All-Weather racing tips, news and tracker horses
Our man has looked through the card at Kempton this evening and has picked out two bets.
All-Weather Angle betting tips: Wednesday February 7
2pts win Ahlain in 6.30 Kempton at 4/1 (bet365) - 7/2 General also fine
1pt win Greatgadian in 7.00 Kempton at 7/2 (General)
The best race at Kempton this evening is a class 2 handicap over a mile which features only seven runners, but there are several who all arrive in top form and have strong records on the all-weather.
One who has a very interesting line of form is Symbol of Light, who still has few miles on the clock for a five-year-old, and arguably proved better than ever when finishing runner-up to Dear My Friend at Newcastle last month.
That form received a big boost on Sunday when the same horse followed up in a Listed event at Lingfield in grand style, while the third also won next time out. Symbol of Light is just 1 lb higher now and this field on the whole perhaps hasn’t as much depth as the Newcastle race, so he looks a worthy favourite.
A slight concern is that the Julie Camacho yard hasn’t been in rude health since the turn of the year, recording only one winner, and only 33.3% of horses have run to form in that period on Timeform’s figures.
Roger Varian, on the other hand, has started the year in excellent form, operating at a 19% strike rate with 79% of his horses running to form. He has two interesting candidates in this handicap in Dragon Leader and GREATGADIAN.
Dragon Leader has a more unexposed profile having only seen the racetrack four times, but he looked potentially smart when winning his first two starts, both on the all-weather, including over seven furlongs at this course on his debut. He wasn’t disgraced on his sole start on turf in the German 2000 Guineas last year, either, but he ran no sort of race on his recent return and handicap debut at Lingfield. He was never involved on that occasion, but is clearly better than he was able to show there, and it is encouraging that he's back out so quickly given his past record.
However, the latter remains well handicapped on the pick of his form, and has been shaping up well since resuming winning ways at Newcastle in October. He did especially well to finish as close as he did over seven furlongs at Southwell last time, a slow start putting him on the back foot but he moved into the race nicely and was forced to switch for a run when still travelling well early in the straight.
Greatgadian finished his race well to be beaten just three quarters of a length and that performance can be marked up further when taking sectionals into account.
On paper, there isn't much pace in this race, which may result in a muddling race, but Top Secret went on last time, Symbol of Light has made the running in the past, and I also expect Dragon Leader to be ridden differently this time with the hood quickly discarded.
The return to a mile will very much suit Greatgadian and, given he has been left on the same mark of 92, I think he is a fair enough bet against Symbol of Light.
There is one other bet on the card which interests me a lot, too, and that is the James Tate-trained filly AHLAIN in the sole seven-furlong handicap on the card.
She is bred to be useful and produced a promising first effort over six furlongs in a big-field maiden at Newbury in July, finishing midfield but only beaten two and a half lengths, while also showing clear signs of greenness.
Ahlain confirmed the promise of that debut effort when opening her account over this course and distance the following month, relishing the step up to seven furlongs and improving past the eventual third, Gushing Gold, who had finished around two and a bit lengths in front of her at Newbury.
There was plenty to like about the manner in which she knuckled down in the closing stages on that occasion, showing a good level of professionalism and willingness to win on just her second start, and she had a bit in hand at the line for all she only beat the runner-up by a neck. That form received a bit of a boost when Gushing Gold won a competitive nursery at York on her next start from a mark of 87, and she also ran a very good race to finish second in a soft-ground Listed event at Doncaster afterwards.
Ahlain was beaten out of sight on her final start in the Group 3 Prestige Fillies’ Stakes at Goodwood on her final start, but it is very easy to put a line through that run, which came on ground Timeform described as heavy and she clearly had no liking for it at all, while she also ended up in the centre of the track on what was probably the worst of the ground.
It says plenty about the regard in which she is held that connections were happy to pitch her into pattern company so quickly, however, and to me she is potentially well treated from an opening mark of 81 now making her handicap debut after six months off. It is worth noting that she has plenty about her physically, very much the type to make up into a better three-year-old, and the break she has had should have done her the world of good.
There is again the potential for a steady gallop here, but she raced prominently when winning at this course in the summer, so hopefully that won’t be too much of a concern, and she arrives with far more potential than all of her rivals. Furthermore, from the limited number of runners that James Tate has had since the turn of the year, he is operating at a 30% strike rate, so Ahlain represents a yard very much in form.
Also, Tate has an overall strike rate of 21% when teaming up with Clifford Lee, but that record jumps to 33% at Kempton. The 8/1 around last night was clearly wrong, but I'm quite strong on her chance and think she is still worthy of a bet at this mornings prices.
Published at 0912 GMT on 07/02/24
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