All-Weather racing tips, news and tracker horses

By Andrew Asquith

Horse Racing

Thu March 30, 2023 · 3y ago

Andrew Asquith reckons Ralph Beckett's Verbier looks a horse to follow after an impressive winning debut on Saturday night.

Verbier one to watch for Beckett

Ralph Beckett had last year’s Irish Derby winner Westover run a mighty race when second to the deeply impressive Equinox – who is now the highest-rated turf horse in the world on Timeform ratings – in the Dubai Sheema Classic at Meydan on Saturday, but he also unleashed another exciting prospect at Wolverhampton later that evening.

Verbier was a 380,000 guineas purchase as a yearling and was well supported to make a winning debut in a race which should be viewed in a positive light moving forward. She did well to win in the manner she did given she came from further back than those who filled the frame in a steadily-run race and, though the bare form can’t be rated too highly because of the pace, Verbier overcame inexperience and is worth marking up further when taking sectionals into account.

She was the only horse in the field to run the final two furlongs in under 23 seconds (22.78) and over half a second quicker than the next fastest finisher, earning herself a 20lb Timeform sectional upgrade. That gives the visual impression more substance and given that three of the first four home were all well-bred newcomers also makes the form more appealing. Verbier is bred to excel over middle distances this year and is one to look forward to with the turf season just around the corner – connections are entitled to aim her at some black type races after this.

Moving on to an interesting card at Kempton this evening and there are a few horses who I am interested in. One horse that leaps off the page – and was going to be part of the staking plan before his price collapsed last night – is the James Tate-trained Mount Athos.

He shaped with plenty of promise on his debut at Doncaster last season, briefly looking like giving the odds-on winner – who had plenty of solid form to his name – a real race, but his lack of experience and probably fitness told in the closing stages. He ran to a similar level when finishing fourth at the same track next time in a race which has worked out really well and he has won both of his starts since.

It is his victory over this course and distance when last seen in October which really stands out, though, looking a natural switched to the all-weather for the first time and also proving his opening mark of 84 very lenient indeed. Mount Athos was also well backed and was ridden very positively, travelling with purpose out in front and the manner in which he quickened clear of his rivals entering the final two furlongs marked him out as a horse to be really positive about.

The fact he also beat the well-handicapped runner-up – who had form in some useful handicaps – by five lengths gives you an inclination that he could be better than a handicapper in time, and that form has also been franked since. Tate is also in cracking form at present and his short break since isn’t a concern as he won on the back of a four-month break last time. This looks a good race but Mount Athos easily has the most potential and he is a very interesting runner, but the fancy prices have gone and he is now odds-on!

The two-mile handicap half an hour later is mainly filled with horses who have been in and around the all-weather scene for most of the winter, but bottom-weight NOVEL LEGEND arrives with an unexposed profile and it isn’t hard to imagine him progressing past these on his return to action.

He shaped well on his sole start on the all-weather at Newcastle last year and built on that promise when opening his account over a mile and three quarters at Chester in September. Novel Legend won with a bit up his sleeve that day, given a cracking ride sticking hard to the rail on the home turn, but doing especially well to reel in the second and third who were ridden more further forward at a track where it can be hard to make up ground.

He started favourite for a handicap over two miles at Newmarket when last seen and, though he was unable to defy a 3lb higher mark, he did progress further and had no trouble with the step up in trip. Novel Legend was again ridden patiently and wasn’t able to make up the ground this time at another track where it is hard to do so, but left the impression he has even more to offer, and he is just the type to go on again this year. Trainer James Fanshawe has a good record at Kempton but his strike-rate jumps up to 33% with horses running over this distance and in a race where we know plenty about the rest, he looks a good bet to make a winning return.

The seven-furlong handicap for three-year-olds looks a competitive one, and I was surprised to see KITAI put in at such a big price last night. She showed plenty of ability on her debut, travelling powerfully for a long way and only headed in the final 50 yards, and she shaped similarly next time when beaten only a neck after looking the likeliest winner entering the final furlong – traded at 1.31 in-running on Betfair.

Kitai made the most of a good opportunity when making all of the running and scoring by six and a half lengths at Pontefract on her third start and it is probably best to forgive her latest effort in a listed event at Newmarket on ground which she didn’t appear to handle. It is worth noting that she started the 4/1 co-second favourite on that occasion, so clearly better was expected and she wasn’t given a hard time once her chance had gone.

A strong filly, she is just the type to make up into a better three-year-old, and Andrea Atzeni and Charlie Johnston have a 60% strike-rate when teaming up together (3 from 5) resulting in a level-stakes profit of £16.25. The step up to seven furlongs is a slight question mark given she shows plenty of speed and also has a sharp pedigree, but she wasn’t stopping at Pontefract which has a stiff finish, so it is well worth exploring. There is also little pace in this race, so it may place the emphasis more on speed and, while she has been well backed, I’m still keen to keep her on side.

All-Weather Angle tips: Wednesday 29 March

1pt win Kitai in 7.00 Kempton at 9/2 (BetVictor, Coral, Ladbrokes)

2pt win Novel Legend in 8.00 Kempton at 3/1 (BetVictor, William Hill)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

Preview posted at 0900 BST on 29/03/2023

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