Our form expert has two selections for the ITV action as Newmarket's Craven meeting comes to an end on Thursday.
The Verdict: Thursday, April 18
1pt win Ingleby Ivy in 1.50 Newmarket at 16/1 (General)
1pt win Commanche Falls in 3.00 Newmarket at 13/2 (bet365, 6/1 General)
Falls fancied in the Abernant
The bet365 Craven Stakes takes centre stage on the final day of the meeting that’s named after the race and in a normal year you might expect some Classic clues with the 2000 Guineas run over the same course and distance.
In the year of City Of Troy, though, the Craven favourite, Native Approach, is 40/1 for the Guineas, while the Craven second favourite, Alcantor, isn’t even in it, so it might not be so informative for the season’s first Classic this time around.
It remains an interesting race, especially with Andre Fabre bringing Alcantor over from France, while City Of Troy’s form is on show thanks to Eben Shaddad and Haatem, while Aidan O’Brien sends his own marker across in the shape of Cambridge.
Charlie Appleby’s Native Approach is the fascinating one, fast-tracked from an impressive maiden success on Kempton’s all-weather in February, but with unknown winter improvement looming over the field it looks a race to watch and learn from.
We can get a better handle on some grizzled older sprinters in the Group 3 Connaught Access Flooring Abernant Stakes with 13 runners set to go to post, the biggest field in the race since 2011.
The four-year-olds often find their way to the top of the market in this type of race, but the older sprinters have held their own in this contest over the years and I want to take on the younger horses at the top of the market, Shouldvebeenaring and Marshman.
Shouldvebeenaring didn’t run like he wanted dropping back to six furlongs when outpaced over seven at Wolverhampton last time, while Marshman looks like he wants dropping back to five and the first-time hood will have to have a serious calming effect.
Both are nice prospects for the year, but I much prefer the claims of the seven-year-old COMMANCHE FALLS and I’d have him as clear favourite for Michael Dods.
He looks the most likely of these to run to the required level first time up, the seven-year-old a beacon of consistency and arguably still underestimated from an official rating of 112, his form excellent on his seasonal reappearance historically (1-1-1-2-7).
That seventh was last year in heavy ground that was against him at Doncaster, but he bounced out of that to run a fine second to Garrus in this race where a slow pace counted against him.
There should be at least an even gallop in this line-up and that will suit a horse that has so much big-field six-furlong form to his name, the good ground absolutely ideal for him.
His half-brother Dakota Gold held his form well as an older horse, which helps quell any fears of regression now he’s getting a bit older, and it would be no surprise if this frequent winner sticks his neck out to seal a 13th career success with another strong finish.
The Verdict: Back COMMANCHE FALLS in the 3.00 Newmarket
Ivy to climb up the ranks in opener
The Cheltenham action isn’t up to much on Thursday which leaves only the opening sprint at Newmarket to have a go at, a tantalising three-year-old only heat full of potential improvers.
Adrian Nicholls has had a good week at Newmarket with his older sprinters, Tees Spirit winning on Tuesday and Abate running well in sixth on Wednesday, and there are reasons to have faith in his 3yo sprinters at this time of year.
Crime Fiction, Tees Spirit himself, Mo Celita (twice), Hurt You Never and Thornaby Pearl are all examples of 3yo sprinters to win in the early months of the turf season from the yard and INGLEBY IVY could add to the good record here.
The daughter of Calyx looks fairly treated off a mark of 80 judging by her win at Ripon last September, where she handled the undulations really well to run out a very easy winner.
It was no wonder she tried Listed company after that at York, where the soft ground didn’t seem to suit, and she wasn’t disgraced for all that she fell away late on after setting the pace up front under Hollie Doyle.
Nicholls was very positive about the filly in his post-race comments after Ripon, saying he thinks she’s ‘well above average’, so it’s notable he’s aimed her at a high quality 3yo-only handicap first time up.
The Verdict: Back INGLEBY IVY in 1.50 Newmarket
Preview posted at 1505 BST on 17/04/24
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