UFC Vegas 64 tips: Best bets for this weekend's MMA action on BT Sport
Will Dean previews Saturday night's UFC Vegas 64, where his focus is on two of the big women's bouts.
UFC betting tips: Saturday November 5
2pts Marina Rodriguez to win in rounds 4, 5 or by decision at 11/10 (Sky Bet, PaddyPower)
2pts Miranda Maverick to win by TKO/KO or submission at evens (BoyleSports)
1pt Miranda Maverick to win by submission at 13/8 (BoyleSports)
Rodriguez to rally late
UFC Vegas 64 features an all-Brazilian main event, as surging title contender MARINA RODRIGUEZ faces a fighter with many similar traits in Amanda Lemos. Both women are widely regarded as two of the Strawweight division’s best strikers, leading to an intriguing five-round affair that could very well produce next title challenger from this weight class.
Lemos has been hailed as a breath of fresh air in the Women’s divisions, as it is rare you’ll see such a potent finishing ability at a lower weight class. However, an impressive highlight reel appears to have clouded perceptions of her overall potential within the division, as the elite fighters at 115lbs all have excellent conditioning and an ability to decisively win rounds over 25 minutes.
Lemos is certainly a dangerous fighter, but her front-loaded approach has seen her struggle when fights have extended into the later rounds. Her 2021 split-decision victory over Angela Hill produced some of the most debated scorecards of the year, with many unimpressed with how quickly the Brazilian began to wilt in the third stanza. With the potential for an extra two rounds in Saturday night’s main event, Lemos’s window to secure a victory appears narrow.
Cardio concerns aside, there is an argument to be made that Rodriguez is simply the better striker of the two anyway. Whilst ‘MMA maths’ is not always the most appropriate way to analyse an upcoming fight, both women have faced a common opponent in the last 18 months in Michelle Waterson-Gomez, with very contrasting performances. Rodriguez shone in a one-sided 25-minute beatdown, whereas Lemos clearly lost round one to The Karate Hottie before locking up an opportunistic submission.
Rodriguez deserves to be the 4/9 favourite here and should secure a title shot with yet another commanding decision victory. However, both of her opponent's losses have happened inside the distance, and her clear cardio concerns could present the opportunity for a late stoppage victory for Rodriguez.
Therefore, backing RODRIGUEZ TO WIN IN ROUND 4, 5 OR BY DECISION at 11/10 covers both angles and is the suggested play for Saturday’s main event.
Fear the Maverick
MIRANDA MAVERICK makes her sixth trip to the Octagon as she looks to rebuild the excitement around her young and promising career. The 25-year-old was thought by many to be a future title contender, but consecutive losses in 2021 seem to have plunged her into obscurity.
Maverick returned to winning ways in March this year, securing a second-round submission victory over Sabina Mazo. The young grappler fought with a new sense of urgency on the mat, aggressively advancing position and hunting more swiftly for submissions. It is widely known that the best way for a fighter to generate more excitement around their career is to produce finishes, so perhaps Maverick is intending to compensate for last year’s setbacks from here on.
She has the perfect opportunity to secure another stoppage against Shanna Young on Saturday, having already submitted The Shanimal in a 2019 exhibition fight. From the opening bell of that bout, Maverick showed her grappling superiority, securing a Rear Naked Choke in under three minutes and barely breaking sweat. More than three years have passed since, but Young does not appear to have made any major defensive improvements to suggest she will have any greater a chance of survival this weekend.
Due to the result of their first encounter, Maverick currently sits as a 1/7 favourite – the shortest priced fighter on the UFC Vegas 64 card. However, with Women’s MMA typically containing fewer finishes, there is clear value to be found in backing MAVERICK TO WIN INSIDE THE DISTANCE at evens. For a more specific yet appealing wager, backing MAVERICK TO WIN BY SUBMISSION at 13/8 is also recommended for a portion of the stake.
Posted at 1305 GMT on 04/11/22
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