Our Value Bet expert takes a look at the six races on British Champions Day and pinpoints the dark horses to consider for Ascot.
1.15 – QIPCO British Champions Long Distance Cup (Group 2)
Kyprios and Trueshan are both top-class when the going gets tough and, given the forecast with more rain to come, I think we can safely err on the side of soft ground at Ascot even if the round-course races are switched to the inner jumps track.
Kyprios' 20-length victory in the 'très souple' conditions in last year’s Prix du Cadran isn’t the sort of performance you forget in a hurry and while only out just the once since then, his was a perfectly respectable effort in last month’s Irish St. Leger, especially when you consider how adamant Aidan O’Brien was pre-race that the horse badly needed a run and was still short of his peak.
If he's back to his 2022 best, Kyprios should justify short-priced favourite and if not, Trueshan does look most likely to pick up the pieces, though he’s probably the one that looks too short around 15/8.
The only horses I could consider backing against the top two are the Gosden-trained pair of Trawlerman and SWEET WILLIAM.
The former arrives in good form and certainly didn’t look out of place when third behind Trueshan (and Coltrane) in this event 12 months ago – in fact, Dettori may have regretted not kicking for home a bit sooner as he was only beaten three lengths having been headed after the two-furlong marker, and wasn’t falling back in the closing stages.
He's unproved on bad ground, however, whereas Sweet William clearly copes with anything and the lightly-raced four-year-old is also the one with scope to improve on what we’ve already seen from him.
Granted, he didn’t appear to be doing Rab Havlin any favours when hanging late on in the Doncaster Cup but that was another step up the ladder from the son of Sea The Stars on bare form terms, and he’s probably going to be happier over this two-furlong shorter trip anyway. Reversing the form with Trueshan, who was kept away from his rivals in the Doncaster straight which may ultimately have hindered the runner-up, isn’t at all out of the question
The strong-travelling Sweet William will probably be held onto as long as possible and could be the sort of horse to back in the market ‘without Kyprios’ once it becomes available after final declarations - and providing the price is right.
Outsider to consider: Sweet William ‘without Kyprios’
Click here for Sky Bet's latest antepost odds for Champions Day
1.50 QIPCO British Champions Sprint Stakes (Group 1)
The reigning champ Kinross is hardening by the day at the head of the market for the big sprint as he’s clearly going to have his ground, and he also looks the principal chance for Frankie Dettori to ‘sign off’ with a winner in before heading into the sunset for California.
Kinross wasn’t able to repeat his warm-up victory in the Prix de la Foret this month but only went down half a length having been forced to switch in the final furlong (objection thrown out), and does look as good as ever at the age of six.
Aside from the favourite, recent support for Vadream is understandable and while Shaquille now has a question mark over him after Haydock’s Betfair Sprint Cup, he still brings the best form to the table based on the July Cup victory over Run To Freedom so can't be dismissed out of hand.
The Newmarket runner-up was also below-par at Haydock but we didn’t really the best of a bunch of horses that day including sixth Mill Stream, ninth Saint Lawrence, who was a massive market drifter, and ROHAAN, who has since hammered the point home with a good run in the Ayr Gold Cup and victory back here over his favourite course and distance at the last meeting. He's evidently coming back to the boil.
Now 5-8 over six furlongs at Ascot, Rohaan loves to get his toe into the ground these days and another look back at last year’s race shows he was probably unlucky only to finish fourth, being the only one in the first seven to have emerged from a single-figure stall.
The draw will be important again but a good pace looks all but assured and Ryan Moore is booked for Rohaan for the first time since they won the Wokingham last summer.
I've backed Spycatcher already but wasn't blown away by his last run at Doncaster, although trainer Karl Burke has suggested he probably needed it and the horse will be physically sharper this weekend, while Aesop's Fables was a horse I flagged up after his run in the Abbaye with a possible shot at the Breeder's Cup in mind and the fact he's been given an entry at Dundalk on Friday week suggests they may want to give him a spin there rather than on the bad ground at Ascot.
Outsider to consider: Rohaan at 14/1
Click here for Sky Bet's latest antepost odds for Champions Day
2.25 QIPCO British Champions Fillies & Mares’ Stakes (Group 1)
There are few finer jockeys than Frankie Dettori in all facets of the job but he’s got to be the best at already seeing the bigger picture mid-race and bringing a horse home gently with another day in mind.
That looked the case to me with Free Wind in the Arc as she didn’t appear to be on a going day from some way out and Frankie acted accordingly. If we’re judging her on the Yorkshire Oaks second to serious talent Warm Heart then the Gosden filly has a massive form chance here, even if it’s been suggested she wouldn’t want it bottomless underfoot (as it was at Goodwood).
Even so, it feels like a race that could throw up a surprise as Jackie Oh was stuffed here in the summer and isn’t proven over the mile and a half yet either.
On a line through Warm Heart, Prix Vermeille fourth Rue Boissonade – the only French-based runner in the field – isn't without claims, though she didn't repeat quite the same level of form in the Prix de Royallieu albeit over an extra couple of furlongs.
Henry De Bromhead’s Term Of Endearment has attracted midweek support with the ground expected to suit, but Timeform have Jessie Harrington’s TREVAUNCE 7lb superior to that one, and she's a much bigger price.
A daughter of Muhaarar, Trevaunce has predominantly been campaigned at 10 furlongs and she won a Group 3 and a Group 2 over that trip last year, before getting done for class in the Prix de l’Opera.
She’s been set some stiff tasks this time around too, including in the Tattersalls Gold Cup and the Pretty Polly at the Curragh. After a brief summer break she’s put in three better efforts – fitted with cheekpieces the last twice – and coped well enough with the return to G1 level in Germany last month, splitting the locally-trained India and Charlie Appleby’s globetrotting Siskany, with the Ebor third Live Your Dream (also Appleby-trained) back in fifth.
That was her first try at the 12-furlong trip and she stayed it well on the soft ground so is clearly less exposed than some of these when it comes to competing over the distance. She’s an intended runner by all accounts and looks underestimated in the betting.
Outsider to consider: Trevaunce at 50/1
Click here for Sky Bet's latest antepost odds for Champions Day
3.05 Queen Elizabeth II Stakes (Group 1)
Getting a shock result in the QEII looks far less likely on paper with all eyes on Paddington, who has had a pretty sensational season already and barely put a scratch in his reputation despite suffering a first defeat in eight starts when third to Mostahdaf in the Juddmonte International.
However, with Tahiyra on the drift due to ground concerns, Aidan O’Brien’s colt is getting a very skinny price and you’d have to think that wherever he finishes, the French horse FACTEUR CHEVAL won’t be far behind him.
He ended up beaten just a length and a half when second to Paddington in a rain-hit renewal of the Sussex Stakes and he’s since backed up that good effort with a sound third on drying ground in the Prix du Moulin. Staying on well at the line – as he was in the Sussex in fairness – Facteur Cheval ended up just half a length behind runner-up Big Rock in the Moulin, and I fancy conditions this weekend to be far more suitable for the former.
His sire Ribchester was a game second in the 2017 QEII and the admirably consistent Facteur Cheval could be up to going one better. The more rain they get, the more chance he has of closing the gap on the favourite.
Outsider to consider: Facteur Cheval at 14/1
Click here for Sky Bet's latest antepost odds for Champions Day
3.45 QIPCO Champion Stakes (Group 1)
I think we can safely bend the rules a little here as there are clearly no genuine dark horses in a Champion Stakes and that’s the way it should be. VIA SISTINA does look about as close as you’ll get to a legitimate qualifier in this instance, however, as she's a shorter price for the Fillies & Mares Stakes despite trainer George Boughey issuing an ‘all systems go’ bulletin for the Champion. And it looks the right call for his smooth-travelling mare, whose only low-key run this year came when third to Nashwa in the Falmouth at Newmarket.
That was a swift turnaround run just 13 days on from her ridiculously easy Pretty Polly win at the Curragh and the drop back to a mile on good ground clearly caught her out.
She’s evidently better after a break so keeping her fresh since the agonising defeat to subsequent Sun Chariot second Mqse De Sevigne in the Prix Jean Romanet (Trevaunce was fourth there) looks a shrewd move and she’ll cope as well as anything with the forecast wet weather.
With Oisin Murphy booked to ride, I still think there’s juice in her price despite the fact she’s got to concede a pound to smart three-year-olds King Of Steel, Horizon Dore and Royal Rhyme.
Outsider to consider: Via Sistina at 8/1
Click here for Sky Bet's latest antepost odds for Champions Day
4.25 Balmoral Handicap (Sponsored by QIPCO)
There’s a long old shortlist for the Balmoral Handicap and, personally, I don’t like to nail my colours to the mast in this until the final field, the draw and the state of the ground is known. However, there’s no harm in thrashing a few ideas out and top of the shortlist currently is Frankel colt Al Mubhir (12/1 generally), whose form has worked out repeatedly all season, including a wide-margin victory at Leicester back in April from the recent Ayr Silver Cup winner Wobwobwob.
Al Mubhir is best when the mud is flying and has already produced eyecatching efforts in big-field handicaps having been fifth in the Lincoln on his seasonal return and eighth after suffering trouble in-running in the Golden Mile at Goodwood. Everything about him screams Group horse in a handicap, though he obviously won’t be alone in that regard.
Further down the weights and the one I’m most interested in at current odds is 10-race maiden DANCING MAGIC, who this time last year was limbering up to face Auguste Rodin in the Futurity Trophy at Doncaster. He didn’t run badly in the face of a stiff Group 1 assignment on heavy ground that day and while a bit quiet in four runs since finishing third in the Craven on his return to action this spring, his mark has come tumbling down from 106 to 98.
He’s now deemed ready to make his belated handicap debut and trainer Roger Teal has gone to the trouble of booking Murphy, which looks ominous. Let's hope it's a good day for the two-time former champion jockey.
Outsider to consider: Dancing Magic at 16/1
Click here for Sky Bet's latest antepost odds for Champions Day
Published at 1530 BST on 18/10/21
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