Will Dean previews Saturday night's UFC Vegas 63, where British fans will be hoping for a coming-of-age win for Arnold Allen.
UFC betting tips: Saturday October 29
3pts Arnold Allen vs Calvin Kattar to go to decision at 4/5 (General)
1pt Andrei Arlovski to win by decision at 3/1 (General)
All eyes on Allen
As the year draws to a close, British MMA fans will look back on 2022 as potentially the nation’s most prosperous chapter in the UFC to date.
Leon Edwards dethroned the pound-for-pound best cage fighter on the planet, Paddy Pimblett became one of the sport’s biggest names, Tom Aspinall looks set to be a potential future champion, and Molly McCann delivered back-to-back Knockout of the Year candidates.
Many will already have their sights set on what triumphs lie ahead for our fighters next year, but Arnold Allen still has business to attend to this Saturday night.
Almighty looks to be growing into his prime, and his increasingly impressive wins inside the Octagon certainly validate the claim. In the last 18 months he has scored victories over Sodiq Yusuff and Dan Hooker, finishing the latter with strikes in just over half a round. A successful outing against Boston’s Calvin Kattar would firmly imprint Allen in the Featherweight title picture, where the title could soon be vacated if Alexander Volkanovski moves up to a higher division.
With that being said, Kattar is a stiff test for the 18-1 Londoner, having fought at the top of the division for years and a perennial title challenger in his own right. Unfortunately for Kattar, few can forget the one-sided demolition he suffered at the hands of Max Holloway just under two years ago, with the Hawaiian setting eight different striking records that have yet to be beaten.
Kattar’s boxing is amongst the division’s best, but Allen is the more diverse and defensively aware of Saturday night’s main event duo. With six of his eight UFC wins coming via the judges, Allen has demonstrated excellent game-planning and fight IQ, which will be integral against a tough and durable opponent like Kattar.
The whole of the UK will be rooting for Allen, but this fight really should be as close as the odds indicate. Instead of choosing a winner, backing the FIGHT TO GO TO A DECISION at 4/5 is a much more appealing prospect, given the durability and lack of prolific finishing that both men have demonstrated so far.
Life in the old dog yet
Unlike the boxing world, the Heavyweight division of Mixed Martial Arts appears to have lost its appeal to diehard fans of the sport. Of course, the intrigue of watching the ‘baddest men on the planet’ compete at the highest level will always draw viewers in, but the overall division has been lacking in depth for quite some time.
In other weight classes in the UFC, the top 15 hosts a variety of well-rounded and athletically gifted fighters who could potentially one day reign over their peers. The Heavyweight list is uninspiring by comparison.
ANDREI ARLOVSKI has been one of the few people to profit from this, as the now 43-year-old has been enjoying relatively risk-free bouts on the preliminaries for the last five years.
The Pitbull has enjoyed a long and prosperous career in MMA, claiming the UFC Heavyweight title in 2005 and competing at the summit of numerous organisations for a whole 12 years thereafter. However in 2017, having suffered five losses in a row (with four coming by knockout) and looking close to retirement, Arlovski made a choice to remove himself from the hunt for UFC gold and instead focus on facing the division’s up-and-comers.
What came next was one of the most remarkable turnarounds in UFC history as Arlovski, who had been finished in 11 of his 15 professional losses at this point, went the distance in 13 of his next 15 bouts, emerging victorious in more than half of them. For some reason this step down in competition suited The Pitbull perfectly, where he was able to use his veteran experience to lull hard-hitting opponents into slow-paced, closely contested affairs.
Saturday night’s showdown with Marcos Rogerio de Lima will be no different, as Arlovski looks to secure his fifth consecutive victory. His Brazilian opponent has looked powerful and imposing inside the Octagon so far, but fighters seem to approach Arlovski in a such a different way that referencing previous performances feels somewhat redundant here.
With that in mind, backing ANDREI ARLOVSKI TO WIN BY DECISION at 3/1 is an eye-catching proposition.
If the Belarusian fighter does not get knocked out early then this fight could become much closer than the odds indicate, so siding with the more proven point fighter at the better price is a comfortable position to be in.
Posted at 1530 BST on 27/10/22
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