Scottish Sun columnist and Racing TV pundit Ed Watson is our man on the ground for the biggest and most valuable Flat fixture of the year north of the border. In the first of three daily pieces, Ed has a trio of fancies for Thursday’s eight-race curtain-raiser.
THE NAP
ASHNAK (17:01 Ayr)
A blatant non-stayer over 1m6f on deep ground last time, ASHNAK returns to the scene of arguably his best run of the season when runner-up to Square Necker over this same track and trip in June.
Whether or not he was an unlucky loser is open to conjecture. But he certainly fared best of those who came from off the pace to split three horses who’d controlled what was little more than a dawdle from the get-go.
Two lesser runs have followed; firstly on quicker terrain at York, then in a Haydock bog. However, he shaped far better than the form book tells you behind Godolphin handicap blot Aegean Prince in the Old Borough Cup 12 days ago, moving stylishly through the contest only to wilt inside the final quarter-mile.
Not given a hard time by Danny Tudhope once his chance had gone, compensation awaits back on a more suitable surface and with no Group horse in a handicap to worry about.
The Inside Track: “It looked like he didn’t stay in the Old Borough Cup, but I also think I got there way too soon on him. This trip is fine for him if ridden accordingly and he should have a good chance.” - Danny Tudhope, jockey
THE POTENTIAL IMPROVER
TRINCULO (16.00 Ayr)
A fine, scopey sort, TRINCULO smacked of a work in progress in his first four starts for George Baker. There are undoubtedly still some rough edges to be smoothed off if he’s to reach a level of form to match his undeniable good looks, but this well-bred son of Caravaggio is by far the most intriguinh contender for the 1m handicap.
It’s a trip he’s stepping out to for the first time (all runs over 6f so far) following a fifth-place finish on his handicap bow at Kempton 11 weeks ago, when interestingly he was sent off favourite. He’s also making his debut here for Hugo Palmer, who has a decent record with horses he gets from other yards, and is taking on older, more exposed handicappers for the first time.
On the flip side, he’s unproven on slow ground, while he has shown a tendency to get warm in the preliminaries. More time, therefore, may be required before he truly gets to grips with what's required and puts all of the pieces together. However, given his pedigree and striking physical appearance, I suspect he’ll be capable of doing some damage from a modest mark of 68 when he does.
The Inside Track: “It’s always hard to tell at home what you’ve got when you inherit a horse from another yard, so we’ll learn a lot more about him here. The aim is to get him to relax and finish off his race nicely. He’s a beautiful-looking horse and I see him as a miler.” - Hugo Palmer, trainer
THE PUNT
KELPIE GREY (16.30 Ayr)
There is surely no better handicapped horse running on Thursday than KELPIE GREY, who finished a close sixth in last year’s Bronze Cup off a mark of 79. Fast forward 12 months, he tackles the 0-65 handicap over 7f off bottom weight from a mark of just 56.
There are reasons behind such a significant slide down the ratings scale, of course. It could be down to a dulling of his ability, his attitude, or maybe even both. Yet the fact this six-year-old has been sent off favourite for five of his last eight races, since shaping like he’d sharpen up for his seasonal return back in the spring, suggests those closest to him either have very deep pockets, or they continue to see signs on trainer Jim Goldie’s gallops that a revival is imminent.
It’s proving a long wait if it is. But if it is to happen, surely it will be from this new career-low mark, back at a track and trip he’s won over twice before, and with headgear (in the shape of a visor) enlisted for the first time on his 38th career start.
It's a risky one, but then aren't they always the most rewarding ones to nail?
The Inside Track: “It’s Paul’s idea to stick the visor on him because he’s not been trying a sausage of late. We felt we had to try something different. If it works, he’s very well handicapped.” - Jim Goldie, trainer
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