We asked the Sporting Life Racing Podcast panel for their idea of the best bets in Sunday's Qatar Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe.
Fran Berry: White Birch
Minnie Hauk is very obvious but with his style of racing and the weather forecast now I’m definitely going to back White Birch.
He’s 40/1 and looked like he needed the run behind Delacroix in the Irish Champion last time, finishing on the heels of some very good horses. One day another big race could still fall his way. If the ground comes up soft I can see him running a big race and he’d be a fun horse to ride.
Graham Cunningham: Minnie Hauk & Kalpana
I’d be surprised if Aventure didn’t run the same race as last year and is this year’s race stronger? Bluestocking, Los Angeles, it might be, but I think she’s sure to run well.
But I want to go back to Minnie Hauk. Some Aidan O’Brien quotes you take with a dollop of salt but the one about her getting better and better in a high tempo race where good horses start to drop away one by one, I buy it 100%. She’s a massive slab of a filly, thriving physically, and I think she’s ready to run a huge race.
Aventure is very solid but however long we talk about this race, there are seven, eight, nine, maybe ten horses within a few pounds of each other, it’s that type of contest, and there aren’t too many you can put a complete line through.
And I want to throw my hat into the ring for Kalpana too. Ben Linfoot has been a long-term fan and so have I. I was disappointed she couldn’t beat Giavellotto in the September Stakes at Kempton but that King George form is very good.
Calandagan is as good as anything around in Europe at the moment at 2000 or 2400 metres and Rebel’s Romance has polished the form since - he won another Group One in America at the weekend - and I think her King George run puts Kalpana right in the mix here and the forecast rain would be the cherry on top. At 16/1 or thereabouts, she’s right up there with the best of these on that Ascot form.
David Johnson: Daryz
It’s a very open race but from a price point of view the one that interests me most is Daryz.
Obviously the only disappointment in his career to date came in that messy Juddmonte International at York and that can be readily forgiven. If Croix Du Nord is around an 8/1 chance I don’t see why this fellow is 16/1-plus.
There was virtually nothing between them in that Group Three last time. Yes, it was a trial for Croix Du Nord, but it was very much a trial for Daryz as well as he had to run well there to put himself back into contention to run in the Arc.
I thought he ran a cracker, conceding first run and doing his best work at the finish. He hasn’t yet raced over a mile-and-a-half but looks to me like he’ll be suited by the trip and I think he’s a late maturing three-year-old who’s going to deliver a big career best on the day.
He’s by Sea The Stars, out of a very good mare in Daryakana, and there are lots of other good Aga Khan horses in that pedigree. I think he’s bound to run really well.
Matt Brocklebank: Daryz & Kalpana
I think they made a mistake bringing Daryz over for the Juddmonte International. He was a really inexperienced horse, like Ace Impact a couple of years ago, he never even ran at two. So he’s come a long way in a short space of time and completely blew out at York.
Now, I backed him before that for the Arc at 14/1 and you’re looking at the same sort of price now because he got back on track last time. The key to this horse is ParisLongchamp, he’s fantastic there.
He’s won there times at the track and been chinned by Croix Du Nord too. There was talk about the Japanese horse being 70% or 80% fit but I think DJ’s nailed it, Daryz can improve a good chunk for going a mile-and-a-half.
He’s made for this trip, he’s made for this race, and don’t overlook the fact that trainer Francis-Henri Graffard is working miracles this year, rattling off Group One wins all season. I think Daryz has been trained for the race.
As GC said, if Calandagan was in here I think he’d be 7/4 or 2/1 so I’m going to cover with Kalpana as I’d kick myself if she won at a double-figure price knowing fine well she has that Ascot form to her name. But the key to me is that form with Croix Du Nortd and Daryz, and 14/1 is still fair value for the French three-year-old.
Billy Nash: Aventure & Cualificar
I like Aventure, she’s been on my radar for a while and has been trained with this race absolutely in mind all year. I think you have to say on the evidence of what we’ve seen this year she’s every bit as good as she was when second in the race last year. I think she deserves her place towards the head of the market.
I’d have massive respect for the Japanese colts, especially Croix Du Nord, who could be really good but the ground is a complete unknown and if I was to throw one up at a bigger price who is going in under the radar a little it is Cualificar.
He’s the other Andre Fabre horse who ran really well in the French Derby and I thought did particularly well to win the Prix Niel. It might not have been the greatest race but he got out of a pocket to win it.
That was his first time at a mile-and-a-half, he’s probably open to a bit more improvement and was only beaten in a bobbing finish at Saint-Cloud on heavy ground.
The going shouldn’t be an issue and at around 12/1, he might even be bigger on the day, and I can see him running into a place. They’d be my two against the field.
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