All-Weather racing tips, news and tracker horses
Our man looks over an interesting card at Southwell this evening and nominates two bets in his latest all-weather column
All-Weather Angle Racing tips: Wednesday March 20
1pt e.w. Masqool in the 7.00 Southwell at 18/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4 - Paddy Power, Betfair, William Hill, Coral, Ladbrokes)
1pt win Local Bay in the 7.30 Southwell at 18/1 (General)
1pt win Dumfries in the 8.30 Southwell at 12/1 (General)
A change of scenery this week as Kempton’s usual Wednesday evening slot has been replaced by Southwell which also means a change of surface (Tapeta) and switch to a left-handed track.
It sees the return of Night Raider, who was so impressive when making a winning debut at this track in December. It is rare to see debutants win in the style that he did on the all-weather, tanking through his race and quickly moving clear of his rivals under minimum pressure.
Night Raider is entered in the 2000 Guineas (as short as 20/1), and is expected to defy a penalty, though he will likely face a stern challenge from Cogitate, who beat a useful rival on his debut and started 11/4 joint-favourite for the Acomb Stakes when last seen in August.
The best race at Southwell this evening is the 11-furlong handicap, featuring several in-form and interesting types, and I wasn’t surprised to see Ayyab’s price contract overnight after he was put in around 11/2, which did look generous.
This race has a competitive look to it, though, and with most bookmakers paying four places, it looks a good opportunity to back on each way. The horse which fits the bill is MASQOOL, who is proving incredibly consistent under his apprentice rider Joe Leavy so far this year.
He was unlucky to bump into a couple of well-handicapped types when runner-up at Wolverhampton and Lingfield on both of his starts in January, and he deservedly got his head back in front fitted with first-time cheekpieces at the latter track on his next start, getting first run to some extent in a slowly-run race but always holding on at the finish.
Masqool looked better than ever when following up over the same course and distance a fortnight later, again moving through his race well and having plenty in hand at the finish. He ran another cracker turned out under a penalty at Wolverhampton four days later, looking the likeliest winner when getting a gap in the straight – he traded at 1.3 in-running on Betfair – only to be caught on the line by the fast-finishing Endless Power (favourite for the final race on this card).
He arguably should have finished much closer on his final start over an extended mile back at Wolverhampton last time, encountering trouble when beginning to make headway a furlong out and squeezed up with nowhere to go. Masqool finished with running left hot on the heels of the principals, though, confirming he is still in top form, and he is well worth another chance from the same mark. The step back up in trip will help him and, though this is a deeper race, he is just the sort who will raise his game further in better company. He looks a rock-solid each-way bet.
Another horse I’m interested in is the Tony Carroll-trained LOCAL BAY, whose recent form figures aren’t too inspiring, but he is badly treated on the pick of his efforts, and the return to this venue might spark some life back into him.
He won back-to-back handicaps over this course and distance around this time last year, forging clear of his rivals (which included Bobby Joe Leg) on the first occasion and having no trouble following up under a penalty seven days later.
Local Bay largely held his form well afterwards, beaten only a head in a competitive handicap for the grade at Wolverhampton next time and transferring his good form back to turf where he races from a lower mark, resuming winning ways at Brighton in August.
The wheels came off somewhat after that success, but he ran a very promising race in a handicap which is working out well on his return from 11 months off at Lingfield last month, held up after breaking from the widest stall and moving into contention around a furlong out, and staying on well down the inside (often the place not to be at Lingfield).
His run at Kempton last time is harder to be enthusiastic about, but watching that race back, Local Bay never looked too happy, becoming unbalanced on a couple of occasions under a 5lb claimer who was riding him for the first time. He was also given too much to do that day in a steadily-run race where only the very well-handicapped winner got involved from off the pace.
This race should be run at a stronger pace with the likes of Souffionne, Blackjack and Fox Power, all of whom like to lead or race prominently, in the field. That will suit Local Bay better and, as mentioned previously, he has gone well at this track in the past. At the time of writing he is the outsider of the field and there is enough in his price to make him of interest in a handicap which isn’t as deep as the last three he’s contested.
Looking over the final race and I’m keen to take on Endless Power at the head of the market, given he was doing all over his best work at the finish over an extended nine furlongs at Wolverhampton last time, and drops back to a bare mile now (has stamina in his pedigree).
The one I like at bigger odds is DUMFRIES, who opened his account in impressive fashion over this course and distance this time last year, and both of his best runs have come after a break. He was trained by Marcus Tregoning last year, but changed hands for 12,000 guineas in October, and has joined a yard in Ruth Carr that has had plenty of success with similar types in the past.
She has also made a good start to the year, recording seven winners and her horses are running to form 62.7% of the time. The race he won here last year wasn’t a deep one, but it has produced winners, and Dumfries looked a complete natural on the surface, always travelling well and powering away in the closing stages under a hand ride.
The form of his previous run on an artificial surface at Kempton also reads well. The winner of that contest has won twice again since and has a BHA rating of 91, the runner-up has also won twice since, the latest from a mark of 93, while the fourth, who finished three quarters of a length in front of Dumfries, has gone on to win a Grade 2 and two Grade 1 events in America.
Dumfries remains totally unexposed on the all-weather and the pick of his efforts make him look potentially well treated from a mark of 76. In an open handicap, he is worth chancing at this morning’s prices.
Published at 0905 GMT on 20/03/24
More from Sporting Life
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.
Next Off
Most Followed
MOST READ RACING
