The talking is almost over and it's time for the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe verdicts - find out who our team expect to win the great race.
From the Podcast
Ed Chamberlin - Snowfall
I'm sticking by my guns and sticking with Snowfall. The Vermeille was a prep, the rain is in her favour and a good three-year-old filly getting all the weight is deadly in an Arc.
David Johnson - Chrono Genesis
It's very much Chrono Genesis to end the Japanese hoodoo for me. She's the value bet in a race in which the claims of the front two in the market, Adayar and Tarnawa, are also hard to knock.
Ben Linfoot - Adayar
I'm sticking with the Derby winner and expect him to get the job done under William Buick. I don't share the concerns regarding soft ground that have been raised elsewhere and he's the best horse in the race.
Fran Berry - Snowfall & Chrono Genesis
At the odds I'm backing Snowfall and Chrono Genesis - I think they represent a bit of value. You wouldn't be surprised if anything towards the head of the market won it. Snowfall has been pushed out off the back of one poor run but her stable are in much better form now. I really like what I've seen from Chrono Genesis and those two will do me against the field.
Cornelius Lysaght - Chrono Genesis & Sealiway
What a race this is with the Derby winner, St Leger winner, Oaks winner, Breeders' Cup Turf winner and a Japanese star turning up. I really like Chrono Genesis but Sealiway might be the value. He wasn't far behind St Marks' Basilica in the Prix du Jockey Club and has had a typical French preparation for the great race. He comes here fresh and well and I think he might hit the frame - behind Chrono Genesis.
Graham Cunningham - Chrono Genesis
I think Chrono Genesis has a great chance. I've backed her at 16/1 and I think I'll probably back her again. One horse who is a massive price is Torquator Tasso. I don't think he'll win but I think he'll run better than the betting suggests. He's a strong, strong stayer who tries really hard and if it turns into a real battle he'll relish that. But the one horse I feel is overpriced is Chrono Genesis. I've felt that all summer and through the autumn too.
David Ord - Adayar
I think the Derby winner will come out on top. I'm slightly concerned about him heading here so fresh having missed the Niel. William Buick will need to settle him early which won't be easy from the draw. We'll know our fate after two or three furlongs but if things fall right he's the one to beat.
Rest of the team:
Andrew Asquith - Adayar
It is a cracking renewal of the Arc this year and strong cases can be made for several, but the one who stands out above all is Derby and King George winner Adayar.
He was seemingly Charlie Appleby’s third string when producing a top-class performance in the Derby before becoming the first winner of the Epsom classic since Galileo, and just the sixth three-year-old this century, to follow up in the King George at Ascot.
Just like at Epsom, he showed speed, stamina and a cracking attitude to beat Mishriff and Love last time and all roads have led to Longchamp since. The likely soft ground won’t hinder him – won his maiden in heavy ground last year – and there doesn’t appear to be any chinks in his armour.
Tony McFadden - Hurricane Lane
Much will be made of the fact no St Leger winner has followed up in the Arc, but horses should always be treated on their individual merits and there is plenty in the favour of Hurricane Lane.
Hurricane Lane has won six of his seven starts, with his one defeat coming when third behind stablemate Adayar and Mojo Star in the Derby at Epsom. It's not difficult to find excuses for that performance, however, as he seemed ill at ease on the undulating track and lost two shoes.
Hurricane Lane has since won the Irish Derby, Grand Prix de Paris over this course and distance and put up a high-class display in the St Leger. The ease of his last two wins suggest he is capable of an even bigger performance and a mile and a half on rain-softened ground could be his optimum conditions.
Adam Houghton - Adayar
Adayar still had some way to go to convince me that he was a top-class talent after the Derby, particularly as he seemed to be the Godolphin third string on paper and the horse who chased him home at Epsom was a maiden sent off at 50/1. It’s also worth remembering how many recent Derby winners have failed to win another race subsequently, no fewer than eight this century.
Adayar has already gone one better than that lot by following up in the King George at Ascot last time, though, and it’s that performance which has me convinced that he is our Arc winner. Mishriff might not have been at his very best when filling the runner-up spot at Ascot, but it was the style of Adayar’s success which struck me more than anything, still appearing full of running at the line despite having fought for his head in the early stages.
The son of Frankel clearly has a massive engine and, provided he is capable of giving his Ascot running after 10 weeks on the sidelines, I think we’ll be talking about a historic treble come Sunday evening.
Matt Brockebank - Adayar
Having got Chrono Genesis on side antepost at 16/1 at the start of September, I’m not madly in love with the idea of doubling down on her at single-figure odds now having been given a bit of a stinker of a draw in stall 14 of 15.
That said, I’m confident she has the raw ability to run a huge race and her pedigree, action and form on yielding going in her homeland gives me cause for optimism regarding the ground.
However, if you’re coming to the race fresh then Adayar is the horse they all have to beat and odds around 3/1 are more than fair. The Derby has been a very reasonable trial for the Arc in recent years – four of the last 10 Epsom winners to have come here actually won – and his King George defeat of Mishriff, form which ties in closely with Chrono Genesis, marked him down as a seriously good colt with plenty more to offer.
He’s not brilliantly drawn either in 11 but can hopefully get cover from Broome in stall seven as if he settles well enough early, it’s going to take a huge effort to beat him.
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