Andrew Asquith, Matt Brocklebank and Tony McFadden offer their thoughts on the pick of the action this weekend.
1) Will it be straightforward for Jonbon in the Tingle Creek at Sandown?
Andrew Asquith: On form, yes. Jonbon is at least 8 lb clear of his rivals on Timeform weight-adjusted ratings, and he looked good when beating regular sparring partners Boothill and Edwardstone on his return in the Shloer. However, he now takes on Irish raider Quilixios and JPR One, who looked better than ever when defying top weight in the Haldon Gold Cup at Exeter on his return. I actually backed Quilixios in the Arkle last year and, while he didn’t quite reach the heights expected last season, he certainly looked good when slamming Marine Nationale at Naas last month. His jumping was very good that day, so he should be fine around Sandown, even with its stiff fences, and it is interesting that Henry de Bromhead brings him over for a crack at Jonbon. With the dead-eight runners, I’d rather side with Quilixios each-way rather than back Jonbon at odds-on, as I’m sure he’s a quality horse.
Matt Brocklebank: Tackling 13 fences around Sandown is rarely all that straightforward but I don’t envisage anything obvious that’ll prevent Jonbon winning it again. I’ve got to applaud connections of the other seven (for now) for standing firm in opposition and I’m particularly pleased to see the British-based second-season chasers Master Chewy and JPR One running as it’ll tell us whether they’re high-class handicappers or a little bit more. I think Joe Tizzard’s horse has a certain swagger about him and he might even win the race for second if held onto by Brendan Powell, but looping back to the actual question – yes, a vote for the odds-on jolly here I’m almost afraid to say.
TM: It's hard to pick holes in a horse who has won 15 of his 18 starts and been runner-up on the other three occasions, finishing behind Constitution Hill and El Fabiolo for two of those defeats. I didn't think Jonbon was wildly impressive on his return at Cheltenham, where he was firmly ridden out, but he was going away at the line again and probably would have benefited from setting a stronger pace. That was a nice launchpad for the season and I'm not looking to oppose him. Looking at which horse will chase him home, I think Master Chewy might offer a spot of value approaching a double-figure price in the without favourite market. He proved himself a very smart novice last season when making Found A Fifty dig deep at Aintree, with the pair well clear, and he's entitled to be sharper following an encouraging comeback effort in an Ascot handicap last month.
2) It's a key weekend with the Champion Chase in mind as Energumene is due back at Cork on Sunday. What's your view on the current picture?
AA: Plenty will depend on what happens at Sandown with Jonbon et al, but Energumene appears to have been found an excellent opportunity to throw himself back into the Champion Chase picture on his belated return. The 2023 Champion Chase winner will be returning from a 593-day absence but vibes from the Mullins camp are positive and, on his best form, he is much superior to the other entries, while he also won the Hilly Way Chase in 2021 and 2022. He is currently a top-price 10/1 chance for the Champion Chase and I personally wouldn’t go near those odds. He’s been off the track with an injury and will be turning 11 years of age, so you have to question how brightly the fire still burns. Hopefully he makes a successful return in style and if he does he’ll certainly add a different dimension to the Champion Chase, particularly if it turns up testing.
MB: I’d love to see Energumene come out and show his true colours, not least because he’s the sort of horse who will probably be aimed at the Clarence House Chase at Ascot again on his way to Cheltenham and that normally ends in drama. Jonbon is so solid but while you couldn’t really say that about Gaelic Warrior, I fully admit that last year’s Arkle winner is a special sort of talent and what a fantastic clash that would be if the pair them were to line up in a Champion Chase on the Wednesday of the Festival.
TM: Energumene is ten rising 11 but he doesn't have many miles on the clock and was an outstanding performer prior to his lengthy layoff. I'd be surprised were he to prove quite as good as before, but he's still likely to be a big player in graded chases in Ireland over the winter, particularly if the mud is flying. I suspect he might find younger legs a bit sharper come Cheltenham, though, and at this stage Jonbon looks the most likely winner to me. There's a case for saying Jonbon might prove even better at two and a half miles, but he's Timeform's highest-rated chaser in Britain based on his two-mile efforts and I can't see connections wanting to step back up in trip, especially as owner JP McManus has plenty of other contenders for the Ryanair.
3) The Henry VIII Novices' Chase at Sandown looks a cracker. Who do you fancy to come out on top?
AA: The Dan Skelton-trained L’Eau du Sud has been installed a short-priced favourite, but he was much shorter earlier in the week, the presence of Down Memory Lane clearly having an effect on the market. Rightly so, too, as he made a deep impression on his return and chasing debut at Navan last month, beating his better-fancied stablemate with plenty in hand. He made most of the running and jumped well, in control when left clear at the final fence, and similar tactics will see him to good effect at Sandown. L’Eau du Sud has also made an excellent start over fences, himself impressive at Cheltenham last time, but the level of his form is perhaps not yet at that of Down Memory Lane, and at the prices I would definitely favour the latter. I’d expect Down Memory Lane to continue shortening.
MB: L’Eau du Sud is a good thing here for me. I just think he’s improved massively for the switch to fences and that’s despite not yet getting his favoured testing ground! He was always highly promising as a handicap hurdler when first coming over from France and I love how he’s tackled his fences to this point. I’m pretty sure the Skeltons have had December 7 circled in the diary for months on end with this grey and I’d be disappointed to see him beaten under what will be ideal conditions.
TM: This is a much stronger edition of the Henry VIII Novices' Chase than usual due to the presence of a rare Irish challenge - the first since Ornua was runner-up for Henry de Bromhead in 2018. Like Andrew, I think the market on Thursday afternoon has underestimated Down Memory Lane - one of two contenders for Gordon Elliott - following an impressive chasing debut at Navan three weeks ago. He possibly has the most untapped potential so gets my vote at around 11/4, for all the favourite L'Eau du Sud is clearly an exciting prospect in his own right.
4) Who is top of your shortlist for the Becher Chase at Aintree?
AA: You have to respect King Turgeon given how well he took to the National course in the Grand Sefton, while top-weight Chianti Classico adds a bit of class to the race, but I like the claims of Cruz Control. I put him up earlier in the week in my Weekend View column, but he has shortened up since then, so he perhaps doesn’t look a bet at his current odds. However, he strikes me as a horse who will relish the switch to the National fences, an accurate jumper who is often ridden prominently and also won a competitive handicap chase on Grand National Day last season. A mark of 140 still looks fair and this second-season chaser is yet to show us all that he’s capable of. A big, strapping horse, he has the scope to be rated much higher come the end of the season, and this will show connections whether or not they have a bona-fide Grand National contender on their hands.
MB: Well, I’d be dead against Chianti Classico who I think faces a mammoth task under top weight on what’s bound to be deep ground at Aintree come Saturday afternoon. I’ve liked Iron Bridge for a while now and perhaps this sort of test will suit him ideally. Horses having their first taste of these fences aren’t at as much of a disadvantage these days as not one of the past three winners had any National Course experience. Iron Bridge’s current mark of 136 looks really handy based on last season’s form when second in the Welsh National off 142 and third in the Grand National Trial off 140. Bad ground and a stamina-sapping trip are precisely what he’s after and he had a nice prep run at Carlisle too.
TM: The Grand National fences may not take anywhere near as much jumping as they used to, but it's surely still a big positive if you clear them as impressively as King Turgeon did when winning the Grand Sefton last month. He jumped superbly and looks likely to launch another bold bid from a 6 lb higher mark, with the step back up in trip unlikely to be a problem given he won over three and a quarter miles on his return at Chepstow in October.
5) Give us another horse you're positive about this weekend
AA: I was really impressed by Willmount when he made a winning debut over hurdles last season and I’m looking forward to his return in the two-mile handicap hurdle at Sandown (2.25). He was an expensive purchase after winning his sole start in points and the fact Nicky Henderson pitched him into a Grade 1 on just his second start over hurdles suggests he’s held in some regard. Of course, that didn’t go to plan, but he wasn’t right after the race, and it was clearly just a bad day at the office. I’m hoping Sandown miss the majority of rain which is forecast and he takes his chance as I’m pretty confident that an opening mark of 130 will underestimate him somewhat.
MB: Martin Todhunter’s Jet Legs in Sunday’s Borders National at Kelso (2.05). He ran in the same race as Iron Bridge at Carlisle and looked like the first outing since April was needed. He’s got more to offer over staying trips and loves it when the mud’s flying.
TM: Yorkshire Lady is a useful sort on the Flat and she made a successful start over hurdles when comfortably landing a mares' novice in February over the same course and distance she tackles on Saturday (12:48 Wetherby). Yorkshire Lady, a half-sister to two winners over hurdles, jumped soundly at the first attempt and quickened up nicely to draw five and a half lengths clear of a subsequent winner. An opening BHA hurdles mark of 110 looks lenient based on that performance, while the level she has shown on the Flat, including this autumn, suggests she could be difficult to beat. on her handicap hurdle debut.
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