Antepost betting advice, big-race analysis and tips

A no-bet stance has always been one of the most powerful in a punter’s armoury and having snapped up some fair prices for York, Doncaster and Haydock in recent weeks, I’m content to sit tight and take stock.

Having said that, it’s not like I’ve not been trawling through the races already priced up well in advance in search of a wager. So here are the five horses that I came closest to recommending – and there’s every chance at least one of them will reappear over the next few weeks as running plans and likely opposition become a little clearer.

VADENI – 10/1 for Breeders’ Cup Turf (November 5)

What chance Vadeni turns up for the Breeders’ Cup Turf at Keeneland?

That’s the main question you have to be asking yourself when weighing up the current 10/1 about the Coral-Eclipse winner. Because it’s not hard to see him being a very short-priced favourite if lining up on the day.

Jean-Claude Rouget’s last Breeders’ Cup runner was Zelzal a few years ago now in the 2017 Mile at Del Mar but he was obviously weighing it up for Sottsass before retiring the Arc winner to stud, and the trainer has sent five horses to the meeting in total, Behkabad faring best when third in this race in 2010.

Behkabad ran in the silks of Vadeni’s owner the Aga Khan, who has won the Breeders’ Cup Turf three times outright and also had a share in Daylami. Lashkari won the very first renewal in the famous green and red and Tarnawa was successful a couple of years ago when the Breeders’ Cup was last run at Keeneland.

The Arc may be off the agenda on account of stamina concerns (no confirmation yet, it should be stressed) but if Vadeni gets a mile and a half anywhere it is likely to be around the sharp turns of Keeneland, which rarely gets too quick underfoot, and I make it quite likely he signs off for the year in America on bonfire night.

MALJOOM – 9/1 for Queen Elizabeth II Stakes (October 15)

Everyone’s thinking it and plenty have said it, but it doesn’t appear too many punters have put their money where their mouth is when it comes to Maljoom.

He was dead unlucky not to keep his unbeaten record intact when a fast-finishing fourth to Coroebus in the St James’s Palace Stakes and he’s surely got the potential to go on and become the leading three-year-old colt over a mile.

The Prix Jacques le Marois is reportedly his next station stop and a redeeming success at Deauville will see his price for the QEII contract quite markedly from the current 9/1 (Sky Bet).

The elephant in the room is William Haggas stablemate Baaeed, but if he wins well in the Juddmonte International it will be the Champion Stakes for him, providing connections can smooth over the inevitable clamour for the son of Sea The Stars to try and emulate his sire by winning the Arc, and he's very unlikely to take Maljoom on.

LA PETITE COCO 8/1 for Yorkshire Oaks (August 18)

Four of the last five editions of the Yorkshire Oaks have been won by odds-on favourites – 7/4 shot Sea Of Class the only odds-against in that recent quintet of winners – so being able to approach this year’s event as a genuine betting race could make a refreshing change.

That’s looking highly likely at the moment with 20 still engaged and although Friday’s confirmation stage will see some fall by the wayside, it doesn’t look like we’ll have anything trading shorter than evens come the day.

Alpinista and Magical Lagoon head the market but at twice their price there’s plenty to like about La Petite Coco, who is another on a real roll after ending last year with three wins and successfully taking the move up to top-class company in her stride on her seasonal return in the Pretty Polly.

The Curragh race isn’t always the hottest G1 in the Irish calendar but Minding, Iridessa and Magical are on the recent roll of honour and the great thing about La Petite Coco is that she always gives the impression she’s got a bit more up her sleeve.

I’m sure she was dossing when holding My Astra half a length at bay at the end of June, and bridging a 3lb official BHA ratings gap with Sir Mark Prescott’s Alpinista this month looks perfectly plausible.

The only thing putting me off slightly is that trainer Paddy Twomey has given her an entry in a Cork Group Three over a mile and a half this Friday night and I’d rather hear some confirmation that York is definitely the intended plan before getting financially involved. Especially as it looks like the race will hold its shape nicely heading into Ebor week so there’s no desperate rush to nick a price.

LUXEMBOURG – 20/1 for Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe (October 1)

Timeform’s Irish handicapper and reporter Billy Nash – backed up by a nodding Graham Cunningham, I can confirm - raised the intriguing possibility of Aidan O’Brien aiming Gold Cup and Goodwood Cup hero Kyprios at this year’s Arc de Triomphe on account of the master trainer having no real contender for Longchamp this year.

That may well be the case at the time of writing but there are some massive races still to be run between now and then and, given Luembourg is entered in most of them, it may be worth remembering that he was around 5/2 for the Derby after his running-on third in the 2000 Guineas at the start of the year (replay below).

The son of Camelot has since missed the bulk of the campaign, while his juvenile form hasn’t exactly been working out brilliantly at the same time, but the Arc is among that bunch of long-range G1 entries and, perhaps more significantly, he’s recently been put in Saturday’s G3 Royal Whip at the Curragh too.

That could be a sign that he’s been showing a bit more of the old sparkle ahead of his intended autumn comeback (ruled out of Epsom due to muscular issue which required box rest) and if he’s back on the track in a winnable race by early-August then there’s a fair chance he could be somewhere near peak condition again come October.

In what looks a wide-open Arc market, which saw impressive Gordon Stakes winner New London – who incidentally also missed the Derby in June – cut to 25/1 on the back of his Goodwood win, the widely available 20/1 about Luxembourg is reasonably tempting.

SACRED – 20/1 for Breeders’ Cup Mile (November 5)

Maybe Sacred just isn’t a Group One filly but I’m not giving up hope completely just yet and, after the idea was floated last year before connections thought better of it, it wouldn’t be a surprise if a trip to the Breeders’ Cup was given more serious consideration this time around.

She’s got her Group Three and Group Two wins in the bag already and presumably she’ll be heading for the breeding sheds after this year so there’s no obvious reason not to have as many shots as possible at the highest level and next month’s Matron Stakes is one of five ‘win and you’re in’ Challenge Series races run across Irish Champions Weekend.

There’s a chance she’ll return to York – where she was second in the 2020 Lowther – before then in the City Of York Stakes and it’ll just be good to see her get her head in front again after slightly frustrating efforts in the Platinum Jubilee at Ascot and Lennox Stakes at Goodwood since returning from a layoff.

An easy mile on decent ground could definitely play to Sacred’s strengths come the end of the year, although I must admit to being a little underwhelmed after being quoted 20/1 for the Breeders’ Cup Mile. We’ll continue to watch this space for now.

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