Our Matt Brocklebank doesn’t ask for much this Christmas – but he’s got half a dozen wishes he’d like to see play out over the festive period.
1. The King George winner is a genuine Gold Cup horse
Take nothing away from the Silviniaco Contis and Clan Des Obeauxs of this world but I remain something of a traditionalist around this time of year and, in addition to baulking at the idea of Yorkshire puddings on a Christmas dinnerplate, very much like my Kempton winner on Boxing Day to be thought well capable of following up at Cheltenham in March.
You’ve got to go back to Long Run – a two-time King George winner – for the last one to do the double in the same season in 2010/11 and I shudder at the thought of Bravemansgame winning well this Christmas and Paul Nicholls’ mind racing ahead to the Bowl at Aintree as the principal spring target.
That notion might seem a bit far-fetched given Bravemansgame ran perfectly well when third in the Ballymore a couple of years ago and was all set to contest the Brown Advisory before the heavy rain arrived last spring, but nobody seems certain he’ll be ideally suited to three and a quarter miles around Prestbury Park.
With all due respect to Envoi Allen, the favourite’s stablemates Frodon and Hitman, plus one of my own long-range Value Bet fancies Eldorado Allen, the only other one who could pull off the double this year is surely L’Homme Presse.
If anything, he looks more a Gold Cup horse than a King George horse and connections are going to leave it as late as possible to see if sufficient rain arrives at Kempton for him to take his chance, but if he runs - and does the business - this Boxing Day then there’s no question it’ll be all systems go for Cheltenham, where L’Homme Presse is unbeaten in two visits.
That prospect should be high on the wish-list of most jumps fans.
2. The Sky Bet Supreme market gets a proper shake-up
It’s still December and Facile Vega is no bigger than 5/4 for the Sky Bet Supreme Novices’ Hurdle which is no use to anyone really is it? Apart from those lucky punters who are on at the massive price of 7/2 or whatever he was back in the spring...
In all seriousness, this incredibly well-bred horse could clearly be the next big thing to emerge from Closutton, which is quite the tag to carry, and his maiden hurdle win at Fairyhouse was in effect a one-horse race - 15 supposed rivals at the start line reduced to the role of mere onlookers soon after halfway.
The sky is the limit at this stage, though I wonder – given the pedigree – if he’s slightly more likely to be lining up in the Ballymore than the Supreme when the music stops in this year’s game of Mullins Musical Targets leading up to the Festival.
Either way, the Supreme market needs more life breathing into it and that should happen at Leopardstown on Boxing Day, the card opening with a couple of highly-competitive, two-mile maiden hurdles.
Klassical Dream won the first of them in 2018 en route to landing the Supreme and Ballymore winners City Island (2018) and Sir Gerhard (2021) have been recent winners of the latter, to put some meat on the bones.
Keep half an eye out for Impaire Et Passe and Quais De Paris among the entries this year – both appeal as likely types on paper and are 25/1 and 33/1 respectively for the Supreme.
3. Lifetime Ambition doesn’t blow his National mark
I’m still weighing up whether it’s already too late for this particular project, but Lifetime Ambition should probably duck the Savills Chase and wait for something a little easier in the New Year.
Granted, his owners and trainer Jessica Harrington may wish to roll the dice in one of the marquee Irish Grade Ones, but if they want to win the Grand National at Aintree – evidently the long-term plan in light of his lovely Grand Sefton ‘sighter’ in November – he’s best steering clear of this lot for now or he’s in danger of becoming too harshly treated.
As it stands, with an Irish mark of 155, he’s possibly still got a few pounds to play with as an improving seven-year-old going on eight, but he could finish sixth at Leopardstown and still be nudged up a couple more pounds.
So it’s hoped connections can sit tight – preferably until the Aintree weights are revealed in early-February – before plotting a prep run in something sensible. What’s Christmas without hope.
4. Royale Pagaille becomes the latest major weight-carrier at Chepstow
I laid out the case for Royale Pagaille lugging top weight to victory in the Coral Welsh National a couple of weeks ago and won’t repeat all of that here, but recent talk of Wetherby on the Nick Luck Daily Podcast has caused some consternation in this household.
As a dual Peter Marsh Chase winner, maybe the Rowland Meyrick on a flat-left circuit in the north of England could be seen as a legitimate alternative target, but you’d have thought Royale Pagaille will be pointed wherever soft ground is most likely and I’d be betting Chepstow over Wetherby every day of the week in that little match.
Rich and Susannah Ricci seemingly aren’t short this Christmas but you’re also looking at a £56,950 gap in winners’ prize-money between the two races just one day apart in the calendar.
I love a trip to Wetherby on Boxing Day as much as anyone but certainly don’t want to be seeing the pink and green spots through the West Yorkshire gloom this year.
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5. Brazil continues education towards Festival repeat
The Padraig Roche-trained Brazil - winner of the Fred Winter in the spring when memorably toughing it out to beat epic gamble Gaelic Warrior - is 100/1 for the Champion Hurdle and 20/1 for the Stayers' Hurdle, which tells its own story, but I suspect a sweet spot will be found in terms of distance this season, and he screams Coral Cup.
Quite how that path is plotted will be interesting to see over the next few months but he was very well placed to beat Fil Dor in the Fishery Lane Hurdle last month and his handicap mark doesn't appear to have been increased as he was in receipt of 9lb from Gordon Elliott's at Naas.
Rated 90 at one point on the Flat for Aidan O'Brien, the son of Galileo could improve significantly for a move up in trip as this second season over hurdles goes on and, although he holds no entries at this point, his is very much a name to note going forward and another experience-building run at the minimum trip during the Christmas period wouldn't go amiss before the real fun begins in 2023.
6. Bob Olinger wins for the De Bromheads
The jumping game will always need characters – both human and equine – who divide opinion and Bob Olinger has been called all sorts of wretched names after seemingly letting a few people down over fences last season, but this horse winning the Jack De Bromhead Christmas Hurdle on December 28 will unite hearts and minds on both sides of the Irish Sea.
The way Henry De Bromhead and family have carried themselves in spite of tragedy this year has been monumental and weighing up a horse’s big-race credentials seems almost absurd in such context, but Bob Olinger showed more than enough zest for the hurdling game when second to Home By The Lee on his comeback in the Lismullen and he wouldn’t be the only star from the yard that might be expected to improve for the run this season.
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