Aintree betting tips: Mark Howard Grand National preview
Top analyst Mark Howard with the horses on his radar for the Randox Grand National Festival at Aintree next week.
Following a lean spell in March with only 2 winners from 31 runners, including 0 from 16 at the Cheltenham Festival, Nicky Henderson is likely to be approaching Aintree with some trepidation but the head of Seven Barrows has entered a whole host of his stars, including Sir Gino (4yo Anniversary Hurdle) and SHISHKIN on day one.
The latter will be bidding to defend his crown in the Aintree Bowl (2.55), a contest five horses have won twice over the years. On the plus side, the ten year old is fresh (61 days) having not been sighted since winning the Grade 2 Denman Chase at Newbury in February by four and a quarter lengths. Prior to that, the six times Grade 1 winner was desperately unfortunate not to add the King George at Kempton to his glittering CV when unseating his rider shortly after the second last when seemingly in control. A length and a half winner of this race last year, he is unbeaten at the track (won the Maghull NC in 2021) and his record over 2m 7f plus is 311U1. Provided back to full health, the ex-pointer has every chance of lower the colours of a strong Irish challenge, including the likely favourite and Gold Cup runner-up Gerri Colombe.
The unbeaten chaser ETALON holds an entry in the Close Brothers Red Rum Chase on Thursday (4.40) but Dan Skelton hasn’t ruled out the possibility of the 142 rated novice having a crack at the Grade 1 Maghull Novices’ Chase 48 hours later (5.00).
A seven-year-old by Sholokhov who reached a mark of 120 over timber last season, he has proved a different proposition since sent over fences winning three times in less than two months. He has gained handicap wins at Newbury, Warwick and Sandown by an aggregate of nearly 58 lengths, including when beating the useful Gunsight Ridge at the Esher track in February off a rating of 131. A quick, accurate jumper, the handicap on the first afternoon looks tailormade for the progressive young chaser but it would be significant if his connections chose to have a go at the more prestigious prize on National day. Either way, he is a smart horse going places. His four career wins have been gained on soft ground.
Harry Fry has trained some smart mares during his career, including Graded winners Bitofapuzzle, Jessber’s Dream and Love Envoi. Paul Nicholls’ former assistant will be looking forward to running ANNO POWER in the concluding Goffs Nickel Coin Mares’ bumper on Thursday (5.15). The five year old was previously in training with Colin Bowe in Ireland before being bought unraced. A free going filly, she travelled strongly on her debut in a bumper at Exeter (Good/Soft) against geldings in November before getting outstayed late on by Dunskay (won again since).
Ten lengths clear of the third, she went one better next time at Ascot (Good/Soft) in February, producing a sparkling turn of foot to settle the issue late on. Sporting a hood and anchored at the back of the field, she still had plenty on her plate turning for home before quickening up to lead with half a furlong to go. A two and three quarters of a length winner from Nala The Lioness, she was conceding twelve pounds to Karl Burke’s runner-up. Set aside since (54 days), the daughter of Affinisea is a half-sister to the smart Lecky Watson who was fourth in the Cheltenham Festival bumper last season. Provided she doesn’t over race early on, she is a major threat and the track will play to her strengths.
Paul Nicholls sent out Hacker Des Places to win the conditional jockeys’ handicap hurdle on Friday (5.15) in 2022 and 12 months ago, Blueking D’Oroux finished second in the two miles event. That pair were rated 133 and 134 respectively and the champion trainer is set to be represented this time around by the 130 rated AFADIL. A four times winner over timber, he is six pounds higher than when winning the Scottish County Hurdle at Musselburgh in February. An excellent fifth in the County Hurdle at Cheltenham last time, he was only beaten four and a half lengths and the handicapper has left his mark alone. A winner at Ayr last spring, he is at his best on flat tracks (1161331) and Freddie Gingell (315) retains the mount. The ground at Cheltenham was heavy but he handles good to soft, too.
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As for the big one on Saturday, the Randox Grand National itself (4.00), PANDA BOY may have only won one of his nine races over fences but the eight year old appears to have an ideal profile otherwise. His trainer Martin Brassil won it with Numbersixvalverde in 2006 and this grey son of Valirann has been campaigned with the race in mind all season. Fifth in the Irish National off 140 as a novice last season, he is five pounds better off with I Am Maximus.
Placed in the Paddy Power Chase at Leopardstown (wore cheekpieces) for a second time in December off 140, he stayed on well behind the aforementioned Meetingofthewaters and is now eleven pounds better off. He completed his preparation with another eyecatching performance when two and a quarter lengths fourth in a Listed handicap hurdle at the DRF at Leopardstown (3m) in February. Off since (70 days), his record in the spring is 17501F5 with his form figures in field sizes of 15 runners plus 1791003524. Trained by a master, he handles good and soft ground and could be open to more improvement over this longer trip (yet to race beyond 3m 5f). Irish National winning jockey J.J.Slevin (100143F4424) will do the steering and, granted luck in running, he has excellent claims.
- Mark Howard’s One Jump Ahead Aintree Grand National preview will be published on Tuesday 9th April and includes an interview with dual National winning trainer Lucinda Russell. Priced at £8, it is available to purchase via www.mhpublications
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