Andrew Asquith steps in for Matt Brocklebank in this week's Value Bet column and has three recommended bets at Ascot.
Value Bet tips: Saturday, November 4
1pt win Twinjets in 1.30 Ascot at 16/1 (bet365)
1pt win Bad in 3.15 Ascot at 10/1 (bet365, Betfair, Paddy Power, BetVictor)
1pt win Victtorino in 3.45 Ascot at 14/1 (bet365, Betfair, Paddy Power)
V for Victory at Ascot
Wetherby’s card on Friday fell by the wayside and they will inspect again at 7am on Saturday morning to see whether Saturday’s card will go ahead, so it is a little touch and go.
There isn’t much that interests me from a betting perspective at Wetherby, anyway, so I am going to focus on Ascot, which hosts some competitive handicaps, notably the Sodexo Live! Handicap Chase.
The most interesting horse in the race for me – with an eye to the rest of the season at least – is the Jonjo O’Neill-trained Monbeg Genius, who made a very positive start to his chasing career last season.
He won three of his five starts and shaped particularly well when third in the Ultima at the Cheltenham Festival when last seen. That form could hardly have worked out any better, either, with the winner, Corach Rambler, going on to record an impressive success in the Grand National, while the runner-up, Fastorslow, lowered the colours of Cheltenham Gold Cup winner Galopin des Champs in the Punchestown Gold Cup.
Monbeg Genius travelled through that contest like a horse who has plenty more to offer and time has told that he bumped into two incredibly well-handicapped horses. Therefore, he looks very interesting on his return from 7 lb higher, but he needed the run on his return last season (albeit on his chase debut) and he likely has bigger targets ahead – he holds an entry in the Coral Gold Cup at Newbury next month, a race which looks perfect for him. For that reason I’m willing to oppose Monbeg Genius and, given he is taking a chunk of the market, there should be some value further down the list.
Beauport didn’t progress as expected last season, but he was impressive on his chase debut and return last season when accounting for Grade 1-winning novice Millers Bank at Carlisle (in receipt of 12 lb), and he shaped better than the bare result in the Kim Muir. He isn’t handicapped out of this and could go on this season, but he is priced about right.
Eldorado Allen also has some solid form in the book, finishing runner-up to Bravemansgame in the Charlie Hall on his return 12 months ago, and also filling the same position in the Betfair Chase at Haydock, before hitting the frame in the King George. He looks interesting back in a handicap and Freddie Gingell is good value for his 7lb claim, so he has to be considered also.
However, I’m going to take a chance on five-year-old VICTTORINO, who had plenty of chasing experience when trained in France, and he showed some useful form, winning a couple of handicaps up to two miles and six furlongs.
He was strong enough in the betting for his stable debut in a novice hurdle at Exeter when last seen in March and he showed ability before the lack of a recent run seemingly told and he wasn’t at all knocked about. Victtorino returns from another break now, but he is expected to be much happier back over fences, and Venetia Williams saddled an impressive winner who was making his seasonal return at Chepstow on Tuesday, which suggests the yard may be further forward than they usually are at this time of year.
We know Williams does so well with such types and, pitching Victtorino in a race of this nature on his first start over fences on these shores, may also imply he has been showing up well at home. I think he looks very interesting over a trip and in ground conditions he will relish.
Who's Bad?
Another horse I am keen to get on side is BAD, who represents an in-form trainer in Ben Pauling, and shaped better than the bare result in two starts last season.
He was the subject of a gamble on his British debut in the Fred Winter at the Cheltenham Festival, but he did too much too soon, travelling strongly and showing up well for a long way before his earlier exertions started to tell, headed at the final flight and a spent force on the run-in.
Bad wasn’t as keen in a valuable juvenile handicap over this course and distance on his final start (that form has worked out really well), but that was a messy race, the field still tightly bunched turning for home and he also received a bump around the same time. He stuck to his task without ever posing a threat but he left the impression he has an even bigger effort in his locker.
This race seems sure to be run at a strong tempo, with the likes of Altobelli, Knickerbockerglory and Thereisnodoubt all horses who like to get on with it, and a more truly-run race is sure to be in the favour of Bad. He is now 4lb lower than he was in the Fred Winter and I expect him to run a big race in ground which won’t bother him (won on heavy in France).
Twin attack
There is also an interesting novices’ handicap chase earlier on the card and, while there are a few in here who have chasing experience and look promising, there are a couple of horses who I have been waiting to go over fences, namely TWINJETS and Scarface.
Both have physiques which suggest they will improve on their hurdling form once seeing a fence and I think Twinjets’ price is too big. He won both of his starts in bumpers, running to a high level when defying a penalty at Haydock in May 2022, and he progressed well over hurdles last season, winning three times, including a heavy-ground novice at Kempton.
He was well beaten in the Silver Trophy Handicap Hurdle (won by his bigger-priced stablemate) at Chepstow on his return last month, but he shaped much better than the bare result implies. Twinjets was too lit up after six months off, failing to settle but was still in with every chance jumping three out, but the lack of peak fitness and the energy he had expended earlier began to tell soon after.
That run will have blown away the cobwebs and the handicapper has kindly dropped him 3lb. A lengthy gelding, who was a winner in Irish points, his future very much lies over fences and he appears to have been underestimated in the market.
Preview posted at 1345 GMT on 03/11/2023
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