1000 Guineas analysis as True Love is 'a cut above the rest' at Newmarket

Trying to set this year’s Betfred 1000 Guineas into some sort of context based around the past 10 editions may seem arbitrary, especially after Racing TV reminded us all on Sunday morning that the Newmarket fillies’ Classic was first run 212 years ago.

However, we’ve been fortunate enough to see some proper fillies in that time, plus a range of winners from 66/1 shocks (Billesdon Brook) to the 11/10 and even-money favourites, namely Minding in 2016 and Desert Flower last year.

On the flip-side, five of the past 10 winners haven’t exactly gone on to set the world alight.

The surprise package Billesdon Brook, trained by Richard Hannon and ridden by Sean Levey, lost her way after enjoying Guineas glory before eventually defying odds of 16/1 to win the Sun Chariot as a four-year-old, while Mawj missed the rest of her domestic Classic campaign in 2023 before winning a top-level race in Northern America ahead of her retirement the following spring.

Last year’s hotly-fancied winner Desert Flower hasn’t been sighted since finishing third in the Oaks the following month, Roger Varian’s Elmaka couldn’t win again in six more starts, with George Boughey’s Cachet out of luck in four appearances post-Guineas although she did sell for 2.2 million guineas at Tattersalls so it wasn't all bad news.

The other handful of winners were, conveniently with this year’s race in mind, won by Aidan O’Brien and he now has the enviable task of plotting a path with True Love, who became the trainer’s eighth 1000 Guineas winner in total courtesy of a sparkling Sunday performance under jockey Wayne Lordan.

Perhaps it’s not much of a task at all as while O'Brien intimated True Love has the natural speed to drop back in trip should it be deemed necessary, if last year’s Queen Mary and Cheveley Park winner is staying a mile this well at Newmarket, the onward route just about maps itself out from here.

The Curragh, where she has unfinished business having been beaten at odds of 1/4 in last year’s G1 Phoenix Stakes, will surely be next before a return to the scene of her 2025 Royal Ascot success and a shot at the Coronation Stakes on the round course. She's a big girl now, by all accounts, but that configuration should arguably play to her strengths even more.

O’Brien’s 2017 Guineas winner Winter, who had a similar prep for Newmarket when narrowly beaten in the seven-furlong 1,000 Guineas Trial Stakes at Leopardstown in April and was also partnered by Lordan, won all three of those aforementioned Group 1s before adding the 10-furlong Nassau Stakes to her tally, but she was sired by Galileo and it’s hard to see True Love ever being asked to go beyond eight furlongs.

Stranger things have happened, of course, and she is out of Alluringly who finished third in Enable’s Oaks, but the big question going into Sunday was 'would True Love see out the distance?', and she answered that in no uncertain terms.

Mother Earth was O’Brien’s most recent winner of the 1000 Guineas – either Guineas for that matter – and she was kept to a mile for the remainder of her career, adding the Group 1 Prix Rothschild and Group 3 Park Express Stakes from a dozen subsequent racecourse visits.

Given her dominance, the manner in which she travelled and quickened when the button was pushed, one can’t help but feel that a similar return with True Love may be seen as disappointing. She's open to further improvement physically and really could be a cut above the rest at three. She might potentially even mix it with the colts deeper into the season, although the fillies' programme is hardly short of top-tier opportunities right through to the autumn.

The form will in all likelihood stack up too, Karl Burke having every right to be eyeing a crack at the Prix de Diane (10 furlongs) with gallant runner-up Evolutionist and Charlie Johnston’s Venetian Lace, another from last year’s Fillies’ Mile, running a game race for a yard seemingly in decent form this spring. Next stop Epsom for her and another big run at rewarding odds wouldn't come as a shock.

The other one to attract antepost support for the Oaks was Charlie Appleby's Abashiri, the least experienced horse in the Guineas field with just a Kempton maiden win to her name. A daughter of Frankel out of Dubawi mare Sobetsu, she's from the family of 2001 Oaks winner Imagine and there was plenty to like about her effort in fifth, despite appearing to get a bit lost on the track at a key moment.

The Fillies’ Mile winner, Precise, was on the face of it a shade disappointing in seventh. But considering the early-season hold-up in her training, and the fact she still managed to finish third in her group towards the far-side rail, and you can certainly afford her another chance at the top table.

Best horse in second?

Earlier in the day, surely it was a case of best horse finishing second as Cathedral settled for the runner-up spot behind the more patiently-ridden winner Jancis in the Dahlia Stakes.

The whole race appeared to hinge around the returning Falakeyah, who was strong in the market having been a fine winner of the Pretty Polly on this card 12 months earlier, but her headstrong ways once again got the better of her, leaving jockey Saffie Osborne with a near-impossible task.

There was a brief moment when Osborne appeared to have the powerful daughter of New Bay in just about enough control, but soon after halfway the revs were already up way too high and Falakeyah ultimately paid the price and dropped away to finish sixth.

Jancis, under the pump a fair way out just to keep up, stayed on to pick up the pieces but Cathedral was beaten less than two lengths despite chasing the ultra-strong tempo from the outset. There was eight and a half lengths back to third home, the 112-rated Survie.

So while it was a messy affair from a tactical perspective, there’s no escaping the fact Cathedral has run a huge race and it’s remarkable to think she’s yet to add to her sole success which came on debut in September 2024.

She’s only had a handful of starts for trainer Kevin Philippart De Foy and although the G1 Pretty Polly Stakes entry for the Curragh looks a shade fanciful, she’s one to upgrade going forward and a second career win should be a formality at Group 2 or Group 3 level in the short-term.

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