Who will win Sports Personality of the Year? Preview, odds, start time, how to vote and contender profiles

Profiling the nominees

Lewis Hamilton

It's been another exceptional year for Hamilton, who won his seventh world title, equalling a record set by Michael Schumacher, without ever looking under threat. Along the way he managed 11 wins, equalling his own previous best despite a shorter calendar and missing one race himself due to Covid-19. Crucially, perhaps, he passed Schumacher's previous record of 91 grands prix wins and that's the backbone of the case for him. Hamilton has achieved so much in his career, one which now spans almost a decade and a half, but 2020 must go down as a landmark year; the one in which some promoted him to first in their own all-time list, though that remains a topic of fervent debate. Another important point to make is that Hamilton has been a prominent voice during a year of uprising, supporting campaigns such as Black Lives Matter and vowing to combat climate change, while asking tough questions of his colleagues and his sport. How many votes that earns him we will never know - sadly, it could even lose him some - but he is to be admired for his actions both on and off the track. Yes, he drives the fastest car. But he does it better than anyone else could, and has grown into his role of leadership - whether in pursuit of a chequered flag, or something altogether bigger.

Ronnie O'Sullivan

Unanimously considered snooker's most talented player, O'Sullivan became its most decorated by winning his 37th ranking title this summer. It was, of course, no ordinary ranking title that he won, as the then-44-year-old bagged his sixth World Championship - some 19 years after his first. For all of this, for winning both the Masters and the UK Championship seven times, for more than a thousand career centuries, finally, after 25 years towards the top of his sport, one of the UK's greatest ever sportsmen received his first SPOTY nomination. It is long overdue. Whether he can topple a record-breaking Hamilton and the motorsport vote we will find out, and perhaps snooker hasn't done enough to promote the idea of a collective push, the like of which racing used to propel AP McCoy to glory a decade ago. O'Sullivan would be no less worthy a winner, and while reward would in part be an acknowledgement of his career as a whole, in truth he has the full house: longevity, utter brilliance, and an achievement in this very year which would be sufficient in isolation. As popular as ever for all he can infuriate even those close to him, if Hamilton doesn't win, surely it will be O'Sullivan. It's also worth noting that he could be playing in the World Grand Prix final as the ceremony concludes, and it would be oh-so-Ronnie to flick open a laptop to chat via Zoom between ambidextrous centuries. Then again, it would be no less surprising were he to shrug his shoulders and go for a jog instead. He is one of a kind, all right, and this is probably the last chance this famous award has to honour him properly.

Hollie Doyle

Who is Hollie Doyle? It’s a question some of the voting public will be asking themselves come Sunday night as there’s little doubt she’s the least recognisable face amongst the shortlisted six. However, the message is spreading fast. Some viewers will recognise the only female nominated for this year’s awards after her appearances in the sport bulletins on BBC News and she’s popped up on there several times this year with good reason, as racing fans well know. This has very much been a year of tremendous success for Doyle, her 146 winners breaking her own record for number of victories by a female jockey in a calendar year, but that number has included quality as well as quantity; like her first Group One winner aboard Glen Shiel on Qipco British Champions Day, or her win aboard Trueshan in the Long Distance Cup on the same card. She gained a first Royal Ascot winner on Scarlet Dragon earlier in the season, too, while her Windsor five-timer in August lit up a summer Saturday afternoon. Racing has fared well in this annual poll traditionally when they’ve had a runner – Frankie Dettori was third in 1996 after his magnificent seven at Ascot, while Sir Anthony McCoy won it 10 years ago after he finally won the Grand National aboard Don’t Push It. The Vote AP campaign helped McCoy over the line and the partisan racing contingent are at it again, which might explain Doyle’s shortening odds in recent days.

Tyson Fury

Back in 2015, Fury became the first man to defeat Wladimir Klitschko and for that, many considered him a likely winner. In the end, he settled for fourth place, sparing the BBC some embarrassment after sexist comments directed towards Jessica Ennis-Hill (third) in the build-up. At the time, Fury was followed by controversy, all of his own doing, and it's perhaps not surprising that he was unable to emulate 1999 winner Lennox Lewis despite boxing tending to punch above its weight at SPOTY. Five years on, it would be fair to describe him as a changed man, one who has battled his own demons and come out the other side all the stronger. His draw with Deontay Wilder in 2018 (most felt Fury had won the fight) was the first step towards salvation, and in February of this year he completed it with one of the finest performances a British heavyweight has ever produced, ending the rematch in round seven. Although kept out of the ring since due to factors beyond his control, that victory on US soil is an achievement deserving of a place on the podium. There's just a concern it's a little dated now and that Fury remains a polarising figure, his style more for the purist than the part-time observer and Anthony Joshua having been dominating headlines recently. If and when those two do finally face off, boxing should end its 21-year SPOTY drought.

Jordan Henderson

The one-man engine room as Liverpool won the Premier League for the first time, Henderson was really the only viable candidate to ensure football was involved - at least, once those in charge had decided to honour Rashford with a separate award. Henderson has been Liverpool's captain since 2015 and while he has at times been questioned by England fans for his performances for his country, ask any Liverpool fan and they'll gladly heap praise on him until you kindly ask them to stop. Henderson's performances drove Liverpool forward and he was rewarded with the Football Writers' award, after which his manager, Jurgen Klopp, said it best: "He grew in that role in an exceptional way, I cannot imagine a player who would have done it like this. That makes him the wonderful person he is today. Yes, other players played an exceptional season, 100 per cent, but if you want to have a guy that really fought his way through to the point where he is now and [what he] became, it is just absolutely deserved." Of course, that argument doesn't necessarily translate now he's against behemoths from other sports, four of them essentially soloists (for all Hamilton of course depends on Mercedes). It's therefore likely that Henderson finishes somewhere between third and fifth having gathered a decent share of the vote.

Stuart Broad

For so long seen as the supporting actor in the famed Broad and Anderson partnership, 2020 is the year when Stuart Broad stood tall as Stuart Broad, no longer living in the shadow of his close friend and fast-bowling ally, but leading from the front for his country, quite often without Anderson by his side. Broad has been one of England’s greatest ever bowlers for well over a decade now, but when Anderson limped out of the 2019 Ashes, the Nottinghamshire man led England’s attack manfully before welcoming in the New Year by again finishing as England’s leading wicket-taker in South Africa. When Broad was inexplicably dropped by England for the first Test of this summer against the West Indies, England fans were up in arms at his omission and came out in support of the now 34-year-old. Broad famously reaffirmed his desire to win back his spot and when he did, it was almost inevitable that he would finish that series and the subsequent one against Pakistan as England’s leading wicket-taker. When he claimed his 500th Test wicket at Old Trafford against the West Indies in July, his legend had been confirmed, and when Anderson went to 600 Test wickets only a few weeks later, that Broad was one of the first to congratulate him said everything about Broad the man and this truly remarkable pair. Anderson had his crack at this award in 2018, and did not make the podium. It's likely that Broad will suffer a similar fate, but cricket fans should nevertheless welcome the opportunity to celebrate a fine career - one that is far from finished.

Sporting Life verdict

Hamilton is clearly the most likely winner and a shoo-in for the podium, but he's won this award once and that raises something of a red flag. In 2015, when he became the first Briton to defend an F1 Drivers' Championship in collecting his third, he finished fifth with just 5% of the vote share. In 2017, he broke Schumacher's pole positions record and became the first Briton to win four world titles, yet finished sixth. Though figures are no longer released, he has been beaten twice since, losing to Geraint Thomas and Ben Stokes.

Granted, Thomas is a Welshman who had won the Tour de France, and Stokes produced one of the most remarkable summers you'll ever see from a cricketer. There was no shame in Hamilton finishing runner-up to either. And yet in doing so he confirmed yet again that there's always scope for someone whose achievements we're less desensitised to snatching top spot.

Of course, O'Sullivan's achievements are hardly new but in a more competitive sport, what he's done in 2020 should resonate. He's extremely popular and snooker remains a BBC sport, if only once a year. How much of an impact that has on voting is yet another unknown, but we'll be reminded during the live show of his dominant final win, and that exhaustingly exceptional semi-final epic against Mark Selby. He will be talked up as the best there has ever been by people who had once held that mantle, like Stephen Hendry. Viewers may well be swayed in his direction.

Doyle is the other potential threat, or at least she ought to be. It's been a stunning year for her and the story of her relationship with fellow jockey Tom Marquand has been a regular feature of coverage - albeit on ITV and ITV4, rather than the BBC. In terms of the specifics, in June she rode her first Group-race winner, in August she rode a five-timer at Windsor, and in October she surpassed her own record for number of winners by a female jockey in one season, ultimately taking fourth in the jockeys' championship.

Doyle's success, which went on to Champions Day where she became the first female rider to enter the winner's enclosure and also bagged her first Group One, has quite rightly cultivated a narrative within racing which seeks to ignore the gender of the jockey and focus on their skills and achievements. As it was put earlier this year, she should be seen simply as one of the best jockeys, rather than the best female jockey. And yet she is the one breaking down these barriers, making these ambitions possible; her gender is relevant and makes her achievements all the more powerful.

Do the paying public care much for a five-timer at Windsor? Does the Rose of Lancaster or a pattern-class race at Newmarket or even Royal Ascot resonate beyond the sport in the way that victory in the Derby might have? Probably not. Yet racing has proven itself capable of conjuring deep support in the past, and there can be little doubt that its great institutions will come out in support of this rising star. Victory here would be an upset, and no doubt it would infuriate fans of Hamilton and O'Sullivan, who have achieved far more in their lengthy careers. But it is possible, as the odds reflect.

As for the others, Fury didn't quite make the podium when beating Wladimir Klitschko (though he did finish ahead of Hamilton) in 2015, and it's doubtful his defeat of Deontay Wilder, back in February, will be enough to earn him much better than third or fourth. Jordan Henderson will receive a heck of a lot of support from Liverpool and likely Sunderland, but while football students will tell you he powered Liverpool's long-awaited title success as captain, those on the periphery may question the significance of his role and how deserving he is of this solo award given his success as part of an outstanding team.

Broad meanwhile is here on the grounds of lifetime achievement, having taken his 500th Test wicket in the summer. Perhaps it's risky to write off a handsome fast bowler with a cult following and from a sport which is fourth on the all-time list when it comes to podium finishers. But cricket has not made headlines in 2020, not in the way that the other sports on the list have, and he seems likely to finish last of the six.

Predicted finishing order

1. Hamilton
2. O'Sullivan
3. Doyle
4. Henderson
5. Fury
6. Broad

When is BBC Sports Personality of the Year?

The ceremony takes place on Sunday December 20, and will be broadcast live on BBC One from 8pm-10pm.

Who is on the SPOTY shortlist?

Nominees were announced by fitness coach and YouTube star Joe Wicks earlier this month. They are:

• Lewis Hamilton (F1)
• Stuart Broad (cricket)
• Jordan Henderson (football)
• Hollie Doyle (horse racing)
• Tyson Fury (boxing)
• Ronnie O'Sullivan (snooker)

Marcus Rashford had been mooted as a likely winner - indeed, he's been matched at odds-on on Betfair Exchange - following his campaigning for free school meals. However, he will be honoured with a separate award during the event, which is being held at Media City in Salford.

How can I vote?

Voting begins during the live show, during which each nominee will have their own number to call via landline or mobile. Those with a BBC account can also vote online.

Who will win the main award?

Bookmakers are of the view that Lewis Hamilton will win the award for a second time, having also triumphed in 2014. Hamilton was runner-up in both 2007 and 2008, and has again taken second place in each of the last two years.

When winning the award in 2014, Hamilton had been expected to give way to Rory McIlroy. However, Hamilton received 209,920 votes to McIlroy's 123,745, with Jo Pavey further back in third place.

As of Thursday December 17, Hamilton was as short as 1/5 in places and no bigger than the 2/7 offered by Sky Bet, bet365, Betfred and Betway. Ronnie O'Sullivan was next at prices ranging from 11/2 to 8/1, with Hollie Doyle priced between 8/1 and 16/1.

Tyson Fury came next (12/1-18/1) along with Jordan Henderson (12/1-18/1), with Stuart Broad the rank outsider t as big as 275/1 with Betfair and Paddy Power. Broad was 18/1 for a top-three finish with Sky Bet.