Ben Linfoot free horse racing tips for Newcastle ITV Racing Good Friday March 29
Four bets for our form expert on Newcastle's Good Friday card including in the feature Bet UK All-Weather Easter Classic.
The Verdict: Friday, March 29
1pt win Prydwen in 1.53 Newcastle at 12/1 (General)
1pt win Fivethousandtoone in 3.35 Newcastle at 9/1 (General)
1pt e.w. Star Harbour in 4.10 Newcastle at 20/1 (bet365, Hills, Coral, Ladbrokes, 1/5 1,2,3,4)
1pt win Final Voyage in 4.40 Newcastle at 14/1 (BetVictor, Coral, Ladbrokes)
Harbour ambition in the Easter Classic
A new look for All Weather Championships day at Newcastle on Good Friday with the conditions races turned into handicaps and it appears to have paid immediate dividends with some healthy fields declared on a good punting card.
The Bet UK All-Weather Easter Classic remains the feature race and it looks really competitive as a handicap with some upwardly mobile horses like Oh So Grand, Penzance and Elegant Man heading the betting.
Any of those could win, but they have been winning typical all-weather races in so much that they have generally pounced off slow gallops, doing their rivals for class and pace at the business end.
This 15-runner field with proven pacesetters like To Catch A Thief, Freescape and Claymore in attendance promises to be different, and while any of those market leaders might like that scenario, too, I’d rather side with a horse at a bigger price that looks sure to be suited by a test at the 10-furlong trip.
With that in mind I’m drawn to the claims of Ado McGuinness’ STAR HARBOUR who looks worth siding with each-way at 20/1.
This horse is a proven winner over 1m4f and he’s well suited to a strongly-run 10 furlongs, something he didn’t get when beaten just less than six lengths by the aforementioned Elegant Man at Dundalk off a three-month break at the end of January.
He gets an 11lb pull at the weights with that horse here and he ran a cracker back at Dundalk last time, just being run out of the win late on over 1m4f after wandering around when in front.
It was another run that suggested a good pace at 10 furlongs would be his ideal scenario, something that his performances at Chepstow (when winning) and Windsor (when behind Spirit Dancer) last summer in the Racing League would back up.
Adam Caffrey claims 3lb off him and he’s been banging in the winners at Dundalk for McGuinness after riding a treble for him there last week, while he knows this horse having finished second on him last time out.
The track is an unknown, but Sea The Stars progeny have an excellent strike-rate on the Newcastle Tapeta (22%) and, all in all, this Irish raider could be a bigger danger to his rivals than his odds suggest.
The Verdict: Back STAR HARBOUR in the 4.10 Newcastle
Final destination for Murtagh
There is another Irish raider on the card worthy of attention and that’s Johnny Murtagh’s FINAL VOYAGE (14/1) in the BetMGM All Weather Championships Mile Handicap at 4.40.
Dear My Friend dominates this race and he could well outclass them, but a BHA mark of 113 makes life tough for him back in handicap company and the percentage call is to take him on.
Symbol Of Light could well reverse New Year’s Day form with him off 15lb better terms, but with the 13/2 all gone he’s just gone on the wrong side of value and at the prices Final Voyage is preferred.
He is another one who hasn’t run at Newcastle, but he loves the Tapeta surface at Wolverhampton and he does have at least some straight track form after a good run in a big field at Cork, so there are reasons to think it will suit.
The key thing is a strongly-run mile, as that is what suits him best, as he showed last time at Wolverhampton when he came widest of all only for Kingdom Come to get a dream split on the inside.
Final Voyage would’ve had him in another 50 yards, but, either way, there looks very little between the pair yet Murtagh’s horse is twice the price of Kingdom Come here.
The pace looks likely to be suitably strong in this and I love the booking of David Probert, a jockey with a fine 22% strike-rate on the Newcastle Tapeta.
The Verdict: Back FINAL VOYAGE in the 4.40 Newcastle
Murphy to strike on Fivethousandtoone
The BetUK All-Weather Sprint Handicap looks wide open but I’m of the opinion the visor has transformed FIVETHOUSANDTOONE (9/1) in a much more positive way than the market would have you believe.
An extremely classy horse on his day, Andrew Balding’s son of Frankel has a disappointing strike-rate for one of his ability, but headgear has made him into a much more consistent horse and the visor has really begun to squeeze the best out of him.
He first wore the visor on New Year’s Day at this track and his effort behind Albasheer can be marked up, as the winner was well positioned off a slow pace and Fivethousandtoone did well to get as close as he did considering the way things panned out.
A 6lb pull with that rival can help him reverse the form and he was even better last time when winning at Kempton, again in the visor, when he defied trouble in the run to defeat three of his Friday rivals cosily.
The handicapper put him up 3lb for that, which still gives him a chance off 98, and the presence of Oisin Murphy, who took this card by storm 12 months ago thanks to a treble, looks another positive for this tricky but talented horse.
The Verdict: Back FIVETHOUSANDTOONE in the 3.35 Newcastle
Prydwen the Marathon man
Finally, I can’t really understand why PRYDWEN is four times the price of favourite Spartan Army in the BetUK All-Weather Championships Marathon Handicap.
The pair battled it out at Lingfield last time when Prydwen almost reeled in Spartan Army over a trip slightly short of two miles and he’s 1lb better off here for a neck defeat.
He’s got a good record at Wolverhampton, so he likes a Tapeta surface, and his sole run at Newcastle came in the November Handicap over an inadequate trip.
Still getting better judging by that Lingfield second, he’s still unexposed at the trip having run just three times over two miles and 12/1 seems to underestimate him a little, even in a competitive race.
The Verdict: Back PRYDWEN in the 1.53 Newcastle
Preview posted at 1530 GMT on 28/03/24
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