Alex Hammond is limbering up for a busy weekend on Sky Sports Racing - she looks ahead to the Arc and other major Longchamp races in her latest blog.
Two fillies head the betting for this year’s Arc de Triomphe – how do you weigh up the Aventure v Minnie Hauk battle?
It should be a cracker. I said in my most recent blog that I was a fan of Aventure and I’m not going to change that now, particularly considering the forecast which has around 20mm of rain in it.
There’s no getting away from the fact that three-year-old fillies get a significant weight advantage though and Minnie Hauk has gone from strength to strength this season. I do like horses that have had experience of the great race the previous year and Aventure ticks that box having finished runner-up to Bluestocking 12 months ago.
Sky Bet can’t separate the duo with them both trading at 7/2 joint-favourites at the time of writing. Whether one of those two wins though is another story in an open-looking year.
Japan is well represented once again. Could this be the year for the great racing nation to win a first Arc?
Well, they are hard to ignore and becoming more of a threat to the European runners with each passing year.
The fact that Oisin Murphy had his name inked next to Byzantine Dream in mid-summer, and the four-year-old has since beaten Sosie in the Prix Foy, puts him up there as the main protagonist for the hopes of the nation. The market suggests that too with the horse a 9/1 shot with Sky Bet, one point bigger than Sosie. The rain that is forecast might not be an issue, he won’t lack for stamina, and he could be set to run a big race. Will he make history? Time will tell...
Japanese Derby winner Croix Du Nord is 8/1 after beating Daryz a short-head at this track last month but the runner-up was closing with every stride. Alohi Alii is also a three-year-old and comes here having won the Prix Guillaume D’Ornano at Deauville last time.
Is there anything among the outsiders that appeals to you as a tempting each-way alternative?
It’s always worth chucking something in at a price, and it’s also worth keeping your eyes peeled for an outsider with an advantageous draw once the final declarations are made on Thursday morning.
As things stand, I’ll give you Kalpana. She’s no rag but is bigger in the market than she would have been had she not been a disappointing runner-up in the September Stakes. She couldn’t reel in Giavellotto at Kempton which on the face of it was a performance below her best, and whilst he’s a solid performer, he is an exposed six-year-old, and she should have been capable of landing the odds in that Group 3.
Prior to that, her run in the King George (replay below) when second to Calandagan (who can’t run in the Arc as he’s a gelding) put her right up there as a leading contender for the Arc. She’s 12/1 with Sky Bet and that looks tempting enough for an each-way pick.
Sticking with the females, and if it comes up soft, the David O’Meara-trained Estrange could run well. She’s 16/1 and is a likeable filly for Cheveley Park Stud.
Daryz was given too much to do when second to Croix Du Nord in the Prix du Prince D’Orange last month and he’s another at a price (14/1) who could run into a place for the all-conquering Francis Graffard stable. His pedigree would suggest the step up to a mile and a half will suit, being by Arc winner Sea The Stars and out of a mare who stayed 12 furlongs-plus, although he can be keen which could be his weakness.
Graffard has also highlighted how immature mentally this colt is, so this year could all be about the learning curve. The trainer is having a magnificent season and also runs Gezora and Quisisana, and it wouldn’t be a shock if any of his trio were to pop up.
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Give us two or three other names to look out for ahead of a fabulous weekend in Paris.
I’m looking forward to seeing Quddwah in the Prix Daniel Wildenstein on Saturday. The rain coming will be right up his street. He’s Sky Bet’s 3/1 favourite.
Not one horse per se but the Foret is a race I love and the prospect of More Thunder (7/4 favourite) taking on Zarigana (7/2) along with the likes of Maranoa Charlie, Sajir and Topgear is making this one of the most exciting races of the weekend for me.
The first couple of races on Sunday for the juveniles, the Prix Marcel Boussac for the fillies, and the Prix Jean Luc Lagadere for the colts (& fillies but non entered) should throw up something special too.
In all honesty, the whole weekend is special, and I’m thrilled to be there covering both Saturday and Sunday in their entirety for Sky Sports Racing with a fabulous team on track.
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