Andrew Asquith reckons Duke of Oxford could be one to look out for in the New Year as he also reflects on the sensational Southwell debut for Night Raider.
Exciting prospect unleased at Southwell
There was a striking performance at Southwell last week from the Karl Burke-trained Night Raider, who looked something out of the ordinary when making a winning start over seven furlongs at Southwell.
He had been strong in the betting throughout the day, so clearly a big run was expected, but it isn’t often you see horses win in the manner that he did on the all-weather, looking in a different league to his rivals at every point.
The closing sectional he recorded gives the form extra substance, too, the only horse to run the last three furlongs in sub-35 seconds (comfortably so: 34.20), and doing it all while not coming off the bridle or being pushed out. The overall time of the race was faster than the first division of the same novice, which was won by another promising type who had the benefit of previous experience.
Night Raider has been awarded a Timeform rating of 93p, which marks him out as a smart prospect, and one which connections will have aspirations of winning pattern races with next year – it isn’t uncommon nowadays for horses who start on the all-weather to develop into top-level performers.
There was also some promise in behind him, too, notably from Danielle in third, who is closely related to Ascot Gold Cup winner Courage Mon Ami. She is a different type to Night Raider, bred for much longer trips, and given how green she was in the early stages of the race, it was very encouraging to see her finish off so strongly, making up plenty of ground in the final furlong. Danielle was awarded the Timeform Large P, which identifies her as a horse that is open to considerable improvement next time, and she is very much a filly to follow over longer distances next season.
Looking ahead
Duke of Oxford announced himself as a strong contender for the Marathon on Finals Day when recording his second win over two miles at Kempton a fortnight ago and he will reportedly head to Newcastle on New Year’s Day now for another two-mile handicap – and over the same course and distance as the Marathon.
The handicapper has raised him 5 lb for his latest win, but that looks very fair given the ease in which he travelled through that contest before easily putting the race to bed with a good change of pace entering the final furlong. Duke of Oxford is progressing really well at present, clearly well suited to all-weather racing, and his strong-travelling, hold-up style will lends itself well to the stiffer track at Newcastle; he remains a horse to be positive about in handicaps.
Another horse who is making giant strides and could be one for the Easter Classic on Good Friday is the Mick Appleby-trained Penzance. He is yet another excellent purchase by The Horse Watchers and has won his last two starts over a mile and a quarter at Chelmsford with any amount in hand.
The ease in which he moved clear of some solid and useful rivals in the straight in his latest win last week marked him out as a horse to keep on the right side. The handicapper has raised him 9 lb for that success, which puts him on a mark of 88, and shouldn’t be enough to stop him completing a hat-trick next time.
Rossa Ryan has swiftly moved to the top of the All-Weather Champion Jockey table after recording 14 wins (at the time of writing) in December. He has usurped Billy Loughnane, who now trails by five, and his claims of adding to his All-Weather Apprentice title from last year were dealt a blow when he was hit with a 17-day ban – four of them deferred – for a number of breaches of carless riding. There is still a long way to go, however, and Loughnane will undoubtedly be determined to return stronger than ever in the New Year following this setback.
All-Weather Angle tips: Wednesday December 20
1pt win Top Secret in 7.00 Kempton at 5/1 (Bet365, William Hill, Coral, Ladbrokes)
There is a good handicap over a mile at Kempton this evening where a couple of three-year-olds in Talis Evolvere and Urban Sprawl are towards the head of the market. They finished first and second over the extended mile at Wolverhampton a couple of weeks ago, the former responding well to pressure and coming out on top by a neck. There are both well drawn and seem sure to go well again from their revised marks, but the horse interests me most is TOP SECRET.
He was in great form in three starts at this track just over a year ago, proving no match for the now-smart Mount Athos but going on to win his next two starts over seven furlongs and this course and distance.
It is the form of his latest win over course and distance which stands out, beating Notre Belle Bete by a length, who went on to run some solid races in handicaps before winning the Easter Classic on Good Friday. There was an element of Top Secret being well placed close to the pace in a race which wasn’t run at a strong gallop, but he took a couple of lengths out of the field in the straight and was always doing enough in the closing stages.
He hasn’t managed to win back on turf this year, but he has finished runner-up in a couple of useful handicaps at Newbury and Salisbury and returns to the all-weather just 3 lb above his last winning mark. His draw in stall 1 isn’t much of a concern as he will likely be ridden for a handy position, and the presence of Urban Sprawl to his outside should help as that rival likes to lead or race prominently.
Top Secret will hopefully be able to latch on to him and get a good tow into the race, and he remains a horse unexposed on an artificial surface whose style of running is well-suited to all-weather racing. Top Secret hasn’t run for three months, but he has gone well in the past, and he is worth supporting from a mark he has the ability to exploit.
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