Ben Linfoot free horse racing tips for ITV racing at Newbury's Super Saturday February 10
Our form expert takes an in-depth look at the Betfair Hurdle as Newbury stages the sole National Hunt card in the UK on Saturday afternoon.
The Verdict: Saturday, February 10
1pt e.w. Go Dante in 3.15 Newbury at 22/1 (William Hill 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
No bets on Newbury undercard
The wet weather has decimated Saturday’s jumps racing with Warwick and Uttoxeter falling by the wayside, but at least Newbury’s Super Saturday card looks like surviving with conditions turning heavy after around 50mm of rain at the track since Tuesday.
The small-field graded races provide plenty of interest with box-office Shishkin worth tuning in for in the Betfair Denman Chase at 2.05, Nicky Henderson's horse aiming for a drama-free afternoon after refusing at Ascot and then stumbling with the King George at his mercy on his last two starts.
Hopefully he can cement his Cheltenham Gold Cup claims with a confidence-boosting win, his odds of 8/13 reflective of his chance against this opposition. If he does find a way to lose again it should be the consistent Protektorat who takes advantage, but this isn’t a race to be betting in.
The Betfair Exchange Game Spirit Chase is also trappy. It will be interesting to see how likely front-runner Editeur Du Gite responds to the addition of cheekpieces, but I worry about him getting home in the ground and he could tee things up nicely for Edwardstone.
Alan King’s horse is on a retrieval mission himself after six defeats since his last win, but he won’t mind the ground or the track and he should enjoy being back at two miles after his failed experiment over 2m4f in the Silviniaco Conti Chase where he was too keen to race efficiently.
Still, I wouldn’t be wading in at 13/8 and while Kyntara is fancied in the Betfair Serial Winners Fund Handicap Hurdle at 1.30, a couple of high-profile non-runners have seen his price contract at the top of the market.
Moore profits in Betfair Hurdle?
It's all about the Betfair Hurdle, then, and while the race lacks quality at the top end compared to renewals from the past, with the top weight Luccia only rated 140, at least we had a maximum field of 24 at the declaration stage, making it one of the best handicap hurdles of the season.
That’s encouraging after a few years of 14 and 16 runners and with seven places available at Sky Bet and William Hill, it’s a race to have a go at from an each-way stance.
Ocastle Des Mottes is the intriguing horse on debut for Willie Mullins, bringing with him some smart heavy ground form from France and an English mark of 133, compared to an Irish rating of 139.
Perhaps the BHA assessor will be left with egg on their face, but with so many unknowns against him, notably his match practice after nearly eight months off the track, he has to be taken on at the prices after he was backed into favouritism early in the week.
Mullins has two other strings to his bow after Onlyamattertime sneaked in from reserve status at the 11th hour, both he and stablemate Avaniy running in the colours of Paul Byrne, which immediately makes them respected, for all that they simply don’t look good enough for a race of this nature on what we have seen from them in Britain this season.
While Mullins has yet to win a Betfair Hurdle, Gary Moore is going for his fourth win in the race and I was all set to side with Spirit D’Aunou until his price collapsed on Friday.
He’s progressing at a rate of knots and bounced back from defeat at Cheltenham on his reappearance, where he was too keen, to win easily at Sandown in heavy ground last time out. That was his second win on heavy so he’ll love the conditions and his Sandown win was boosted by the third, Punta Del Este, who came out and won by 23 lengths in Haydock heavy next time out.
Held back for this race since then, he should travel away better than most and could well defy a 10lb higher mark, but after an understandable plunge from 14s to 9s on Friday morning, largely due to the changing conditions, I’ll have to leave him alone.
Dante underestimated for red-hot Murphy
The one I am backing each-way is Olly Murphy’s GO DANTE, available at 25/1 with a few firms but 22/1 at William Hill who go seven places.
Murphy is in flying form at present, winning 11 races from 29 runners at 38% in the last fortnight, and Go Dante looks underestimated at the prices for an in-form horse who looks ready for this sort of test.
Lightly-raced after just 10 career starts, including nine over hurdles, he looks to be running into the form of his life on the back of pre-season wind surgery as evidenced by his two runs at Cheltenham this campaign.
He travelled away nicely on ground Timeform reported as heavy in the Greatwood Hurdle on his reappearance, but he was too fresh and keen on his first run for 219 days so it was no wonder he faded into sixth.
Next time out he improved on the run to win from Doddiethegreat at the same track and while he was well-positioned towards the lead off a steady pace he did tremendously well to knuckle down and seal victory after fluffing the last, pulling away from his rivals up the hill.
The form looks good with the dead-heating thirds Panjari and Donnacha both winning since, while the handicapper only put him up 4lb, a fair enough rise for a quality Cheltenham race that is working out well.
He’s all stamina at two miles, as you might expect for a horse who ran in the 2m4f Challow Novices’ Hurdle at this track in his youth, so I suspect that a strong gallop at the trip is exactly what he wants and he should get that on Saturday with a handful of front-runners in the field.
As for the ground, he’s posted a couple of wins on soft, including last time out, and there’s a good body of evidence that suggests Kayf Tara progeny are at their happiest on heavy, so he could thrive in the conditions.
The returning Sean Bowen knows him well, on board for his last two victories, and he has a horse who can lay up just off the leaders before pouncing in the straight, potentially reigniting his title charge with what would arguably be the biggest win of his association with Murphy.
The Verdict: Back GO DANTE each-way in the Betfair Hurdle
Preview posted at 1430 GMT on 09/02/24
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