Will Dean previews this weekend's UFC 288, where Henry Cejudo comes out of retirement for a fight which should play to his strengths.
MMA betting tips: UFC 288
2pts Henry Cejudo to win in rounds 4, 5 or by decision at 13/8 (Paddy Power, Betfair)
2pts Belal Muhammad to win in rounds 4, 5 or by decision at 17/10 (Paddy Power, Betfair)
Good as gold
The UFC’s Bantamweight division was thrown into disarray in 2020 when dominant champion and Olympic Gold medallist HENRY CEJUDO shockingly retired from the sport in his prime.
Establishing the next champion soon became one of the most complicated sagas in UFC history, with Aljamain Sterling claiming the belt via a disqualification victory over Petr Yan. Sterling has since gone on to defeat Yan again as well as former champion TJ Dillashaw, aligning himself as the true ruler of this era at 135lbs, but Cejudo has now chosen to return after three years in an attempt to reclaim the belt he never lost.
Some MMA fans believe Cejudo should be considered one of the best combat sports athletes of all time, due to holding the highest accolade in Olympic-level Wrestling, as well as double-champion status in MMA. Two other men who often appear in the debate are Jon Jones and Georges St. Pierre, whose latest wins inside the UFC’s Octagon closely resemble the challenge that Cejudo faces on Saturday night. Both men returned after long lay-offs to face off against the division’s top dog in a title fight, with both emerging victorious.
There was obviously a justifiable amount of uncertainty in the build up to each man’s return fight, but Cejudo, like GSP and Jones before him, has kept himself in great shape and has remained active as a coach and training partner in the gym. Triple C’s retirement plans didn’t even last particularly long and it seems he had been planning his return fight for quite some time.
Assuming Cejudo returns to the Octagon in the same condition he left it, he has a stylistically favourable opponent in front of him in Sterling. Funk Master is one of MMA’s best grapplers, but forcing a former Olympian to the canvas and keeping him there is a supremely tall order. In fact, Cejudo has defended 93% of the takedowns he faced across his 12-fight UFC career, with Demetrious Johnson being the only man to ever force him to the mat – and Cejudo got back to his feet less than five seconds later.
On the other hand, Cejudo should have no issue in overcoming Sterling’s 41% takedown defence rate and establishing a dominant position on top. He will have to be wary of the defending champion’s sweeps and submissions, but Cejudo is a more than capable grappler in his own right.
The striking exchanges in this fight should be hotly contested, but Sterling has consistently struggled to pace himself in five-round fights. He begins each fight with an impressive display of pace, pressure and output, but begins to slow at some point in the third round as his front-loaded style comes back to haunt him. If Cejudo is as well conditioned as we he was in his initial title win over Johnson, he should be able to stay in the fight against Sterling’s early barrage, before turning the tide in the second half of the fight.
Yan looked to be on his way to overcoming Sterling’s strong start before the illegal knee saw him get disqualified, and the Russian confidently won rounds four and five in the rematch. If Cejudo is still in the fight by the time they enter the championship rounds, I wouldn’t be surprised if we see a late stoppage from Triple C, or at least a more one sided display that the judges should score in his favour. If the former champion can win any of the opening three rounds, the decision should likely be his.
For that reason, backing CEJUDO TO WIN IN ROUNDS 4, 5 or BY DECISION at 13/8 is the best bet for UFC 288’s hotly anticipated main event.
Belal to stake his claim
After UFC 288’s original co-headliner of Charles Oliveira v Beneil Dariush fell through, two men on the periphery of the Welterweight title picture instantly stepped up to demand a five-round fight against one another in its place.
Gilbert Burns, fresh off a one-sided victory against Jorge Masvidal at the last UFC PPV event, is certainly deserving of an eventual title shot against Leon Edwards, but BELAL MUHAMMAD also feels his eight-fight winning streak is more than enough to see him at the front of the queue.
Fans and fighters alike were perplexed by Dana White’s decision to grant Colby Covington the next opportunity to compete against Edwards, forcing the rest of the division’s hopefuls to sort out the pecking order amongst themselves. With a victory for either Burns or Muhammad on Saturday night, the case for the next title shot should be undeniable.
It’s no surprise that both men have risen to the top of the division, given their supremely well-rounded skillsets. Burns has received more acclaim for his high-level submission threat, but the Brazilian has already accrued a few losses to the elite names at 170lbs, including Kamaru Usman and Khamzat Chimaev. Muhammad’s stock seems to suffer the opposite effect, as his very impressive record is somewhat overshadowed by his tendency to win competently on the scorecards and failure to excite fans in the process.
This fight is therefore mostly a battle between Burns’ finishing ability and Muhammad’s ‘Jack-of-all-trades’ approach, and I think it slightly favours the latter. Muhammad has incredibly good takedown defence and excellent durability, which should make it much harder for Burns to rely on winning via stoppage.
When considering who might win the fight should it go the distance, Muhammad is by far the more likely of the two. His cardio should be perfect for a 25-minute bout, whereas Burns has shown signs of struggling in the late stages of a 15-minute affair. As long as the Chicago-born fighter can stay out of danger, as he has done in 24 of his 25 professional fights, he should be able to pull away down the stretch – resulting in a late stoppage in the Championship rounds or a clear decision victory on the scorecards.
Muhammad’s path to victory closely resembles that of Cejudo’s in the main event, so backing MUHAMMAD TO WIN IN ROUNDS 4, 5 or BY DECISION at 17/10 makes similar appeal.
Posted at 1105 BST on 05/05/23
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