Alex Hammond Racing Blog: Vallis value
Sky Sports Racing's Alex Hammond looks back on some recent key performances ahead of Cheltenham while looking ahead to the weekend's action.
Is Al Dancer now the one to beat in the Sky Bet Supreme Novices’ Hurdle following his Ascot victory last weekend?
He’s a very worthy favourite after a convincing win in the rescheduled Betfair Hurdle that’s for sure. However, he’s not the most straightforward, he can be keen and he wears a hood to keep a lid on his enthusiasm. The Sky Bet Supreme Novices’ Hurdle is the first race of the festival and if you’ve been, you’ll know what the Cheltenham atmosphere is like, it’s electric in that rural cauldron; will he boil over? The same can be said for his rivals of course as they are all freshers with relatively little experience, certainly of occasions like this. At 7/2 and with the race sponsors offering money back as cash on this race if you lose (up to £20) then I think it’s worth finding a slightly better value alternative. No great prizes for finding Fakir D’Oudairies, but I think Joseph O’Brien is set for a decent festival and this horse has done little wrong since joining his trainer from France. So much so that he has been snapped up by leading owner JP McManus. He will be hardy having begun his career in France (I’m learning plenty about the French racing scene thanks to Sky Sports Racing expert Lauren Barbarin), which gives him the edge over some of the challengers and at 5/1 with Sky Bet, he looks the one to be on.
How impressed were you with Laurina in midweek and do you regard her as a leading Unibet Champion Hurdle contender?
She still a bit of an unknown quantity isn’t she in comparison to Buveur D’Air and Apple’s Jade. She has won all six starts since joining Willie Mullins and has swept aside some smart horses. What she hasn’t done (yet) is beat anything with the class of the aforementioned duo. That doesn’t mean she isn’t capable of doing so, but we haven’t got the evidence just yet. If you take the 7/2 about Laurina, you are backing her on potential, rather than solid form and I’m slightly dubious about doing that. Buveur D’Air will be a tough nut to crack, but of the leading ladies, I think Apple’s Jade is the one to do it; this year at least. She’s 2/1 with Sky Bet for the day one feature.
Where should we be looking for a good weekend wager, with several key races at Kempton on Saturday.
Well, I’m going to start away from Kempton because I fancy a couple in Newcastle’s Eider Chase on Saturday. The ground is nowhere near as challenging as it can be for this race with clerk of the course James Armstrong reporting that it is currently good to soft, soft in places. Nicky Richards won the Veterans’ Chase at Doncaster on Wednesday, so his horses appear to have come out of the enforced equine influenza break none the worse. Last year’s winner Baywing is his representative once again in this extended 4 mile handicap chase and despite running off a 7lb higher mark than when winning last year, I hope he can run well. The one proviso is that he relishes testing ground, so it may not be quite soft enough for him. With that in mind, Kimberlite Candy is another I’d like to keep on side and in a race this competitive I think having two horses running for us is wise. Ledbury trainer Tom Lacey has his team in outstanding form (45% strike rate on Friday morning) and this horse ran very well at Sandown last time out over 3 miles, which is the longest trip he has run over to date. However, he was staying on stoutly there and looked to be crying out for further. He looks like the type who will pop up in one of these competitive handicaps before long and with his team in such hot form, Saturday’s race could be his day. He seems versatile with regards the ground. Both horses will be decent prices for each way purposes and you’ll see the race live on Sky Sports Racing.
Obviously we’ll be keeping a close eye on Angels Breath in the Dovecote Novices’ Hurdle at Kempton as he makes his final preparations for the Sky Bet Supreme Novices’ Hurdle (6/1 for the Cheltenham race). I just think the lack of experience will count against him at Cheltenham, but you’d like to see him win here to have any chance at the festival.
The 888.com Handicap Chase at Kempton is the feature at the Sunbury track and Glen Rocco heads the market at 3/1 with Sky Bet. He has run well on both his starts at this track and is unexposed at the 3 mile trip, but is pretty short for a competitive handicap. Didero Vallis is well entered up at the Cheltenham festival and at 12/1 with Sky Bet looks my each way bet. He left Willie Mullins in the Autumn and joined Venetia Williams who sent him straight over fences and he’s now two from three over the larger obstacles. He’s unproven at the trip, but I hope he can stay it and with his confidence high this likeable horse has a good chance of running into the places on decent ground, which he has won on before.
It’s Winter Derby day at Lingfield on Saturday and there is obviously no value to be had in backing the favourite Wissahickon as he’s 1/3 favourite to follow up his win in the trial. However, the Hever Sprint Stakes is more competitive and I like Gorgeous Noora in this; a 100/30 shot with Sky Bet. She has run well in three starts since joining Archie Watson having been bought for 200,000 guineas at the December Mares’ Sales by Tweenhills Stud from Luca Cumani’s yard. There was certainly no disgrace in finishing 2nd to Kachy in the Listed Cleves Stakes over 6 furlongs at this track last time out and a listed win on Saturday would enhance her value as a broodmare no end. Incidentally, she will be covered by Aussie stallion Zoustar at Tweenhills; I was lucky enough to see him this week, he’s a beast! I don’t think the drop back to 5 furlongs will inconvenience her and although she’s not well in at the weights with favourite Encore D’Or, I hope she wins.
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