Femke Bol can guide the Netherlands to gold in the 4x400m relay at the World Athletics Championship according to Rory Jiwani, who has five selections in total.
World Athletics betting tips: Women's track & field
4pts Netherlands to win women’s 4x400m relay at 7/1 (bet365, William Hill)
1pt Marie-Josee Ta Lou to win women’s 100m at 4/1 (Betfred)
1pt Natalia Kaczmarek to win women’s 400m at 7/1 (bet365)
1pt Eleanor Patterson to win women’s high jump at 18/1 (Betway)
1pt Sifan Hassan to win women’s 5000m at 10/1 (Unibet)
The women’s 100m is the obvious place to start with Shelley-Ann Fraser-Pryce bidding for an unprecedented sixth title in the event. The Jamaican did not open her season until July, finishing second to Shericka Jackson in the 200m at the national trials before winning two 100m races in Europe in very decent times.
But at 36, there must be question marks over whether she can bring her A game to Budapest. And there are three women who have run faster than her this season – Jackson, Sha’Carri Richardson and MARIE-JOSEE TA-LOU.
The latter has been a perennial contender without being able to trouble the Jamaican stars including Elaine Thompson-Herah who failed to qualify for the individual sprints. The Ivorian is a fast starter but had the unfortunate habit of tensing up and losing her form as she came under pressure in the closing stages. I remember commenting to a friend that if she were a racehorse, a pair of blinkers would work wonders.
But there has been a definite change this season. Not only is the 34-year-old on a nine-race winning streak over 100m, but the manner of her victory last time out in London was hugely impressive. Ta Lou didn’t make a particularly good start with Dina Asher-Smith best away, but she showed no sign of panic and picked up to win smoothly from the Briton with Jackson third.
In Oslo a month previously, she did get away well and moved further clear of her rivals headed by Anthonique Strachan with Jackson only third.
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Richardson had been unbeaten over 100m this season, including a fine Silesia Diamond League win over Jackson, but her defeat to Saint Lucian hopeful Julien Alfred was a surprise when it looked like the American had found some consistency.
Another concern is that her fastest time of the year came in the heats of the US Trials – she was slower in the semis and slower still in the final – suggesting she still has plenty to learn about managing competitions. This will be her global championship debut having missed the Tokyo Olympics due to a positive cannabis test, and failed to qualify for last year’s Worlds.
Ta Lou is the one athlete from the big four with the fewest doubts surrounding her form and, while she has disappointed in major events before, I’m happy to take the 7/2 generally and standout 4/1 with Betfred about her finally landing a big one.
Jackson looks bombproof in her 200m title defence, but the 400m is open after the late withdrawal of Sydney McLaughlin-Levrone.
World and Olympic silver medallist Marileidy Paulino has been priced up as the 1/3 favourite, with reigning champ Shaunae-Miller Uibo the 6/1 second favourite despite her only action since her return from childbirth in April (yes, April) being five events in the Bahamian national heptathlon.
With Miller-Uibo easily passed over, although it would be a wonderful story, Paulino is the one to focus on but she was beaten in her last appearance by NATALIA KACZMAREK who looks overpriced.
That clash came in the Silesia Diamond League with Kaczmarek setting a big personal best to the delight of the home crowd. Paulino, who raced quite a lot early in the season, was struggling at halfway but finished strongly to take third.
She has had the last month off, with Kaczmarek backing that win up with victory in Monaco in another sub-50 time.
While it’s possible that race was a mere blip for the Dominican athlete, I’m happy to take her on with Kaczmarek set to give us a run for our money at 13/2 generally.
Home soil magic 🔥
— World Athletics (@WorldAthletics) July 16, 2023
🇵🇱's Natalia Kaczmarek storms to the win in the women's 400m as she smashes her PB with 49.48 💪#DiamondLeague pic.twitter.com/BdI17rp7As
Bol to power Dutch to gold
Splitting Kaczmarek and Paulino that day was Lieke Klaver and she is involved in what I don’t mind admitting is my biggest bet of the entire meet. She is part of the DUTCH WOMEN’S 4X400M RELAY team anchored by Femke Bol who is the hottest of favourites in the 400m hurdles.
Bol beat Kaczmarek to the flat 400m European title last year but has opted to focus on hurdles this year despite breaking the world indoor record in February.
At last year’s World Championships, she produced a sensational anchor leg in the semi-finals to put the Dutch in a qualifying spot after a teammate had dropped the baton. Disqualification nullfied that effort, but they made amends at the European Championships in Munich with Bol crossing the line well clear of Kaczmarek having taken over in third place.
Femke Bol and @kwarholm laid down huge markers during the #DiamondLeague season and will be keen on continuing their dominance in @wabudapest23 👀
— World Athletics (@WorldAthletics) August 14, 2023
400m hurdles #WorldAthleticsChamps preview 👇
McLaughlin-Levrone anchored the Americans to gold in Eugene last year and her absence will be keenly felt. On paper, the Americans are the stronger although two of their gold medallists from 12 months ago – Britton Wilson and Talitha Diggs – have never raced outside of North America.
If Bol is within a couple of seconds at the final changeover, she can close the gap and secure gold. I missed the initial 8/1 offered by bet365 but 7/1 is still on offer with them and Hills and is well worth taking.
With Athing Mu out, Keely Hodgkinson is around the 4/5 favourite in the 800m although I cannot see why.
Kenya’s Mary Moraa is unbeaten over two laps this season and beat the Briton fair and square in their only meeting of 2023 in Lausanne. She also famously beat her in the final of last year’s Commonwealth Games and has that vital asset of tactical speed.
Whichever way the race is run, I can only see Moraa winning and would have fancied her to beat Mu had she turned up. As it is, 6/5 about the Kenyan is not my sort of price although she may be going in some multiples.
Faith Kipyegon has been the star of the year with world records over 1500m, the mile and 5000m. And while she is unopposable in the defence of her 1500m title, I can definitely see her being beaten in the 5000m despite her skinny odds of 1/4.
Why? Well, she has only run the 5000m twice in her career – breaking the world record at the Paris Diamond League before winning the Kenyan trials. But championship racing is a very different beast with no pacemakers for a start.
Up against her are several top Ethiopians including defending champion Gudaf Tsegay and Letesenbet Gidey. Why Gidey is a shorter price than Tsegay I’m not sure, but they will dictate from the front and mess around with the pace in order to try and take Kipyegon out of her comfort zone. It could be a tactical affair and the Kenyan star may be found wanting.
However they play it, SIFAN HASSAN can upstage them all.
The Dutchwoman won a unique 1500m and 10,000m double at Doha 2019 before taking 5000m and 10,000m gold at the Tokyo Olympics as well as 1500m bronze behind Kipyegon.
She struggled with injury last year and was clearly below her best in Eugene. You could see her wanting to mix it on the final lap of the 5000m but just didn’t have the legs.
This year has been a different story and she somehow came from looking beaten to win on her marathon debut in the streets of London. She was third behind Tsegay over 5000m in her sole Diamond League appearance but said beforehand she wanted to push herself to see where she was at. Having done a lot of the donkey work at the front, she was rewarded with a new European record.
I’m fairly sure Hassan will stay in the pack this time and hope to unleash her devastating finishing kick. While Kipyegon is the queen of the 1500m, even she would struggle to live with the 57.36 final lap Hassan produced to win Olympic 5000m gold two years ago.
At 9/1 with bet365 and a point bigger with Unibet, the reigning Olympic champ is far too big a price.
Patterson price on the high side
I am happy to leave the majority of the field events alone with one notable exception in the high jump where I’m backing ELEANOR PATTERSON to retain her title.
The Australian won the 2014 Commonwealth Games as an 18-year-old but quit the sport in 2018 before moving to Sydney a year later having been persuaded to return by coach Alex Stewart. Despite the pandemic and injuries, Patterson reached the Tokyo Olympic final where she finished fifth, and then took silver behind Ukraine’s Yaroslava Mahuchikh at last year’s world indoors.
While she was not one of the favourites in Eugene, she showed superb competitive instincts to clear 1.98m on her third and final attempt before equalling the Australian record of 2.02m held by Olympic silver medallist Nicola Olyslagers (born McDermott) to take gold.
Mahuchikh and Olyslagers make the market with both women clearing two metres this season, while Patterson is on her way back from foot surgery in February. She has competed three times since and said that her 1.96m in Monaco, where she finished fourth, “felt like a victory, like the old me”.
Having already proved herself a jumper for the big occasion, 18/1 from Betway looks exceedingly generous with little to separate the top handful of women.
Posted at 1645 BST on 17/08/23
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