic when he won here over 10.
It would be no surprise to see him bounding down the home straight to winning effect and prices around 7/2 look very fair indeed.
The Verdict: Back MAGIC SAINT at 13/2 and OBSIDIAN KNIGHT at 7/2
Published at 1510 GMT on 06/01/23
More from Sporting Life
- Racecards
- Fast results
- Full results and free video replays
- Horse racing news
- Horse racing tips
- Horse racing features
- Download our free iOS and Android app
- Football and other sports tips
- Podcasts and video content
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.
