Donn McClean looks at Aidan O'Brien's leading hopes this year's QIPCO 2000 and 1000 Guineas, and how their profiles compare to his previous winners.
The 2000 Guineas matters at Ballydoyle. In just over two decades, from King Of Kings in 1998 to the Churchill-Saxon Warrior-Magna Grecia hat-trick of the last three years, Aidan O’Brien has won the first colts’ Classic 10 times, more times than any other trainer in a race that is over 200 years old.
Unsurprisingly, there are common themes that run through the Ballydoyle 2000 Guineas winners. Aidan O’Brien is a creature of habit, of routine. Minimise the variables. Significantly, none of his 2000 Guineas winners raced as a three-year-old before they won the Guineas. All 10 were making their seasonal debut at Newmarket.
There are commonalities in breeding too. The last four Ballydoyle 2000 Guineas winners were either by Galileo or out of a Galileo mare. The two who were by Galileo, Gleneagles and Churchill, were out of a mare by Storm Cat, grandson of Northern Dancer and sire of Giant’s Causeway, who sired the 2005 Ballydoyle Guineas winner Footstepsinthesand.
Camelot is by Montjeu, who was, like Galileo, by Sadler’s Wells, son of Northern Dancer, sire of 1998 winner King Of Kings and damsire of Henrythenavigator. The 2008 Ballydoyle Guineas winner Henrythenavigator was by Kingmambo, damsire of Camelot, while 2002 winner Rock Of Gibraltar and 2006 winner George Washington were both by Danehill, grandson of Northern Dancer, Sadler’s Wells’ sire and Storm Cat’s grandsire.
The paths taken by the Ballydoyle 2000 Guineas winners through their juvenile years have been varied, but there have been common threads. The last two Aidan O’Brien-trained Guineas winners, Saxon Warrior and Magna Grecia, both won the Vertem Futurity Trophy at two, as did 2002 winner Camelot, while King Of Kings, George Washington, Gleneagles and Churchill all won the National Stakes, with Rock Of Gibraltar and Churchill both winning the Dewhurst.
It looks like last year’s Dewhurst runner-up Arizona is going to spearhead the Ballydoyle 2000 Guineas challenge this year. Arizona is by No Nay Never, who is by Scat Daddy, a great grandson of Storm Cat, and he was impressive in winning his maiden at The Curragh on Irish Guineas weekend last year. He followed that up by going to Royal Ascot and winning the Coventry Stakes.
The Coventry Stakes is not an automatic perennial pointer to the following season’s Guineas, but 2013 Guineas winner Dawn Approach won the race in 2012, and Aidan O’Brien sent out his 2008 Guineas winner Henrythenavigator to win the Coventry Stakes in 2007. Also, he sent out his 2017 Guineas winner Churchill to win the Chesham Stakes at Royal Ascot in 2016.
Arizona didn’t win after Royal Ascot last year, and he was well beaten by Pinatubo in the National Stakes at The Curragh on Irish Champions Weekend in September, but he got much closer to the Godolphin colt in the Dewhurst Stakes at Newmarket in October. He was happy bowling along in front that day, and he found plenty for pressure when he was challenged at the two-furlong marker, battling on bravely and only giving best deep inside the final furlong, with the front pair finishing nicely clear of their rivals. It was the hardest that Pinatubo had to work all year.
No Nay Never is obviously a speed influence, a Norfolk Stakes winner, a Prix Morny winner, a Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint runner-up, but Arizona’s dam got a mile, while his grandam, Bright Generation, finished second in a Pretty Polly Stakes and won an Italian Oaks for Paul Cole and Fahd Salman. Also, Arizona’s year-older full-sister, Nay Lady Nay, won a Grade 2 race over a mile and half a furlong at Churchill Downs last November.
As importantly, Aidan O’Brien said on Thursday that he always thought that Arizona would get a mile okay. The No Nay Never colt is a scopey horse who left the impression last year that he would improve from two to three, and he handled the last seven furlongs of the Rowley Mile course well in the Dewhurst.
Wichita could join Arizona on this year’s Ballydoyle 2000 Guineas team. Like his stable companion, he is also by No Nay Never, out of the Dashing Blade mare Lumiere Noire who won over seven furlongs, and he is a half-brother to a 10-furlong winner in Magistrat.
Wichita was well beaten into third place behind Pinatubo and Arizona in the Dewhurst Stakes last year, but he was probably disadvantaged by the soft ground that day, and he is better judged on his annihilation of the opposition in the Group 3 Tattersalls Somerville Stakes on his previous run, over the Dewhurst course and distance.
While it looks like Arizona is the Ballydoyle 2000 Guineas number one, if Wichita does make the trip, it may be that he will be a little under-rated.
O’Brien hasn’t been as prolific in the 1000 Guineas as he has been in the colts’ race. Even so, five wins in the fillies’ race, three of them in the last four years, means that you have to look closely.
Interestingly, of those five winners, three of them, Homecoming Queen, Winter and Hermosa, left better fancied stable companions in their wake on the day.
Like Minding, Winter and Hermosa, Love is by Galileo and, like Hermosa, she is out of a Pivotal mare. She won the Group 3 Silver Flash Stakes at Leopardstown last July and then, after getting beaten in the Debutante Stakes, she stepped forward again to land the Moyglare Stud Stakes, a race that Minding won in 2015 and a race in which Hermosa finished third in 2018.
Love has almost two lengths to find with Quadrilateral on their running in the Fillies’ Mile over the Guineas course and distance in October, but she should have improved through the winter, and better ground could see her to better effect.
Peaceful and So Wonderful are other Ballydoyle possibles for the 1000 Guineas. Peaceful, by Galileo and a full-sister to Easter, who won the Listed Hurry Harriet Stakes over nine and a half furlongs, ran just three times as a two-year-old. She won a Thurles maiden over a mile on her second attempt before stepping up on that when staying on well to run well-bred debutante Born With Pride to a neck in a listed race at Newmarket in early November.
So Wonderful is still a maiden, but she progressed with racing throughout last season, putting up a career-best on her final run when she got to within a length and a half of Love in that Moyglare Stud Stakes, when she didn’t have the clearest of runs. She would be an outsider, but she could improve again, and recent history tells you that you have to look twice at the Ballydoyle outsiders in the 1000 Guineas.
Responsible gambling
We are committed in our support of responsible gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
Sky Bet's responsible gambling tools are detailed here and if you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline on 0808 8020 133, or visit begambleaware.org.
Further support and information can be found at GamCare and gamblingtherapy.org
