Will Dean previews this weekend's action in UFC 291, which features Dustin Poirier and Justin Gaethje.
MMA betting tips: UFC 291
2pts Dustin Poirier v Justin Gaethje to last Over 2.5 Rounds at 10/11 (Sky Bet)
2pts Jan Blachowicz to win at 10/11 (Betway, Betfred)
2pts Michael Chiesa to win by Submission or Decision at 7/4 (bet365)
BMF Brawl
With the retirement of Jorge Masvidal now made official, UFC 291’s main event will see Dustin Poirier and Justin Gaethje compete for the ‘BMF’ title. Whilst the belt and accolade merely exist for novelty and promotional reasons, fans of the sport would struggle to think of two competitors more worthy of such honours than the Lightweight duo, having collected a combined 24 post-fight bonuses across 39 UFC bouts.
Of course, Poirier and Gaethje have already competed against one another before, in a 2018 classic that also earnt Fight of the Night acclaim. The former ultimately emerged as the victor that night, scoring a TKO finish in the first minute of the fourth round. The fight played out as many expected, with Gaethje’s brutal leg kicks and suffocating pressure being marginally bested by Poirier’s counter-striking and superior volume. The longer the fight went, the more The Diamond was able to establish his dominance.
Five years may have passed since that initial encounter, but Saturday night’s main event is expected to unfold in a very similar manner. Gaethje has improved his striking in a technical capacity since their 2018 clash, but both men’s striking styles and paths to victory remain unchanged. An argument could be made that Poirier’s motivations are not what they once were, with The Diamond now 34-years-old, firmly out of the title picture, and lacking in fresh challenges in the division. Gaethje, on the other hand, still appears to be making strides towards another title shot and would clearly be in contention with a commanding win here.
With a winner hard to predict in this fight, attention turns instead to the durational markets. Both men are known for their dangerous striking and finishing ability, but in the context of this fight, an early finish for either man does appear to be slightly over-exaggerated in the betting. Perhaps one of the most credible reasons that both men are in contention for the ‘BMF’ title is their durability in the midst of brawls, with Poirier and Gaethje suffering a combined four TKO/KO losses from 64 professional bouts. Backing such durability has been a profitable outcome throughout their whole careers, so siding with the fight to last OVER 2.5 ROUNDS certainly appeals at 10/11.
Weight and See
Alex Pereira has been blockbuster entertainment since making his UFC debut. With his career centred around his combat sports saga with Israel Adesanya, Poatan rose through the Middleweight rankings and dethroned the dominant champion at the end of 2022. However, the immediate rematch saw The Last Stylebender instantly reclaim his belt with a KO victory of his own, prompting Pereira to re-assess his options and ultimately decide to move up to the Light Heavyweight division. Shortly after making the announcement, the Brazilian was booked to fight Poland’s Jan Blachowicz on this Saturday’s card.
Blachowicz has his own ties to Middleweight’s Adesanya, who moved up in weight in an attempt to claim double champion status in 2021. The difference in both fighter’s physicality proved too much of a hurdle for Adesanya to overcome in that fight, but Pereira is unlikely to suffer the same fate here. Poatan was always oversized for the 185lbs division, and reportedly weighs slightly more than a Light Heavyweight fighter outside of competition anyway.
The switch in weight divisions does come with some complications for Pereira though, as it will force the Brazilian to compete against a legitimate grappling threat for the first time in his UFC career. It was no secret that the UFC signed Pereira to re-ignite his feud with Adesanya, which led to them carefully guiding his ascent up the rankings and keeping him away from opponents that caused a stylistic threat. Poatan is a pure kickboxer that is still learning and growing his MMA skillset, and there were many opponents that could have easily beaten him with a grappling approach when he was at Middleweight. With the feud against Adesanya now put to bed, Pereira will have to fend for himself as he faces a truly well-rounded opponent here.
Blachowicz really can make this fight easy if he commits to landing takedowns, and that is enough for me to side with him here. The Polish fighter still has the striking ability and power to compete on the feet but proved himself intelligent enough to take the path of least resistance when he faced Adesanya years ago. With a similar path available on Saturday night, backing JAN BLACHOWICZ TO WIN at 10/11 could easily look like a high value bet come the end of the night.
Checkmate by Chiesa
The main card kicks off with an intriguing clash of styles, as high-level grappler Michael Chiesa faces off against the dangerous and opportunistic striking of Kevin Holland.
Holland’s journey within the promotion has been one of the most interesting in recent times, as his grueling schedule saw him tie the record for most UFC victories inside a calendar year in 2020. Having elevated himself above the rest of the cohort fighting on the preliminaries, Holland soon stepped into the division’s top 15 – where a massive deficiency in the grappling department showed he was clearly outmatched against the elite of the weight class. Holland’s stock plummeted as he suffered losses to Marvin Vettori and Derek Brunson within the span of two months, suffering 17 takedowns and giving up 37 minutes of control time in the process.
The UFC have done a great job of booking Holland in competitive fights since those losses (aside from a two minute submission loss to Khamzat Chimaev), allowing him to showcase his high level striking without the fear of being flat on his back. That all changes on Saturday night, as Holland faces the first pure grappler since Chimaev, Vettori and Brunson.
In my opinion, Chiesa fails to receive the respect and credit he deserves as both a high-level grappler, and an entertaining fighter. Maverick has been far less active than Holland in recent years, but submission victories against the likes of Beneil Dariush and Jim Miller still stand out on his record regardless.
Holland’s reputation as a fan favourite and his recent performances against fellow strikers have presented us with a strong case of recency bias and were this fight taking place a few years ago it would make sense seeing Chiesa as an odds-on favourite. The market has seen some correction, with money steadily coming in on Chiesa since odds were released, but I believe there is still plenty of value still available. Backing MICHAEL CHIESA TO WIN BY SUBMISSION OR DECISION at 7/4 therefore appeals as one of the best bets on the entire card.
In a similar conclusion to Blachowicz’s chances of success against Pereira, Chiesa has the opportunity to make this fight look astoundingly easy, as long as he can settle Holland on his back.
Posted at 2230 GMT on 27/07/23
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