1000 Guineas tips: Horse by horse guide and Value Bet shortlist for Matt Brocklebank

Horse-by-horse guide

Click here for Sky Bet odds and offers

CAERNARFON (Jack Channon)

Didn’t look anything out of the ordinary early on last summer but improved for time and a step up in distance to win two of her last three juvenile starts. Smooth success over this course and distance (soft) when last seen has to be considered a major plus and her full-sister won the Fred Darling - before admittedly not making much of an impression in the Guineas itself - in 2018. Also entered in the Oaks so may be looking to step up further in trip before long but certainly not hard to see her running well at a wild price.

DANCE IN THE GRASS (Charlie Johnston)

Another entered in the Oaks (also in the Irish Oaks) and likely to benefit from a much greater test of stamina in due course. That was certainly how it looked when seventh to Polly Pott at Doncaster before her sixth in the Fillies’ Mile when last seen.

DREAM OF LOVE (Charlie Appleby)

Shamardal filly from a top yard and third to Caernarfon over this course and distance in October on the back of a narrow debut success over 7f here earlier that month. Has since looked a very unlucky loser when flying home from an impossible position to go down a short-head to subsequent winner Mawj out in Dubai. Put away for this since and high on the shortlist despite price shortening since early-spring. William Buick booked.

EMBRACE (Owen Burrows)

Clearly going the right way but not progressing quickly enough to think she can get into the frame here, having been fourth behind a couple of these rivals on her seasonal return in the Fred Darling at Newbury.

FAIRY CROSS (Charlie Appleby)

Stable companion of Dream Of Love and she was best of the rest when second to Mammas Girl in the Nell Gwyn, seemingly running right up to the pick of her two-year-old form in the process. Might not have been helped by trying to make the running against the headwind that day but likely she’s shown how good she is now after six starts and others appear stronger.

KARSAVINA (Clive Cox)

Convinced we didn’t see the best of her despite making a winning start over 7f here in October (bred to want better ground ideally) and quite noteworthy for a Clive Cox-trained filly to be winning on debut at that time of year anyway. Caught the eye with her Nell Gwyn fourth to Mammas Girl on easy ground again last month, and entitled to step forward markedly on the back of that comeback effort. Cox knows the family well and she’s definitely a dark horse worth considering.

LEZOO (Ralph Beckett)

Rock-solid two-year-old last year who rose through the ranks to win the Group 1 Cheveley Park Stakes over 6f here in September. Not cast iron to stay the mile on pedigree and run-style but well worth a shot for a trainer who also has the budding star Remarquee to call upon.

MAMMAS GIRL (Richard Hannon)

Quickened stylishly to win her novice over 7f here in October and defied relatively long odds when producing another sparkling turn of foot in last month’s Nell Gwyn. Facing a much deeper field this weekend but very hard to take a negative view about her overall prospects as she seems to handle good and easy ground equally well. The general 6/1 is no more than fair as it stands, however.

MATILDA PICOTTE (Kieran Cotter)

Consistent daughter of Sioux Nation who was put in her place somewhat by Never Ending Story on Leopardstown return last month. Likely to appreciate getting back on some nice ground at some point but hard to see her playing a part in this.

MAWJ (Saeed bin Suroor)

Not only brings high-class juvenile form to the table from last year but has since won both starts out in Dubai during January/February, looking to improve for the first try at a mile when last seen. Had looked a shade fortunate to beat Dream Of Love the time before but both Godolphin fillies deserve a second look if lining up on Sunday.

MEDITATE (Aidan O’Brien)

Kept on the go after an April start last season and although put in her place by Tahiyra in the Moyglare, she appeared to put that experience to good use when going close in the Cheveley Park and in winning the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies’ Turf upped to a mile on her final run of the campaign. There are middle-distance performers in her pedigree but mile looks ideal for now and in there with leading claims, as the market firmly suggests.

NAOMI LAPAGLIA (Richard Spencer)

Bit of a springer in the antepost market over the past few weeks having been 100/1 at the beginning of March (generally 33s at time of writing). Only seen once on the track and her Kempton debut yielded a half-length success from another newcomer. The third has been narrowly beaten at novice level since so form needs improving upon in a big way and her quality pedigree isn’t going to be enough to lure me into a bet.

OLIVIA MARALDA (Roger Varian)

Amo Racing seem to be getting their horses ready first time out so this one isn’t completely dismissed by any means, especially having joined a top Newmarket yard (trained by Michael O’Callaghan last season). Only a Newbury maiden winner but chased home Meditate in the Debutante so she’s got a touch of class and might be one to appreciate the step up to a mile this spring.

POLLY POTT (Ben Pauling)

Fascinating runner for predominantly jumps trainer having left Harry Dunlop’s yard after he drew stumps. She won four on the spin, including a Doncaster Group 2, before finding the top table a little too hot to handle in the Fillies’ Mile over this course and distance. Chances are she’ll be out of her depth again but she’d appreciate a big field and might be doing some decent work late in the piece.

POWERDRESS (Richard Hannon)

Rated 88 after narrow maiden win over 5f here last April and promising comeback third upped to 7f in a conditions race against colts at the Craven meeting recently. Looks capable of better and entitled to be sharper for the outing but too much ground to make up on plenty of these.

QUEEN ME (Kevin Ryan)

Couldn’t quite carry on the family tradition in York’s Lowther Stakes last summer, just coming up short in a bid to emulate her dam, granddam and great-granddam in winning that Ebor Festival event. Ran to a similar sort of level in Ayr Group 3 later in the season and looks more of a sprinting type so can’t really see her taking up this engagement.

REMARQUEE (Ralph Beckett)

Quite stoutly bred on the dam’s side but this daughter of Kingman looks to possess a spot of the sire’s brilliance based on wins at Salisbury and Newbury to this point. Only narrowly got home in the end in the Fred Darling but she was still showing signs of greenness and her jockey dropped the whip too so bare form can be upgraded. Handling the famous dip here is another matter but she looks well up to running a big race if coping with the track.

STENTON GLIDER (Hugo Palmer)

Daughter of Dandy Man doesn’t look an obvious one for Classic glory and she’ll be a big price but entitled to have a crack following improved comeback second behind Remarquee at Newbury. Would handle rain better than some but still unlikely to be good enough.

SWEET HARMONY (Richard Spencer)

Won her maiden second time out at Yarmouth last summer but had limitations exposed thereafter and again when only seventh behind Mammas Girl in the Nell Gwyn here last month.

TAHIYRA (Dermot Weld)

Made just two starts last year but could hardly have made a deeper impression, stepping up on Galway maiden effort to fly by Meditate en route to Group 1 glory in the Moyglare. If she’s trained on from two to three then she’ll take the world of beating but unlikely to become a serious betting proposition until after the declarations, by which time the already skinny price is likely to have contracted further still. Reckon she’ll be on to take on having her first trip to England.

Value Bet shortlist

Click here for Sky Bet odds and offers

Tahiyra was brilliant in two starts last year but brilliant juveniles aren't always top three-year-olds - far from it in fact - and when it comes to the current betting I'll happily look elsewhere. Dream Of Love was the antepost pick at the beginning of April but the 16/1 then has become 13/2 now (despite her not running), so we could be casting the net even wider come the weekend. Here are three for the shortlist as things stand...

Caernarfon - She had Dream Of Love back in third when signing off her juvenile season in style over this track and trip in a Listed race and she moved through that contest like a quality filly going places. In-form, freshman trainer has elected not to run in a trial and she's consequently an unconsidered outsider. She might be one more for an Oaks trial in truth but I'd like to see her in the line-up on Sunday.

Karsavina - Arguably my number one pick at the odds at this stage as she certainly didn't damage her reputation when fourth of 15 in the Nell Gwyn. Looks bound to have been brought along steadily this spring, by a patient trainer who knows the family so well, and drier ground this weekend could result in a massive amount of improvement. Definitely looks over-priced.

Olivia Maralda - Hard to make a solid case for this one but the Amo Racing three-year-olds have made a big splash already including colt Indestructible who had been campaigned by Michael O'Callaghan in Ireland at two. This filly moves from the same yard to Roger Varian which is eyecatching enough in itself and when you factor in she was beaten less than a length by Meditate (around 9/2 here) in the Debutante Stakes, then her price looks a trifle big.

Updated at 1015 BST on 05/05/23

More from Sporting Life

• Racecards
• Fast results
• Full results and free video replays
• Horse racing news
• Horse racing tips
• Horse racing features
• Download our free iOS and Android app
• Football and other sports tips
• Podcasts and video content

Safer gambling

We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.

If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.

Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org