We take a look at the chances of Aidan O’Brien breaking his own record for Group 1 winners in a calendar year with his Del Mar favourites in the spotlight.
Aidan O’Brien needs just four more top-level winners this year to break his own world record for the number of Group/Grade 1 winners for a trainer in a calendar year that he set with 28 in 2017 when he surpassed Bobby Frankel’s previous record (25, set in 2003).
The Japan Cup (November 30) and Hong Kong International Races (December 14) offer O’Brien his final chances of top-level glory this year with Minnie Hauk and Los Angeles both possibles for those meetings, but he could do it as early as this weekend considering the quality of his Breeders’ Cup squad.
Indeed, he has four short-priced favourites amongst his team for the action in Del Mar on Friday and Saturday, as well as chances from those at longer odds, and we asked our form expert Ben Linfoot to assess his market leaders in their respective assignments.
GSTAAD – Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (Saturday 00.25 GMT)
Getting a Group 1 win out of Gstaad at two has become crucial towards O’Brien’s tilt at breaking his own world record. So far the son of Starspangledbanner is 0/3 at the top-level, but he was beaten by the combined distance of a length in those assignments after narrow losses in the Prix Morny, National Stakes and Dewhurst. It’s a little concerning he keeps on coming out second best in tight finishes but a mile on this speed track could be perfect for him.
Verdict: PLAY. Last year Henri Matisse pounced fast and late from the widest draw in 12 and this year Gstaad can do something similar from stall 14. You wouldn’t pick that starting berth, but it forces Christophe Soumillon’s hand as he’ll have to play his cards late and that might just be the ideal scenario for this horse to finally get his head in front in a Grade 1. The one to beat looks to be Outfielder from stall three for Wesley Ward and Amo Racing, but the son of Speightstown had no answer to Gstaad’s finishing kick in the Morny and it could be a case of same again here with O’Brien’s charge swooping for the win in the final furlong.
MINNIE HAUK – Breeders’ Cup Turf (Saturday 21.41 GMT)
Cheshire, Epsom, Irish and Yorkshire Oaks winner Minnie Hauk went some way to proving herself amongst the best around over 1m4f when she took on the colts for the first time in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe where she was beaten only by Daryz after a tight tussle. That was on softer ground, but she’s versatile when it comes to conditions and the way she pounded down the Knavesmire on fast turf in the Yorkshire Oaks suggests she’ll be just fine on the surface at Del Mar. It’s a good race, though.
Verdict: LAY. Getting the age and sex allowances gives Minnie Hauk (Evens) a good chance but she looks short enough considering the opposition here. Both Rebel’s Romance (11/4) and Goliath (9/1) are well capable of reaching the kind of level of form Minnie Hauk achieved at Longchamp and they come into this slightly fresher and better drawn in stalls one and two, respectively, as well. Minnie Hauk (stall eight) is tough and I’m sure if she gets beat she’ll go down with a fight, but at the prices I’d be happy to take her on.
Aidan’s other chances
We’ve already mentioned that if it’s not True Love for Aidan in the Juvenile Turf Sprint it could well be Brussels or Mission Central, so two or three Breeders’ Cup winners, at least, are anticipated for the Ballydoyle handler. Throw in The Lion In Winter in the Breeders’ Cup Mile and Bedtime Story in the Filly & Mare Turf and he could conceivably equal or even break his record this weekend, with Japan and Hong Kong still to come. The magic number of 29 looks very much on.
TRUE LOVE – Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint (Friday 21.45 GMT)
True Love has already had a highly successful juvenile campaign, winning at Royal Ascot in the Group 2 Queen Mary, the Curragh in the Group 2 Railway Stakes and then at Newmarket in the Group 1 Cheveley Park. After that success she could easily have stepped up in trip for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies’ Turf, but with stablemate Precise scheduled for the mile race True Love sticks to sprinting duties.
Verdict: LAY. This could be a bit of a culture shock for True Love who is used to racing over six furlongs and finishing strongly over that distance. Stall nine does not help matters on the ultra-tight Del Mar track over five furlongs and she looks vulnerable to something nippier to her inside. That’s not to say O’Brien won’t win the race given he has Brussels (stall one) and Mission Central (stall seven) to call upon as well.
PRECISE – Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (Friday 23.05 GMT)
Precise is improving fast and after being narrowly beaten at Fairyhouse on debut she has reeled off four successive wins, culminating in Group 1 glory in the Moyglare and Fillies’ Mile at the Curragh and Newmarket, respectively. Her wide-margin Fillies’ Mile success makes her the highest-rated juvenile filly in Europe on Timeform figures and she sets a high standard as she bids to follow in the hoofprints of Meditate and Lake Victoria who have won this race in two of the last three years.
Verdict: PLAY. This Starspangledbanner filly looks to have a serious class edge over the field and the one obvious sticking point is her draw in 13. The good news is she was dropped out in the Fillies’ Mile and while that was in a very different scenario on a straight track it at least gives Christophe Soumillon confidence that he’ll be able to make a beeline for the inside rail in the rear before easing her into the contest. If she’s on her A-game I think she can scythe through the field and win. If one gives her a race due in part to track position it could well be Joseph O’Brien’s Queen Of Hawaii (stall 2).
Aidan’s Group 1 winners in 2025 (25)
- Pierre Bonnard October 26 – Criterium de Saint-Cloud
- Puerto Rico October 26 – Criterium International
- Hawk Mountain October 25 – William Hill Futurity Stakes
- Precise October 10 – bet365 Fillies’ Mile
- Puerto Rico October 5 – Qatar Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere
- Diamond Necklace October 5 – Qatar Prix Marcel Boussac
- True Love September 27 – Tattersalls Sceptre Sessions Cheveley Park Stakes
- Precise September 14 – Moygalre Stud Stakes
- Delacroix September 13 – Royal Bahrain Irish Champion Stakes
- Scandinavia September 13 – Betfred St Leger Stakes
- Minnie Hauk August 21 – Pertemps Network Yorkshire Oaks
- Diego Velazquez August 17 – The Aga Khan Studs Prix Jacques Le Marois
- Whirl July 31 – Qatar Nassau Stakes
- Scandinavia July 29 – Al Shaqab Goodwood Cup
- Minnie Hauk July 19 – Juddmonte Irish Oaks
- Delacroix July 5 – Coral-Eclipse
- Lambourn June 29 – Dubai Duty Free Irish Derby
- Whirl June 28 – Paddy Power Pretty Polly Stakes
- Lambourn June 7 – Betfred Derby
- Minnie Hauk June 6 – Betfred Oaks
- Jan Brueghel June 6 – Betfred Coronation Cup
- Camille Pissarro June 1 – Qatar Prix du Jockey Club
- Lake Victoria May 25 – Tattersalls Irish 1,000 Guineas
- Los Angeles May 25 – Tattersalls Gold Cup
- Henri Matisse May 11 – Poule d’Essai des Poulains
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