Will Dean bagged more MMA profits last weekend and he's got three selections for Saturday's UFC Vegas 65, where Derrick Lewis can prove he's not done with yet.
MMA betting tips: UFC Vegas 65
2pts Derrick Lewis to win by TKO/KO at 23/10 (Paddy Power, Betfair)
1.5pts Jennifer Maia to win at 6/4 (General)
0.5pt Maia to win by decision at 47/20 (Unibet)
Polar Bear better beware
Having lost three of his last four bouts, DERRICK LEWIS’s stock within the UFC has never been lower. The Black Beast has been a fan favourite for almost a decade but, at 37 years old, he does seem to be trending towards the tail end of his career. However, it is widely known in combat sports that knockout power is the last thing that abandons a fighter before they retire, and Lewis holds the record for the most knockout victories in UFC history.
In truth, the calibre of opponent that Lewis has faced inside the Octagon in these recent losses, as well as the stylistic challenges that they have presented, almost makes it seem as if his decline is being blown out of proportion. Sergei Pavlovich and Tai Tuivasa are a rare breed of fighter who can both match Lewis’s sheer power, and Ciryl Gane is a defensive enigma who is difficult to hit. None of these three fights presented themselves as ones that Lewis could really excel in, but Saturday night’s main event against Sergey Spivak just might be.
Lewis is a one-dimensional power puncher with limited grappling ability, but that has never stopped him from being successful against opponents who want to force the fight to the mat. A glimpse at the statistics across his 25 UFC fights indicates that The Black Beast has won 11 of his 13 fights where his foes have landed a takedown, without even including his victory over Curtis Blaydes.
The stakes are therefore incredibly high for Lewis’s opponent, Spivak. The Polar Bear has looked impressive with his grappling exploits in the UFC so far, but he will have to submit a flawless performance on Saturday night to overcome this particular opponent. Lewis has shown that his power can carry into the later rounds, so the Moldovan will be in severe danger at any moments in open space.
Regardless of who wins this fight, their victory is very likely to look totally dominant in hindsight. If Spivak really is the talented grappler that the odds indicate him to be, then Lewis should spend the entire fight on his back with no answer for The Polar Bear’s smothering style.
However, should Lewis have his hand raised when all is said and done, he will have needed just one clean punch to bring this fight to a close. Therefore, backing LEWIS TO WIN BY TKO/KO at 23/10 is the more appealing side to be on for Saturday night’s main event.
The KO king @TheBeast_UFC returns at #UFCVegas65 💥 pic.twitter.com/pViUVo1s84
— UFC (@ufc) November 14, 2022
Moroz to meet her match
The preliminary card of UFC Vegas 65 hosts an intriguing bout in the Women’s Flyweight division, as Ukraine’s Maryna Moroz looks to continue climbing the rankings with her fourth successive victory. Her opponent, JENNIFER MAIA, will be hoping to halt her downwards slide, as the now eighth-ranked fighter has lost three of her last four bouts.
Complicated stylistic challenges at the very top of the division look to have been the main issue for Maia in recent fights as, despite her well-rounded skillset, she has been outclassed on the feet and struggled to utilise her Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu on the mat.
While some may look to those fights and see little to inspire any confidence, the calibre of opposition cannot be overstated. Katlyn Chookagian has been a worthy number one contender for years, Valentina Shevchenko has dominated the division since its inception, and Manon Fiorot looks capable of being the one to dethrone her.
Saturday night’s bout against Moroz will give Maia two welcomed changes: a winnable fight on the feet and an opponent who should want to grapple with her. The BJJ black belt should get the better of most exchanges on the mat, and her defensive wrestling looks good enough to keep the fight standing should she choose to. Maia also appears to be the more diverse and better put together striker of the two, giving her slight advantages wherever this fight takes place.
In my eyes, the betting line for this fight appears to be a strong overreaction to Moroz’s recent victory over Mariya Agapova, who was once thought of as a prospect within the division and has previously appeared as an incredibly short-priced favourite on multiple occasions. The Iron Lady certainly looked good in that victory, but upon reflection it appears everyone’s faith in Agapova was drastically misplaced.
Saturday night’s bout against Maia will be a hard-fought one, but I see no clear indication why the more well-rounded and more experienced fighter has been deemed the underdog. On a card where betting opportunities are quite limited, a gamble on JENNIFER MAIA TO WIN at 6/4 is certainly one with value.
To go one further, backing MAIA TO WIN BY DECISION at 47/20 provides a slightly better price, as both women have proven to be defensively reliable enough to see the scorecards.
- CLICK HERE to back Maiai with Sky Bet
- CLICK HERE to back Maiai to win by decision with Sky Bet
Posted at 1620 GMT on 17/11/22
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