Donn McClean: Investec Oaks preview and tips
Donn McClean previews today's Investec Oaks and talks himself into a bet on one of Aidan O'Brien's quintet in the fillies' Classic on Epsom Downs.
Donn McClean's best bet:
Nine runners in the Investec Oaks again. There were nine runners last year when Enable announced her arrival, and there were nine runners in 2016 when Minding beat Architecture and the pair of them finished clear.
Enable went on to win four more Group 1 races last year, while Minding went on to win three in 2016. That seems to be a common recent theme too. Another Enable or Minding today would do very nicely.
The last two Oaks winners charted different paths after their Epsom wins. Enable remained over a mile and a half, her blend of speed and stamina taking her to victory in the Irish Oaks, the King George, the Yorkshire Oaks and the Arc. Minding never raced over a mile and a half again, dropping down to 10 furlongs to win the Pretty Polly Stakes before taking in the Nassau Stakes and, after finishing third in the Irish Champion Stakes, dropping down in distance again to a mile to beat Ribchester in the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes.
You have to think that Wild Illusion is more in the mould of Enable than Minding. Not that she has proven herself to be even nearly as good as either, not yet anyway, but stamina is her thing. She was made for the Oaks.
The Godolphin filly was impressive in winning the Prix Marcel Boussac on Arc day at Chantilly last October when, with stamina at a premium on soft ground over a mile, she stayed on strongly to win well.
And she ran well in the 1000 Guineas on her debut this season. Always prominent that day, she came under pressure at the three-furlong marker, but she kept on well to retain fourth place, shaping as if she would be better over further. That hypothesis is backed up by her pedigree too: her dam, Rumh, by stamina influence Monsun, won twice over two miles. The easy ground should be a positive too. She is proven on soft.
But it is possible to pick holes in the favourite's chance. You would have liked to have seen the Prix Marcel Boussac work out a little better than it has so far. Runner-up Polydream was well beaten in the French 1000 Guineas, as was third-placed Mission Impassible, who had already been well beaten in the Prix de la Grotte. Fourth-placed Magical was beaten in the Fillies’ Mile at the end of last season and in the Prix de la Grotte at the start of this one, fifth-placed Zonza was beaten in the Prix Imprudence and the French 1000 Guineas, and sixth-placed Soustraction was beaten in the Prix Vanteaux and the Prix Saint-Alary.
So the first six home in the Marcel Boussac have run a total of 10 times between them since, and not one has won.
Also, Wild Illusion is drawn in stall one today. Much was made yesterday of Saxon Warrior’s draw in stall one in the Derby, he drifted in the betting on the back of his draw, but there wasn’t much made of Wild Illusion’s number one berth in the Oaks. There are only nine runners, which makes it a little easier than if there had been 12 runners, but it is still a negative.
In the 2016 renewal of the Oaks, in which there were also nine runners, Turret Rocks raced from stall one, was sent off at 10/1 and finished seventh. In the nine-runner 2017 renewal, Pocketfulofdreams, admittedly a 50/1 shot, raced from stall one and also finished seventh.
In the last 10 renewals of the Oaks, the record of the filly who has raced from stall one reads 0070020277. Wild Illusion may well win today but, in a race with so many unknowns and so much potential for progression, she looks short.
Aidan O’Brien has sent out six Oaks winners, and he fields five of the nine runners, so it is obvious that he could hold the key today. Choosing between the five is not easy though: two of the last three Ballydoyle winners were not first choices on jockey bookings.
Magic Wand is the choice of Ryan Moore, and it is not surprising that she is shortest of the quintet. She stepped up markedly on her two previous runs when she won the Cheshire Oaks last time. Stepped up to almost a mile and a half for the first time, she made all the running and she stayed on strongly from the top of the home straight to win well. She is an obvious contender today.
Forever Together was an eye-catcher in the Chester race. She didn’t have a lot of room on the run around the home turn, and Donnacha O’Brien had to wait for a gap in the home straight before he could ask her for her effort. When he did, the Galileo filly stayed on well to take second place.
However, her poor run through that race is factored into her odds now. She still has three and a half lengths to make up on her stable companion, and the disparity in their respective odds is probably just about right.
I Can Fly could out-run her odds. Third in the Oh So Sharp Stakes on her final run last year, she shaped encouragingly in the Guineas Trial at Leopardstown in April before running disappointingly in the Guineas. A half-sister to All Of Me, who won her maiden over a mile and a half, she has a chance if you can ignore her Guineas run.
However, Bye Bye Baby is more solid and more interesting. She didn’t win her maiden until her fourth attempt last season but, when she did, she was impressive in so doing. She made all the running in that Newmarket maiden, and she stayed on strongly out of the Dip to come away nicely from Altyn Orda, the pair of them clear.
That form was obviously enhanced when the runner-up sprang a 25/1 shock in the Group 3 Oh So Sharp Stakes over the same course and distance on her next run. And Bye Bye Baby ran out a nice winner of a listed race over a mile on soft ground at Navan next time.
Well beaten in the Salsabil Stakes at Navan on herd debut this term, the Ballydoyle filly stepped forward from that in running out an impressive winner of the Group 3 Blue Wind Stakes last time. Sent to the front from flagfall that day by Seamie Heffernan, she stretched her rivals on the run to the two-furlong marker, and she stayed on strongly through the final furlong to come away nicely from a well-regarded Dermot Weld-trained filly in Jaega.
By Galileo out of the Danehill Dancer filly Remember When, a three-parts sister to Dylan Thomas who finished second to Snow Fairy in the 2010 Oaks, Bye Bye Baby’s breeding and racing style suggest that she could improve for the step up to a mile and a half today. She handles soft ground well, and her forward-going style and willing attitude could be significant assets today.
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