All-Weather racing tips, news and tracker horses
It is All-Weather Finals Day on Good Friday and Andrew Asquith has three interesting bets at Newcastle.
All-Weather Angle Racing tips: Friday March 29
1pt e.w. The X O in the 3.35 Newcastle at 40/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4 - Bet365, 33/1 General)
1pt win Elegant Man in the 4.10 Newcastle at 7/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes, 13/2 General)
1pt win Kingdom Come in the 4.40 Newcastle at 8/1 (William Hill, Coral, Ladbrokes)
The all-weather season wraps up on Good Friday and it looks an excellent day’s racing at both Newcastle and Lingfield, the decision to make all of the Championship races handicaps paying dividends as it stands, producing some very competitive fields for punters to get stuck into.
Newcastle is one of my favourite all-weather tracks to bet at, so I’m primarily going to focus on the action there, and the first race I want to get stuck into is the BetUK All-Weather Sprint Handicap, which has attracted a maximum field.
The horse I want to focus on is THE X O, who I put up in this column when he finished third in the three-year-old sprint at this meeting last year. That was obviously run as a conditions race, and he ran a cracker to finish placed behind Desert Cop and Shouldvebeenaring off level weights, given both of those rivals have since gone on to run with credit in Group 1 company.
He actually finished in front of Desert Cop on his next start when splitting Cold Case and Bradsell in the Pavilion Stakes at Ascot and, though he may have been flattered somewhat by finishing second (started at 125/1), Bradsell boosted that form in no uncertain terms when winning the King’s Stand Stakes at Royal Ascot.
The X O has started at big prices in three relatively quick runs on the all-weather since returning from an eight-month break this year, but he has shown marked progress with each start, and you would have to imagine the plan all along has been to get him qualified for this prize. John Ryan has done a very good job, as he has fallen 5lb in the weights in that time, and he shaped much better than his finishing position suggests at Lingfield at the start of this month.
He finished seventh, though he was only beaten one and a quarter lengths by Chipstead, and wasn’t at all far behind Summerghand and Batal Dubai. The X O had a wide draw to contend with that day, kept wide as a result and making a big, sweeping move round the outside on the bend which resulted in him challenging for the lead entering the straight, and he stuck to his task well without being subjected to maximum pressure.
He looked back on great terms with himself that day and it will have put him spot on for this. It is worth noting that his two best efforts to date have come over a straight six furlongs, so the return to this track will be in his favour, and I would expect him to be ridden more patiently this time given the nature of this track. I like his draw in stall 12 and he is slightly better off at the weights with all three of the horses who finished in front of him last time. He is seemingly coming to the boil just at the right time and, though this is a very deep race, The X O looks overpriced to me.
The All-Weather Championships Mile Handicap features a strong and worthy favourite in the shape of Dear My Friend, who didn’t do much – albeit at a high level – on turf last season, but he can boast an unbeaten record on an artificial surface, and has won all three of his starts this year following a breathing and gelding operation.
His latest win came from a BHA mark of 107 in a handicap at Lingfield earlier this month, beating the reopposing McLean House by two and a half lengths, with KINGDOM COME only a neck behind the runner-up in third. Dear My Friend had a fair bit in hand that day, but he was always well positioned in a steadily-run race, and I’m willing to take him on with Kingdom Come, who I’m convinced will be a much better horse faced with a straight mile on the all-weather for the first time.
Kingdom Come had the widest draw at Lingfield and, as he can be, was awkward leaving the stalls, finding himself at the rear of the field and failing to settle somewhat in the early stages. Dear My Friend had already kicked for home by the time Kingdom Come got going, but he closed all the way to the line, shaping much better than the bare result.
He has since won over an extended mile at Wolverhampton, where he again wasn’t best away – Rossa Ryan advertised his balancing skills – or best positioned. The gaps opened for him at the right time at Wolverhampton, though, and he won narrowly from Final Voyage but was always doing enough.
Kingdom Come has gone up just 2lb for that success, which leaves him 4lb better off with Dear My Friend, but you can mark his Wolverhampton win up further when taking sectionals into account - he recorded the fastest two-furlong closing sectional (24.27) - and he still looks fairly treated. As mentioned previously, his style of racing, and tendency to be a little slowly away, will lend itself perfectly to the straight mile at Newcastle, and I expect him to give Dear My Friend more to think about this time.
The BetUK All-Weather Easter Classic Middle Distance Handicap looks a cracking renewal and I have the utmost respect for Penzance and connections who are chasing the double bonus having won both of the trial races. However, it is ELEGANT MAN who interests me most given what he has achieved so far in a short period of time.
Looking at him, it is no surprise that he didn’t make his debut until the backend of his three-year-old campaign, as he is a horse with plenty of physical scope and big, long stride, who has left the impression he is still learning on the job the three times he’s been to the track.
Elegant Man attracted support when easily making a winning debut at Dundalk and it was encouraging to see that he was again strong in the market and ran a race full of promise when runner-up to three-time Group 1 winner Rebel’s Romance in a Listed race at Kempton in December. Elegant Man didn’t look out of place at that level, but his inexperience was evident once asked for his effort, before staying on under a hand ride to finish never nearer than at the finish (he had Base Note and Blanchland in behind), and Rebel’s Romance boosted that form when winning a Group 3 at Doha last month.
Elegant Man has since landed the odds in a good-looking minor event back at Dundalk in January where he beat Tyson Fury (who has since won convincingly and goes for the Marathon on this card) comfortably by three and a half lengths. He still looked a little green under pressure on that occasion, but his jockey never had to get too serious with him and he was well on top at the line, leaving the impression he had even more to give.
It is interesting that connections have opted for this race, as the Dubai Carnival was talked about immediately after his latest success, and he is very much bred to take to dirt.
An opening mark of 108 may look a little on the high side to some, but he is far from the finished article, has the physique to carry a big weight, and has improved in chunks with each run. Elegant Man will be well suited by the galloping nature of Newcastle, while the stiff finish will also play to his strengths, and he just appeals as a horse who has a touch of class, and will be plying his trade at a much higher level later in the season.
Preview posted at 1400 GMT on 27/03/24
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