Alex Hammond racing tips for Epsom Derby weekend

Save your Oaks outsiders for another day

There are certain things in life that don’t lie: mirrors, scales, young children, and the clock. With this in mind Savethelastdance deserves her position as clear favourite (5/6 with Sky Bet) for the Betfred Oaks.

I was lucky enough to be at Chester when Aidan O’Brien’s filly pulverised her opposition in the Cheshire Oaks in winning by 22 lengths. Those trying to find chinks in her armour have suggested that margin of victory was down to the testing ground conditions at Chester and the quality of the opposition.

However, the time of her last two furlongs was breath-taking, she completed the last quarter of a mile faster than the sprinters on the same card.

She’s a daughter of the dominant stallion Galileo, out of a mare with a quirky Oaks history. Daddys Lil Darling was set to run in Enable’s Oaks but was totally rattled by the thunderstorm beforehand. She bolted on the way to post which resulted in Olivier Peslier having to bail out of the saddle. She was subsequently withdrawn.

What is encouraging about that mare though was her ability to act on fast ground; in fact, most ground came alike to her. Therefore, Savethelastdance should be equally effective on the faster ground she will experience at Epsom, despite never racing on anything as quick in her three races to date. I can’t see beyond her.

Classic double on the cards for Ballydoyle

Whilst I feel the Oaks is cut and dried, the Betfred Derby picture is murkier.

If you’d told me after the Futurity Trophy at Doncaster back in October that I was considering backing anything other than Auguste Rodin for the Derby, I’d have laughed. I fell in love with the colt that day. He was uncomplicated, classy, and hugely talented.

He looked like a Triple Crown contender for Aidan O’Brien and was in the right hands to try to fulfil that challenge. The 2000 Guineas was always going to be the hardest leg to win with doubts over the speed he possesses to win a classic over a mile.

However, he totally checked out and beat only two colts at Newmarket. Back to the drawing board for O’Brien then.

The vibes in the run up to Epsom have been positive and whilst we should expect little else from O’Brien, it’s fair to say they aren’t rocking up hoping for the best. The 3/1 on offer from Sky Bet looked unlikely too, so it’s tempting not to jump ship.

The only colt who has made me waver is Passenger who was supplemented into the race earlier this week. Sir Michael Stoute knows a Derby horse when he sees one, and I thought this little colt showed great promise in the Dante. He's an 11/2 shot with Sky Bet.

There are likely to be arrests on Saturday (more on that shortly) but will there be the right kind of Arrest for Frankie Dettori in his final Derby? He’s also 11/2 and will be popular with the charismatic Italian on board. John Gosden didn’t sound particularly confident before the Chester Vase, but he came through that with flying colours.

Military Order is bidding to emulate his full-brother Adayar, who won the Derby two years ago. The colt who finished second to him in the Lingfield Derby Trial, Waipiro, may be worth an each way play at 14/1, as he didn’t get the same smooth run though as the winner at Lingfield.

Sky Bet are offering 7/1 for Savethelastdance and Auguste Rodin to both win and that looks tempting.

Go West in tricky Cup contest

Away from the two classics I have a few other fancies over the two-day festival.

The first race on Friday is the British EBF 40th Anniversary Woodcote Stakes. Richard Hannon has a good record in this and has two rolls of the dice this year. Both colts have a penalty to carry but I don’t think that will stop Haatem, who hacked up at Bath last time out. Providing he handles the cambers of Epsom; I think he’ll take all the beating. He’s 3/1 favourite at the time of writing.

Westover is back at Epsom in the Dahlbury Coronation Cup after last year’s Derby defeat for Ralph Beckett and Rob Hornby. He ran with huge credit in the Longines Dubai Sheema Classic on his return, beating everything bar Japanese star Equinox. Hopefully he’s grown up as a four-year-old and will be slightly more rideable for his Group 1 winning jockey.

Westover is 9/4 favourite, ahead of last year’s unlucky Oaks second Emily Upjohn, who makes her reappearance here and is 11/4. Tunnes is intriguing for German trainer Peter Schiergen. I don’t think the ground will be ideal for him which may make life difficult, despite having some smart form. I’m just about siding with Westover.

Best of the rest on Derby day

On Derby day I’m hoping to kick off with a winner. Roger Varian’s Kolsai is 3/1 second favourite to win the Betfred Diomed Stakes. He is unexposed having run just four times in his life and there should be more to come. As a three-year-old he gets a 12lbs weight for age allowance and that gives him a strong chance of beating his elders.

The Aston Martin “Dash” Handicap is usually a fun puzzle to try to solve. Sky Bet are paying seven places rather than four, which gives us some scope to find something to fill one of those places.

Understandably due to its competitive nature, this hasn’t been a great race for favourite backers in recent years. Fellow columnist Richard Fahey pointed us in the direction of a nice winner at Ripon in the week when his bullish comments about Pretty Crystal saw the filly come home a well backed winner.

He has snapped up Oisin Murphy to ride Vintage Clarets in the Dash and another positive for his chance is his high draw in 19 of 20. That puts him next door to prominent racer, and possible favourite, Live In The Moment, so all good on that score. At 12/1 I’m happy to have him as my each-way play and I’ll be disappointed if he can’t finish in the first seven under his red-hot rider, who comes into the weekend off the back of a treble at Yarmouth on Thursday.

Standing up for racing...

Finally, a cursory mention of the fanatics from Animal Rising.

It pains me to give them even more publicity given their fantastical view of the world, but sadly they are determined to disrupt the Derby on Saturday and therefore can’t be ignored. The insanity of the message they are trying to spread means they no longer deserve the respect of anyone forced to listen to their hare-brained ideas.

I don’t need to outline how misguided their ideology of rewilding 70% of farmland and letting domesticated animals fend for themselves is. So, let’s put aside the grim side of desperate, injured and hungry animals roaming across the land, the death and destruction of the ecosystem and a lack of food production to feed the nation.

Consider this. Now I don’t know about you, but there are regular outbursts on local Facebook groups if anyone hasn’t “picked up” after their dog on walks. Can you imagine the consequences of loosing your pets onto the street?! Animal Rising need a long hard look in that aforementioned mirror because they talk a lot of ****.

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