Matt Brocklebank, Ben Linfoot and Dave Ord react to the news Baaeed will head to Ascot for his swansong, while looking for value in the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe market.
Was it simply a matter of William Haggas and co picking which race they wanted to win, or do you think not wanting to lose has won the day here?
Matt Brocklebank: Not wanting to lose may be stretching it a little but when you’re dealing with such an important stallion prospect – at such a massive time for the whole Shadwell operation – picking your battles becomes absolutely paramount.
The clamour was inevitable after York but Haggas has had 10 furlongs in mind all along and if he was watching the Arc trials being run on what the locals were calling ‘soft’ ground on Sunday then he’d probably have had his mind made up for him.
Ascot could be heavy and Baaeed may well be fine at what may well be his optimum trip, but a mile and a half on poached Longchamp ground – that effectively downed Enable a couple of times don’t forget - could have put the horse’s legacy in real bother.
Ben Linfoot: There are few trainers as skilled as William Haggas at playing the percentages. He has phenomenal win strike-rates just about everywhere he goes because he places his horses to advantage and that’s exactly what we’re seeing here.
After initially not having the Arc on his mind it came to his attention that it was shaping up to be a weaker renewal than is usual and he bought himself some time by saying the race had come onto his radar. After weighing things up, he has decided not to ask Baaeed the 1m4f question. He’s sticking with the trip he knows he can win over and that is the original plan of the Qipco Champion Stakes. It’s great news for Ascot.
Obviously, for racing fans, this is a blow. The Arc is seen as the best turf race on the planet, Baaeed is the undisputable best turf horse on the planet and it would have boosted his legacy further were he able to beat the mile-and-a-halfers at ParisLongchamp.
But Haggas has got where he is by not wanting to lose. And he’s got an unbeaten 1/3 chance for the Champion Stakes in his yard. It’s not the news fans of the sport wanted to hear, but I don’t find it surprising and I still can’t wait to see him at Ascot.
David Ord: A simple case of sticking to Plan A. The romantic route was the Arc and the door seemed to be creaking open to Paris but Haggas was always keen to head to Ascot and clearly there was no strong desire from Sheika Hissa and her family in Dubai to change course.
Haggas had the final call last year when it came to Mohaafeth and the Derby – he wanted to swerve Epsom and they did. Ultimately the Arc never appealed to him – and clearly not to the wider team – or not enough for them to make the call to switch course.
It was interesting this week to see Shadwell unexpectedly active at the Keeneland September Sale, spending just less than $2million on three well-bred fillies. Long-term investments for their depleted broodmare band no doubt and at a time when their stallion ranks are set to be significantly bolstered.
Tasleet has had a fantastic season with his first crop on the racecourse, Mohaather’s debut foals are on the ground and being well received and after Ascot Baaeed and Minzaal are likely to be joining them at the Nunnery Stud – as could Baaeed’s full brother and Coronation Cup winner Hukum should connections opt to stand him.
Things are suddenly heading in a very different direction for the team than they were at the end of 2021.
The Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe betting has been blown wide open following the Baaeed to Ascot news - who's your fancy now?
MB: I was amazed to read connections of Onesto weren’t willing to confirm the horse for the Arc after his close second to Luxembourg, but perhaps there were just playing it cool.
He’ll surely be there – especially now – and could well lead the home team but it looks another potentially profitable year for value-hunters and La Parisienne was the eyecatcher for me over the weekend, flashing home from the back to finish third, beaten a neck, in the Prix Vermeille.
She clearly relished the deep conditions, got the new trip well and already had top-class form in the book having given Nashwa a bit of a fright in the Prix de Diane over 10 furlongs. She’s from a small yard, but the general 16/1 looks more than fair.
BL: I liked how Luxembourg put the Irish Champion Stakes to bed and he’s bred for 1m4f, so I get it, but odds as short as 3/1 about him for the Arc do not float my boat whatsoever.
I’d much rather take odds ranging from 11/2 to 7/1 about Sir Mark Prescott’s Alpinista.
She’s been aimed at this race ever since Torquator Tasso, who she beat easily at Hoppegarten, won last year’s Arc and she looks an even better version of herself this season.
At York she beat some good fillies without fuss in the Yorkshire Oaks, another horse she beat with authority, Mendocino, came out and beat Torquator Tasso at Baden-Baden a few weeks ago and she’s versatile regarding ground and tactics.
She’s a very strong stayer at the trip, too, and I think she’s kept a bit up her sleeve. We know she can answer all of the questions facing Luxembourg and she should be favourite now for my money.
DO: Adayar would be the bet at 18/1 if Charlie Appleby was now to show Haggas how to do a U-Turn and head to ParisLongchamp but there was no disguising the fact Ascot was his preferred option immediately after the impressive Doncaster return.
In his anticipated absence I’ll side with Titleholder, a prolific top-flight winner in Japan. This race is their Holy Grail and their turn may finally have come with this four-year-old – in this particular renewal.
Is there anything the Baaeed camp should be worried about in the Qipco British Champion Stakes?
MB: Probably not, to cut a long story short.
As touched upon already, seriously testing ground would ask a new question of Baaeed and it’s worth recalling that connections warned he could skip the QEII last October if the ground had been much worse, but he has enough in hand in terms of pure class to make me think he’ll conquer come what may.
One who could surprise a few people if given the go-ahead of Jean-Claude Rouget’s three-year-old Al Hakeem, who was said to be heading straight for the Arc in the immediate aftermath of his 10-furlong Group Two win at Deauville last month.
I’m not sure he’ll be up to that level just yet but an encouraging effort there may tempt connections into bringing him over and we saw last year with Sealiway that the two-week turnaround can be done.
Al Hakeem is the sort of horse I’ll be watching like a hawk during the Arc with the Champion Stakes market very close to hand.
BL: A monsoon? It’s hard to worry about too much when you’ve got a horse like Baaeed in your cannon but really testing ground would certainly ask a new question of the brilliant son of Sea The Stars.
Most really top-class horses seem to go on any ground, or their class certainly helps them win despite unfavourable conditions, and I expect Baaeed will be able to deal with whatever the weather gods throw at Ascot in the middle of October.
A top-of-his-game Adayar pummelling his way through the Ascot mud could give Baaeed something to think about, but the market has cottoned onto that as Charlie Appleby’s horse is the second-favourite for the race.
With my punting hat on I don’t want to take on Baaeed. But with those Haggas percentages in mind, would it be the biggest surprise in the world, say if the ground ended up being really testing, that he didn’t run at all?
Aidan O’Brien’s Tuesday is on my radar at 33/1 with that in mind. If Luxembourg goes to the Arc it would be a tough ask for him to back-up in this race and it’s hard to think of another Ballydoyle contender.
The Oaks winner ran a fine race behind Alpinista at York and she was too keen in the Prix Vermaille. I’d love to see her at 10 furlongs and at 33/1 she’s a possible bet for the Champion Stakes – although, like everyone else, I suspect, I wouldn’t fancy her to beat Baaeed whatever the conditions.
DO: Only what could have scuppered his Arc chances really – desperate ground and a wide draw. Should he avoid both even the sight of Adayar in a stall next to him is hardly likely to give Jim Crowley palpitations.
The QIPCO British Champion Stakes comes at the end of a long year which is always at the back of your mind but Baaeed has wiggle-room in this – six or eight pounds on ratings – and would need to have a serious off-day not to bag a seventh Group One in what we hope will be early autumn Berkshire sunshine.
It's only his fifth outing of the season too, first for six weeks, and he's in the right hands so it's hard to find too many causes for concern now that the big decision - which as it turns out wasn't really for the team - has been made.
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