Rohaan wins again at Ascot

Ayr Gold Cup Festival preview, tips, trainer quotes & horses to follow

By Ed Watson

Horse Racing

Sat September 23, 2023 · 2y ago

Ed Watson is our man on the ground for Scotland’s biggest and most valuable Flat fixture of the year - the three-day Ayr Gold Cup Festival.

Scottish Sun columnist and Racing TV analyst Ed Watson casts a critical eye over the final day of the Ayr Gold Cup Festival, where he fancies an Irish raider to upset the favourite in Scotland’s only Group race.

ROYAL RHYME (2.15)

The defection of last season’s Champion Stakes third My Prospero from the Doonside Cup offers Royal Rhyme an ideal opening to make a successful transition into Listed company.

Karl Burke’s Lope De Vega colt obliterated a field of fellow three-year-olds at Goodwood’s big meeting two months ago, sauntering clear to win by six-and-a-half lengths hard held.

The natural reaction to such a wide-margin romp is to question what the winner beat. While it’s true a number of horses simply didn’t cope with the attritional conditions following a non-stop deluge on the South Downs, the subsequent evidence suggests it is strong form. The third, Alsakib, and seventh, Silver Sword, both landed valuable heritage handicaps on the next starts. The fifth, Crack Shot, also won next time out, adding further weight to the impression this rapid improver was masquerading as a Group horse in a handicap off a mark of 95. Now rated 108 and with underfoot conditions to suit, he looks capable of progressing past main market rival Pride Of America, who has come up short on his previous ventures into Pattern company.

The Inside Word: “The way Royal Rhyme won at Goodwood last time was that of a horse who’s better than a handicapper. He does have quite a high knee action, so he handles soft ground. The biggest thing for him right now is that it just helps to relax because he can be a bit buzzy. Nothing went right for him at Newbury the time before. We got caught wide, he was a bit keen and his breathing was all out. He’s still learning and I think there’s more to come. We must have a big shout.”- Clifford Lee, jockey

AYR Gold Cup Selections

WATCH: Click here for the full Ayr Gold Cup preview

NAVASSA ISLAND & PRIME ART (3.0)

Raqiya has won back-to-back fillies-only races at Salisbury and Haydock in the style of a useful sort. The unbeaten Great Generation has created a good impression in her two wins also. However, I can’t help but think the layers have priced up the market for the Group 3 Firth Of Clyde based more on reputation and potential, than form in the book.

Dorothy Lawrence has arguably achieved most, finishing fourth in the Sky Bet Lowther and then last time when pipped at the post in Salisbury’s Dick Poole. Karl Burke’s filly, who made heavy weather of winning a maiden over 5f at Ayr prior to that, looks all speed and might not see out this extra furlong as well as some, especially back on easy ground.

By my reckoning, the oddsmakers are underestimating the claims of both Irish raiders. Navassa Island got off the mark at the fourth time of asking in a Curragh maiden six weeks ago. That a shrewd operator like Michael O’Callaghan was prepared to throw her into a Group 3 to take on much experienced rivals on debut tells me plenty about the regard this half-sister to Lezoo is held in.

It was a bold move which almost paid off, as the daughter of Territories put clear daylight between her and the rest in running the now-105-rated Porta Fortuna to a neck. She didn’t reproduce that form at Royal Ascot, where Porta Fortunta made it three straight wins in the Albany. Or next time when upped to an extended 7f at Leopardstown.

I’m convinced there were valid excuses for both of those blips; and she showed much more of what she’s about at the Curragh last time, where she got the better of a next-time-out Newbury maiden winner (who’s rated 98) and debuting colt which went on to land a Group 3 next time. At as big as 6/1, Navassa Island looks overpriced to follow in the hoofprints of her dam Roger Sez, who won this Group 3 prize for Tim Easterby 12 years ago

Prime Art, who was making her debut in that Curragh maiden won Navassa Island, has seven lengths to make up on her old rival. She shaped well on the wrong side of the track that day, though. And she bounced back from a lesser effort upped to 7f next time when breaking her duck in willing fashion at Naas nine days ago.

This race has thrown up winners at 25/1, 20/1, 16/1 (twice) and 11/1 in the last eight renewals, and I can’t imagine Johnny Murtagh sending this Churchill filly over the Irish Sea if he felt she didn’t have a better chance than her 33/1 odds imply.

ROHAAN & RAZAMAN (3.35)

Form figures of 8070760 hardly scream winner of one of the most competitive sprint handicaps of the season. More likely that Rohaan’s powers are on the wane. That may be true to a degree, with his mark having tumbled 13lb this term. And it’s hardly a positive that he lines up in Scotland carrying 4lb more than he would do were the Ayr Gold Cup not an early-closing race.

Yet I’m not convinced the Rohaan of 2023 has lost the plot completely in a way those numbers imply. Three of those seven starts this season have come in Group 1; another in a Group 3 where the modest early pace was completely against him. Ditto the drop back to 5f when sent off favourite for a handicap at Newcastle’s Racing League fixture.

Six-furlong cavalry charges are what bring out the best in Rohaan, as his 2021 and 2022 Wokingham wins off marks 8lb and 5lb higher respectively than he runs off here illustrate.

It’s only just over a year since he was pushing Highfield Princess to a length in a Group 1 at Deauville. And under a year since he finished fourth to Kinross in the Group 1 on Champions Day.

That’s enough to tempt to take a punt on the helter-skelter set-up of an Ayr Gold Cup allowing Rohaan’s back class to come to the fore once again, even if he might need a bit of luck from stall 25.

The Inside Word: “Rohaan is drawn in stall 25, although I don’t know if that’ll turn out to be good or bad! He’s probably the best horse in the race and is more than capable of winning it if he wants to. He seems well in himself. We could just do with a bit of rain now.” - David Evans, trainer

One old sage always told me never to put all your eggs in one basket when it comes to the draw. In that sense, Oisin Orr should have all bases covered from stall 12 with Razaman. Richard Fahey’s three-year-old is getting better with every run, stays this trip well and has garnered enough experience to cope with the rough and tumble of a big handicap. He’s second choice.

The Inside Word: “Razaman is an interesting runner and the more rain the better for him – he doesn’t mind it soft. On pedigree he’s a sprinter, but his best form is at 7f. I’m hoping with the ground as it is we’ll get away with coming back to 6f. He’s in good order and I’m very pleased with him.”

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