Andrew McLaren is sitting in for Ben Linfoot this week and he has three bets across the Saturday ITV Racing action at Aintree and Sandown.
The Verdict: Saturday December 5
1pt win Jonbon in 15:00 Sandown at 4/1 (bet365, Coral, Ladbrokes)
1pt win Rubber Ball in 15:15 Aintree at 7/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
1pt win Tanganyika in 15:35 Sandown at 4/1 (bet365, William Hill)
Stayers to the fore in the Becher
Good to Soft (Soft in places) is the going description on the National course at Aintree as I write this on Friday afternoon but with up to 10mm of rain in the forecast overnight and into Saturday, with further showers coming through the day, the going will be tough and you will need to stay every inch of the 3m 1f 188y trip.
That will be music to the ears of connections of Mr Vango, a relentless galloper who loves the mud, and it’s easy to see why he’s found his way to the head of the market. I’m happy enough to leave this race alone in truth, but Matt Brocklebank makes a strong case for one at a big price in the Value Bet column.
I do like one at Aintree, though, in the New William Hill Racing Bet Builder Handicap Hurdle, and that’s RUBBER BALL, who was last seen finishing a distant 14th in the Greatwood Hurdle at Cheltenham.
That was a hot race in fairness, and he looked a stayer in the making last season, so he probably found everything just happening a bit fast for him on his first start of the new campaign in a handicap as competitive as that over two miles. I’m not convinced he enjoyed the undulations of that track either.
He's got some strong form in the book, though. Rubber Ball beat Tutti Quanti off level weights in soft ground at Newbury and that horse won the Gerry Feilden at Newbury last week off a mark of 130. Rubber Ball races off 127 on Saturday.
He finally gets to show what he can do over two-and-a-half miles now, has shown he handles plenty of cut in the ground, and the return to a flat should be to his benefit, too.
He looks a well handicapped horse on last season’s form and is a good bet at 9/1 if this step up in trip brings out the expected improvement.
Tingles when Jonbon bounces back...
Is there a bet in the Tingle Creek? JONBON is tempting. This is a home game for him - his record at this track reads 111112 compared to 2212122 at Cheltenham (still not bad for a horse who apparently hates the place).
L’Eau du Sud looked trained to the minute for his comeback, while Jonbon is expected to take a big step forward from that defeat, which was his first run after a wind op.
I fully expect him to reverse the Shloer Chase form with L’Eau du Sud, and this is a horse who has won this race the last two years at odds of 30/100 and 8/13. What price would he be if he was coming straight here rather than on the back of that comeback run?
The one defeat on his Sandown record came at the hands of Il Etait Temps who came back from a year off the track to land the Celebration Chase, and on the face of it it’s hard to make any excuses for Jonbon there, but I wonder if that long break worked in the winner's favour going there fresh.
Jonbon was coming to the end of a long season which started in November where he’d gone to battle in four Grade 1 events, including over two-and-half miles just three weeks prior, so I can forgive him if he was feeling the effects a bit.
He's still a top-class two-mile chaser, and a remarkably consistent one at that, and his performance last time doesn’t change anything.
The man who I’m sitting in for in this column, Ben Linfoot, has been occasionally critical of the horse in the past, and I admit the only way Jonbon would make it into the staking plan here is when he’s not around! But he’s not, and for me, the 4/1 on offer is more than fair back at his favourite track, with a run under his belt, and meeting Il Etait Temps a relatively fresh horse himself this time.
Venetia season is starting
Elsewhere on the Sandown card, I really like the chances of TANGANYIKA in the Betfair Exchange London National Handicap Chase.
He looked a young staying chaser going places when he racked up two quick wins at Market Rasen and Carlisle last season and went a long way to proving that when running a massive race behind Mr Vango in the Midlands Grand National.
If anything, he enhanced his reputation in defeat there, travelling through the race well, as he usually does, and showing he has all the stamina required over these marathon trips.
I loved his comeback run at Cheltenham too when he again travelled through the race with loads of zest, but probably just did too much to soon, his exertions telling late on after he pecked on landing at the last fence.
Given it was his first run for eight months, and his yard hadn’t really begun to fire, I thought it was an effort full of encouragement for the season ahead and I expect him to go very close on Saturday, with every drop of the forecast rain which falls speaking in his favour.
Published at 16:38 GMT on 05/12/25
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