David Massey has two bets for the Goodwood on Wednesday with William Haggas fancied to land the opener.
1pt win Kolisi in 1.50 Goodwood at 6/1 (General)
1pt e.w. Century Dream in 3.35 Goodwood at 28/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3) - min 25/1
We’re both especially sweet on the chances of William Haggas’ KOLISI in the Unibet ‘15 To Go’ Handicap, and he looks very well treated on an opening mark of 87 now making his handicap debut. He showed soft ground wasn’t any problem when second to Ranchero over an inadequate mile at Nottingham in May but improved on that when winning with plenty in hand at Salisbury last time. Second home there was Godolphin’s giant Marching Army, who made all to win by a wide margin at Leicester on his next start and is now rated 87 himself. Kolisi is improving with each start and the son of Harzand is bred to need at least 1½m, so the step up in trip looks sure to draw out further progress.
Pied Piper got a mention at a big price from us when he took part in the Queens Vase at Royal Ascot, and although he was well held at the finish, ran a little better than his finishing position suggested. He tried to make all at Newmarket last time, but was collared inside the final furlong and faded to third. Front-running tactics here might not be the worst way to go, and given he’s proven on heavy ground, having won on it at Newmarket last autumn, he’s a bigger priced alternative that’s worth considering.
Let us take you back to 1985, a time of deely-boppers, the SDP and the first mobile phone calls. (“It’ll never catch on”, they said). The Glorious Goodwood of that year saw rain, plenty of it as well, and with it John Bridger took the Molecomb with the 100-1 chance Hotbee.
Fast forward to 2021 and we face similar conditions after all the rain that has fallen earlier in the week, and John Bridger is looking to repeat that surprise success with the speedy Arboy Will, who was of some interest even before the rain came, as he appeared well drawn to lead these out from stall 2. The fact that he’s proven on heavy ground, having won on it at Lingfield last time, only helps his cause and although on the figures he’s plenty to find, Goodwood this week is going to throw up surprises and Arboy Will might well be one of them.
Sticking point with Arboy Will could be the draw having just watched the high numbers dominate the sprint handicap on Tuesday. It didn’t help that the speedy El Astronaute made a beeline for the rail in that race, but the worry is that the usual bias towards those drawn low in sprints may be turned on its head by conditions.
There may be more likely winners than CENTURY DREAM for this renewal of the Sussex Stakes as well, but the big prices that were around this morning soon got mopped up after the rain fell, as he really needs cut to show his best.
It makes little sense that Tilsit, unproven on this ground, can be a bigger price than Century Dream given that they are pretty much the same horse on their Summer Mile form last time, regardless of the prices of anything else, and we’d have him around a 12-1 chance here.
Poetic Flare is rightly favourite after a string of superb efforts in Group 1s this season, and this ultra-tough colt, proven on soft/heavy ground, will take some beating if his racing hasn’t caught up with him. The two filles, Alcohol Free and Snow Lantern, should handle the ground without too much bother but when all is said and done, Century Dream, 1-1 on this track, has form that, on this ground, is their equal and we tried to snaffle the 33/1 and 40/1 being offered on Tuesday only for the carpet to be pulled from under us.
Normally, you’d baulk at anything drawn in double figures over 7f at Goodwood but on soft/heavy ground, they come right into contention - particularly if they are front-runners - and with that, it’s Epic Endeavour that catches the eye here.
Progressive last year, winning twice on easy ground, he’s not run badly this season but has just been a little too keen in his races and hasn’t quite been getting home over a mile. With the drop back to 7f, along with the addition of cheekpieces, I’d be very hopeful that he can get back in the groove, and as the sole pace angle out wide, he could get the run of the race. The other potential front runners in the race are both drawn low, and we can see him leading these up the middle or towards the near side in the home straight, which is often the place to be.
With the possibility of non-runners overnight, it makes sense to wait until morning before committing to a bet.
Century Dream added as a bet at 1000 BST on 27/07/21 - rest of preview 1910 BST on 27/07/2021
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