Our form expert has three selections for Chepstow and Kempton on Friday including in the Coral Welsh Grand National.
The Verdict: Friday December 27
1pt win The Newest One in 2.50 Chepstow at 16/1 (bet365, Paddy Power)
1pt win Val Dancer in 2.50 Chepstow at 18/1 (bet365, 16/1 General)
1pt win Slipway in 3.08 Kempton at 12/1 (bet365, Paddy Power)
Taking two in the Welsh National
For all that Sir Gino v Ballyburn brings a tantalising clash to the table in the Ladbrokes Wayward Lad Novices’ Chase at Kempton on Friday the big betting race comes at Chepstow with 16 lining up for the Coral Welsh Grand National.
This might not be the typical slog that we have got used to in this race with the ground soft, good to soft in places at the time of writing and the weather looks set fair, too, so conditions could be a big factor.
I’m not sure the heavy ground mud-lovers are going to be seen to best effect, which puts me off the likes of Galia Des Liteaux, Fontaine Collonges and Where It All Began.
In the last two renewals that contained a bit of ‘good’ in Timeform’s going description, Notre Pere and Secret Reprieve’s wins in 2008 and 2020 (run in January 2021), respectively, it paid to race prominently and it’s with that in mind I’m taking these two against the field.
First up, VAL DANCER for Mel Rowley, a likeable chaser who has racked up four wins from seven over fences, his career best coming at Carlisle last time when he kept pulling out more from the front end.
Carlisle is a stiff track and 3m2f around there takes some getting, so Val Dancer did really well over the furthest he has ever gone while hinting he could be open to even more improvement now tackling a marathon trip.
I liked his attitude that day as he faced strong challenges from the third last, but he wasn’t for passing and he jumped really well under pressure, while he looked like going away from them again at the line.
A 5lb rise for that was perfectly fair and with his Carlisle win coming on good to soft he might just have ideal conditions for a Welsh National tilt.
Certainly, I can’t see too much pace pressure in against him and he could give Charlie Hammond a great spin on the front end.
The other one in the staking plan is THE NEWEST ONE for the in-form Nigel Twiston-Davies team who won their first Grade 1 since Bristol De Mai with Potters Charm on Boxing Day.
Twiston-Davies is going for his first Welsh National since Bindaree here, but The Newest One is another prominent racer who could be nicely positioned towards the front.
He ran good races on both visits to Chepstow over hurdles, his second visit a 19-length win in heavy ground over three miles, while he looks an improved horse back over fences this campaign.
All three of his runs have come on decent ground at Cheltenham, a win and a fourth coming in amateur jockeys’ races over 3m1f before he ran a good race from 4lb out of the weights there last time out.
On several occasions throughout his career he has hinted that he’ll be worth trying over a proper staying trip, including last time when he stayed on for fifth after being outpaced half a mile from home.
He gets that here and if Sam Twiston-Davies can get him into a nice rhythm in a prominent position he could well land his father a third win in this famous festive contest.
The Verdict: Back THE NEWEST ONE & VAL DANCER in the 2.50 Kempton
Pauling and Jones to give them the Slip
Over at Kempton SLIPWAY looks worth chancing in the Ladbrokes Get Rewarded With Ladbucks Handicap Chase over three miles.
Frero Banbou doesn’t look one to trust up 7lb and this is much tougher than Ludlow for Anthony Honeyball’s Dreaming Blue, so the two last time out winners at the head of the betting look worth taking on and behind them it’s wide open.
Slipway was a convincing course and distance winner off just a 2lb lower mark in March and his defeat over 3m5f at Ascot last time came just eight days after an encouraging reappearance in Cheltenham’s Cross Country race at the November meeting.
It did at least help his mark and after five weeks off he should be sufficiently freshened up for a real crack at this for Ben Pauling and Ben Jones, who had a Kempton double on Boxing Day.
The Verdict: Back SLIPWAY in the 3.08 Kempton
Preview posted at 1500 GMT on 26/12/24
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