Alex Hammond Cheltenham Tips

The festival is finally upon us after the endless noise for months on end. We’ve had preview nights, vlogs, pods, blogs, and the rumour-mill has been in overdrive. Here’s one final look ahead to the week to add to all the information you will have inevitably taken on board so far. I’ll try to keep it concise...

TUESDAY

SKY BET SUPREME NOVICES’ HURDLE

With Ballyburn heading elsewhere I think this can go the way of the only horse to have beaten him. The Gordon Elliott trained Firefox got the better of Ballyburn in a Fairyhouse maiden hurdle at the beginning of December and despite his only subsequent run ending in defeat, I think he can bounce back. With Sky Bet offering money back as cash if you lose, I think it’s worth taking on the horses above him in the market. He’s a 5/1 shot.

MY PENSION EXPERT ARKLE CHALLENGE TROPHY NOVICES’ CHASE

Master Chewy is my pick here and he still appeals at 11/1 to run into the frame. The Nigel Twiston-Davies trained dual chase winner has the right tools to run a big race. He relishes a good gallop, something he’s guaranteed to get at Cheltenham. Two starts back he beat fierce front runner Nickle Back in a Kempton grade 2 with the runner-up franking the form at the highest level subsequently. He finished second to Elixir Du Nutz prior to that at Newbury, which gives him a line through Jonbon. Not bad form overall for a novice.

ULTIMA HANDICAP CHASE

This is my heart ruling my head, but I’ve been a fan of Victtorino since his win at Ascot in early November. He’s disappointed the last twice, but I think he has a big performance in him and on soft ground over three-miles plus, he gets his conditions. At 16s with Sky Bet he can run for me one more time, particularly with Venetia Williams’ team back in form of late.

UNIBET CHAMPION HURDLE

What would constitute a bad week for Willie Mullins? He’s 1/12 favourite to be leading trainer across the week, so that’s a non-starter. He’s even money to have over 9 winners and 16/1 to saddle less than 6. There are various prices for the in-betweens too. If he sends out 11 winners, he will surpass the tally of 10 in 2022, a quite remarkable prospect. Speaking of constitute, or more accurately, Constitution Hill, Nicky Henderson’s festival was diminished before it even began with the news that his reigning Champion Hurdler would not be defending his title. So, if Willie Mullins isn’t on the scoresheet already, then State Man has a strong chance of changing that. He’s priced accordingly and is 1/3 fav.

CLOSE BROTHERS MARES’ HURDLE

Lossiemouth is the hot favourite for this for Willie Mullins but I’m willing to take a chance on her stablemate Ashroe Diamond at the prices as she’s 5/1 as opposed to 4/6 for the former.

BOODLES JUVENILE HANDICAP HURDLE

I’ve got a longshot for you here in the shape of the Martin Brassil trained Ose Partir. He’s now 11/1 but that could look like value if he can translate some of his flat form in France to this game. His run when finishing second to Prince de Paname on the all-weather at Chantilly in January 2023 stacks up well and he was subsequently bought to go hurdling. He’s had four runs for his new connections, and he shaped well on debut. This will be his handicap debut and on his flat ability a mark of 126 may underestimate him.

MAUREEN MULLINS NATIONAL HUNT CHASE

Embassy Gardens is my best bet on day one. He reminds me very much of Stattler who won this in 2022. Trainer Willie Mullins knows what it takes to win this and as he has so much talent at his disposal this horse takes the easier option at Cheltenham with this race, rather than the former RSA (now the Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase). He’s 2/1 joint favourite with Corbetts Cross. He could well be a Gold Cup horse in 2025.

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WEDNESDAY

GALLAGHER NOVICES’ HURDLE

This is all about Ballyburn now. He looks the real deal. When he won at the Dublin Racing Festival, he was quicker than State Man that same afternoon. He’s already won over 2 ½ miles and the only thing not to like about him is his price; 1/2 favourite. His stablemate Ile Atlantique is second fav at 4/1 and he probably has more ability than he’s shown. This step up in trip should suit him but he didn’t ought to be beating the favourite on all known form.

BROWN ADVISORY NOVICES’ CHASE

My best bet for day two runs in this. Last year’s Champion Bumper runner up Fact To File has been a revelation since going straight over fences this season. He has justified that bold move, and even though he was left to come home alone at the Dublin Racing Festival when Gaelic Warrior departed, the winning time was impressive. He’s 10/11 favourite with Sky Bet.

CORAL CUP HANDICAP HURDLE

Sa Majeste is favourite here for Mullins and owner JP McManus. It’s clear why he’s 5/1 favourite as he has noteworthy form when beating Noble Yeats over 2 ½ miles at Limerick over Christmas and he makes his handicap debut in this off 143.

However, I’m going to take a chance at the prices on Doddiethegreat. The step back up in trip will suit after staying on to be fourth in Betfair Hurdle last time out off same mark he runs off on Wednesday. He has made a remarkable come back from significant injury this season and it would be a wonderful story if he were to win here.

I wouldn’t totally rule out a good run from 16/1 shot Shanbally Kid either, and with Sky Bet paying 8 places rather than 4 that appeals. He beat Monty’s Star (heading for the grade 1 Brown Advisory) in a maiden hurdle last year and can be excused his run in the Albert Bartlett last year as he didn’t stay the trip. The drop back to this trip will suit and the British handicapper may have taken a chance off 134.

CHAMPION CHASE

El Fabiolo is the 1/2 favourite in this for Willie Mullins and it’s clear why. He’s unbeaten over fences and beat the reopposing Jonbon in last year’s Arkle. He’s mighty short though and the revitalised Edwardstone holds some appeal at 7/1. He’s the 2022 Arkle winner and a switch to front running tactics suited him well at Newbury in the Game Spirit. He could unsettle the top two with his extensive experience if he can dominate in this.

JOHNNY HENDERSON GRAND ANNUAL HANDICAP CHASE

Libberty Hunter is a horse I like, and it appears I’m not alone as he’s 6/1 second favourite. He is unlucky not to be unbeaten in his three chasing starts because he fell on his debut over fences at Chepstow in November. He’s won both starts since, including when beating Matata at Cheltenham on New Year’s Day. He’ll relish soft ground.

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THURSDAY

TURNERS NOVICES’ CHASE

This should be a cracking contest with some strong British contenders taking on the big names from Ireland. I think it can go the way of one of the Brits here with the Dan Skelton trained Grey Dawning. He’s a solid proposition having gone from strength to strength over fences. He’s had the four starts in this sphere, so enough experience to help him out, but still has improvement to come. He’s 9/4 to win with Sky Bet.

PERTEMPS HANDICAP HURDLE

Icare Allen is the one I like in the Pertemps for Willie Mullins and JP McManus. This horse was third in a qualifier at Aintree in November off a mark of 142 and has been kept under wraps since then. He goes here off 142 and that looks attractive when you consider he finished fourth in the 2022 Triumph Hurdle to Vauban, so he has good festival form. He’s 7/1 at the time of writing.

RYANAIR CHASE

My best bet of day three is Conflated, although he’s a touch shorter than I’d hoped for at 7/1. The Ryanair is either a race for a superstar over this intermediate trip, or more like a Grade 2, and I think it falls into the latter category this time round. Conflated has been coming up against top notch performers Galopin des Champs and Gerri Colombe all at top level recently and he won’t face anything like that here. He’s also been running over three-miles, which stretches him at the highest level. His festival form stacks up well in the context of this race and he looks like the best horse in this race.

PADDY POWER STAYERS’ HURDLE

The market for the Stayers is headed by Teahupoo at 7/4 who has another crack at this title having been beaten favourite when third to stablemate Sire Du Berlais in this last year. However, at the age of 7 he should be now in his staying prime. Unlike 12yo Sire Du Berlais who is back for more. He returned after almost 10 months off over an inadequate trip at Navan last month and he’s and entitled to improve. He was 33/1 when beating Dashel Drasher in this last year and he’s 14s this time round. As a veteran he’ll be in good company in this race. Paisley Park, Dashel Drasher and even Monkfish all fall into that category. You can’t rule out any of them but particularly Monkfish after his win in the Galmoy at Gowran Park at the end of January. He’s a 12/1 shot. I would love to see Crambo win for Fergal O’Brien, who is looking for a first festival winner. This horse has only run twice over 3-miles and there should be more to come. He’s 5/1 second favourite with Sky Bet.

TRUSTATRADER PLATE HANDICAP CHASE

I was going to be a follower of Theatre Man whether he ran in this or the Ultima. His second place in the Timeform Novices’ Chase at Cheltenham on trials day is significant. It’s a notable race for novice chasers and it generally works out well in subsequent Graded contests. So, he runs in a handicap, and he runs in a handicap off a mark of 137. His trainer Richard Bandy knows what he’s doing, and I hope he pulls it off. The horse is a 5/1 shot.

RYANAIR MARES’ NOVICES’ HURDLE

I mentioned that Fergal O’Brien was seeking his first festival winner. Well, if he doesn’t achieve that with Crambo in the Stayers’ Hurdle, I hope he can win one with Dysart Enos in this Mares’ Novices’ Hurde. He has taken the cautious route with this mare in low key races, but she’s been bossing those. As a result, she gets weight off the top two in the market, Brighterdaysahead (Gordon Elliott) and Jade De Grugy (Wilie Mullins), which puts her in with a real shout here. She’s a 7/2 shot.

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FRIDAY

JCB TRIUMPH HURDLE

There are often pre-Cheltenham rumblings about one or more of the festival hot pots in the run up to the meeting and this year is no different with negative vibes around Triumph Hurdle favourite Sir Gino. Nicky Henderson posted a clip of him on X on the gallops in reaction to that, which may have hopefully dispelled any negative chat. It hasn’t put me off anyway, as he looked awesome when winning on trials day, achieving a closing sectional faster than Lossiemouth produced on the same card; and it was only his third lifetime start and just his second in the UK. He’s even money favourite at the time of writing and that looks very tempting to me.

ALBERT BARTLETT NOVICES’ HURDLE

A horse that could have the necessary qualities to win a 3-mile Grade 1 novices’ hurdle at the Cheltenham festival is Gordon Elliott’s My Trump Card. He might not be the sexy horse of the race, but he’s looked more powerful the further in trip he’s gone. He’s 20/1 at the time of writing and that looks like each way value to me. He won a two and a half mile maiden hurdle at Navan last time out in a time that puts him bang in here for this type of stamina test. Gordon Elliott had mentioned he may declare him to run in cheekpieces and if he did that would strengthen my conviction.

BOODLES CHELTENHAM GOLD CUP

I’ve made no secret that I’ve backed L’Homme Presse ante-post at 20s. I’m happy with that, and he’s still a tempting 12/1 at the time of writing. He has come back from injury retaining all his ability and that’s despite not having circumstances to suit. You can’t be too disappointed with his Ascot run last time out as there aren’t many horses that would have caught Pic D’Orhy that day. His trainer Venetia Williams wasn’t in the best form when he won round Lingfield and was second at Ascot, but she has bounced back to form of late.

Reigning champ Galop Des Champs is not yet in the Kauto Star/Denman category, and his jumping isn’t always foot perfect, so I’m happy to take him on as 5/4 favourite.

Fastorslow has finished ahead of the favourite twice already too. As for Shishkin, he’s classy but can he be trusted?

MRS PADDY POWER MARES’ CHASE

My best bet on day four is the Willie Mullins trained Dinoblue in the Mares’ Chase. It’s possible she would have been capable of finishing placed in a Champion Chase given the level of form she has produced this season. She has been running against males and more than holding her own, including a Grade 1 win at Leopardstown over Christmas. She’s Sky Bet’s even money favourite.

CLICK HERE TO PLACE YOUR BETS ON THE CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL

Published at 1426 GMT on 11/03/24

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