1000 Guineas tips: Punting Pointers ante-post Flat season preview

Antepost Flat season tips

1pt win Porta Fortuna in QIPCO 1000 Guineas at 25/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair, Unibet)

• Click here to back Porta Fortuna at enhanced odds with Sky Bet

Donnacha O’Brien’s PORTA FORTUNA might not be the sexiest of suggestions for the 1000 Guineas - after all, she’s already had the seven starts and arguably looks more exposed than a few around her in the market - but she is proven at the highest level and her form stacks up well when measured against others at shorter prices.

Porta Fortuna was a decisive winner of the Albany Stakes at Royal Ascot, where she impressed with the way she moved through the race before taking it up at the furlong pole and repelling the challenge of subsequent Airlie Stud Stakes winner Matrika.

She failed to improve on that when tried in Group 1 company in the Phoenix Stakes (beaten four lengths by Bucanero Fuerte) or the Moyglare Stud Stakes (5¾ lengths joint-third to Guineas second-favourite Fallen Angel), but those races were run on slower ground, and she belatedly built on her Royal Ascot win when clocking a smart time in the Cheveley Park Stakes at Newmarket at the end of September, beating Rubies And Pearls by a length and a half on ground Timeform called good to firm.

It’s easy to conclude that she needs quick ground, and that may be the case, but there may also be an element of her growing through the summer and refinding her form when given time to strengthen up in the autumn.

She was the pick of the paddock for David prior to the Cheveley Park, and he noted that she looked a more robust filly than she had earlier in the year, and one that would likely train on well as a three-year-old.

She stepped up to a mile for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf at Santa Anita and proved her stamina with an excellent second to Hard To Justify, who got first run on her.

Her willingness to battle, when coupled with the high-class form she’s shown to date, makes her a threat to all this season and the 25/1 quotes bandied around are worth taking.

Donnacha O’Brien is of the opinion that the key to her is quick ground, which would be a particular concern for her prep race, mooted to be the Ballylinch Stud 'Priory Belle' 1000 Guineas Trial at Leopardstown on April 7.

• Click here to back Porta Fortuna at enhanced odds with Sky Bet

I’d not be too downbeat if she was beaten there on what is likely to be testing ground, but the trainer has suggested that soft or heavy ground at Leopardstown would lead to her missing the trial in favour of a racecourse gallop.

I was encouraged to hear the trainer say that she had “wintered particularly well”, for all few Classic prospects winter badly according to official announcements.

Who else merits attention at current odds?

There are plenty of dangers, but the two we are most respectful of at the prices are Fallen Angel and Ramatuelle, the former probably the form pick on what she showed last term, and the latter under consideration for Newmarket according to Christopher Head, although the French Guineas is at least as likely a target.

Karl Burke did particularly well with his juvenile fillies in 2023, with Darnation and Fallen Angel both looking top-notch prospects, but while the former is almost certainly in need of soft ground to show her form, Fallen Angel is more adaptable, and she had a below-par Porta Fortuna behind when winning the Moyglare Stud Stakes over 7f at the Curragh.

She had to quicken twice to score in the Moyglare, and impressed in the way she responded when joined by runner-up Vespertilio, coming away to win with authority after looking to face a stern challenge.

Fallen Angel had shown her best form on quick turf prior to her Curragh success, but she looks like she will cope with anything except perhaps heavy, and she should have no trouble staying a mile on the evidence of her strong finish there.

Ramatuelle looks sure to make her mark at the top level in 2024, and although beaten twice in her first season, narrow defeats to Beauvatier and Vandeek carry no shame whatsoever, and she was a wide-margin winner of Pattern races at Chantilly in between those efforts, beating the prolific Zorken by five lengths in the Prix du Bois and equally impressive in the Group 2 Prix Robert Papin the following month.

Her form has been at 6f to date and she does have a speedy pedigree, but she ought to stay a mile, and her trainer has mapped out a campaign solely at that distance for her, which could include a trip to Newmarket in early May.

If she is sent across the Channel, her odds will contract sharply, and we would fear her most if she turned up.

Preview posted 1304 GMT on 25/03/24

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