Ben Linfoot free horse racing tips for Cheltenham Festival 2024 day one

The Verdict: Tuesday, March 12

1pt win JPR One in 2.10 Cheltenham at 9/1 (bet365, Hills, 8/1 General)

1pt win Trelawne in 2.50 Cheltenham at 8/1 (General)

1pt win Weveallbeencaught in 2.50 Cheltenham at 11/1 (General, 12/1 in places)

1pt e.w. Love Envoi in 4.10 Cheltenham at 14/1 (1/5 1,2,3 General)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

Mullins to start with a bang

It could be an incredible start to the 2024 Cheltenham Festival for Willie Mullins who has six of the seven favourites on day one including State Man at around 1/3 in the feature Unibet Champion Hurdle.

For all that the absence of Constitution Hill is a blow to not only this race but the meeting as a whole, State Man would’ve been an odds-on favourite in most Champion Hurdles over the last decade such is his own talent and consistency.

His only defeat in his last 11 races came in this race last year at the hands of Constitution Hill, but from his 10 wins eight came at the highest level and one of the others was in the County Hurdle at this meeting.

He is expected to win the Champion Hurdle without drama and it’s highly likely he won’t be the only winner for Mullins on the opening day.

The problem is identifying the right Mullins bets at the right prices and the closest I came to siding with one from Closutton was Tullyhill in the curtain-raising Sky Bet Supreme Novices’ Hurdle.

He looks the most likely winner to me after really impressing last time at Punchestown, evidence that he has warmed to his task as a novice hurdler following an inauspicious start over timber at the same track back in November.

Beaten at 1/8 that day, his hurdling has sharpened up considerably and he looks just the type to power home from the front end in the style of so many Mullins' representatives from previous renewals.

The market has cottoned onto his chance and now he’s outright favourite I’ll leave him alone, but he is expected to get the WPM bandwagon rolling. It could be a tough one to stop.

Tizzard star to sparkle in Arkle

Mullins also dominates the My Pension Expert Arkle Challenge Trophy Novices’ Chase, training three of the top four in the betting, but his trio all have question marks hanging over them for different reasons.

Gaelic Warrior (0/2 at the Festival) jumps to his right and has to bounce back from a disappointing effort at the Dublin Racing Festival over a trip he hasn’t tackled over fences, while DRF winner Il Etait Temps has to prove he can perform at his best away from Leopardstown.

Hunters Yarn is interesting but lacks experience and he’s got a mistake in him, so there’s a glimmer of light for the rest in this race and I like the look of Joe Tizzard’s JPR ONE.

I don’t think he’s got anywhere near as much to find with the Irish as the market believes and crucially he looked to love Cheltenham when gliding around here in November, only to stumble and unseat Brendan Powell after the last.

Pitched into Grade 1 company after that, the heavy ground seemed to hinder him at Sandown but he bounced back to his very best last time out in the Lightning Novices’ Chase at Lingfield.

He dominated that Grade 2 after travelling smoothly and jumping with authority, the half-length winning margin over Matata no reflection of his superiority given he idled after the last.

In this field he won’t have to do the donkey work with the likes of Found A Fifty, Matata and Gaelic Warrior more likely to go forward and Powell can get a nice tow into proceedings sitting just off the pace.

He’ll have to improve a little to win what looks an average Arkle, but he can do, and with course experience and that good Grade 2 victory under his belt he could gain a memorable first Festival win for his trainer.

The Verdict: Back JPR ONE in the 2.10 Cheltenham

Take two in bid to crack the Ultima

The Irish don’t have a strong record in the Ultima but they do have a strong hand this year and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see The Goffer land this for Gordon Elliott off a 2lb lower mark than 12 months ago when he was fourth.

He had Corach Rambler and Fastorslow in front of him after leading three from home and comes here fresh after being kept off the track since October (although he was a rather eyecatching winner of a charity race at Punchestown last month).

He’s disputing favouritism with Meetingofthewaters though, looking short enough, and Mullins’ horse somewhat showed his hand when bolting up in the Paddy Power Handicap Chase at Leopardstown over Christmas, so I want to have a go at the market leaders.

Novices have a good record in this race as you might expect, winning five of the last 10 renewals, and there are a couple I want to back here including Kim Bailey’s TRELAWNE.

He took big strides forward when stepped up in trip in handicap company over hurdles, winning easily over three miles on Midlands National day at Uttoxeter, but he’s improved significantly again for seeing a fence and has been running well against high-class opposition over the intermediate trip.

His form behind Ginny’s Destiny and Grey Dawning at this track is superb in the context of this race, especially as he was still in there pitching at the last, while he ran a great race at Wetherby after that despite hanging to his right on the turn away from the stands.

Last time he ran another good race in a hot three-runner heat at Exeter behind Crebilly and Tahmuras, and while he’s got his quirks, as Wetherby showed, he’s got loads of potential off this mark now he tackles a trip.

Harry Cobden looks a great jockey booking as he’s just the sort of jockey to rise to the challenge on this type of horse.

I also want Nigel Twiston-Davies’ WEVEALLBEENCAUGHT onside after he crept in at the foot of the weights.

He had a fibrillating heart after finishing last when sent off favourite for a novice handicap chase at this track in December and hasn’t been seen since, but he’s got good form fresh and looks a danger to all off a rating of 134.

The seven-year-old looked set for a big season when third to Flooring Porter and stablemate Broadway Boy at this track in October, a chasing debut where he took to the fences well, and if he jumps like that in this race it’s easy to see him travelling into the contest smoothly.

A first-time tongue-tie could also help; Twiston-Davies is 6 from 22 at 27% with the t1 in handicap chases, and with good Cheltenham form over hurdles in his locker as well, Weveallbeencaught could finally fulfil his potential.

The Verdict: Back TRELAWNE and WEVEALLBEENCAUGHT in the 2.50 Cheltenham

All you need is Love in the Mares’

Mullins has another hotpot in Lossiemouth in the Close Brothers Mares’ Hurdle and she does look the most talented mare in the race as her official rating of 155 suggests.

The problem is that has been achieved over trips around two miles and there has to be a worry this strong traveller might be too keen up in distance over the 2m4f.

If she settles I think she’ll win, but with that nagging doubt hanging over her I’m happy to take her on each-way and last year’s runner-up LOVE ENVOI appeals at 14/1.

She was a rapid improver last year and found only Honeysuckle too good in this race, almost making all and only giving way to Henry De Bromhead’s star mare halfway up the run-in.

After that she bombed out at Punchestown, but she has run well over an inadequate two miles twice this season and we’re getting an inflated price about her because she has nine-and-a-half lengths to make up on Lossiemouth on their Unibet Hurdle form.

She was simply outpaced that day, but this 2m4f trip plays much more to her strengths and if she runs to the level she did last year she’ll be tough to kick out of the three.

Harry Fry has applied cheekpieces in a bid to squeeze out a bit more from her and he’s a respectable five from 26 at 19.23% with the first-time sheepskin, while the soft ground is absolutely perfect for her – 1112 her record on such conditions.

If Lossiemouth doesn’t deliver, Love Envoi, already a Festival winner after her victory in the 2022 Dawn Run, could well be the one to pick up the pieces.

The Verdict: Back LOVE ENVOI in the 4.10 Cheltenham

Preview posted at 1400 GMT on 11/03/24

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